Week 4 College Football Picks Against the Spread
- Week 4 of College Football features a large slate on Saturday, September 25th
- Notre Dame and Wisconsin clash at a neutral site, while SMU visits TCU
- Read below for the best ATS picks for Week 4 of the college football season
Week 4 of the 2021 College Football season features an intriguing lineup of games on Saturday, September 25th. The large slate is highlighted by a neutral site clash between Wisconsin and Notre Dame.
Elsewhere around the country, Tanner Mordecai and SMU are listed as large road underdogs at TCU. In the ACC, Louisville and FSU clash in a virtual pick’em.
Here are betting odds and four ATS picks to consider for Week 4.
Notre Dame vs Wisconsin Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | +6.5 (-110) | +190 | O 46.5 (-115) |
| No. 18 Wisconsin Badgers | -6.5 (-110) | -235 | U 46.5 (-105) |
All odds as of Sept 22nd at DraftKings
Pick #1: Badgers Run Over Irish
Wisconsin is listed as near touchdown favorites against Notre Dame at Soldier Field on Saturday. As long as the line doesn’t get over that key number, the Badgers offer good value to win by at least one score. Wisconsin boasts a dominant running attack that should exploit a Notre Dame rush defense allowing 148.3 yards per game.
Wisconsin’ offense struggled against an elite Penn State team in Week 1, but it bounced back in Week 3 against Eastern Michigan. Junior RB Chez Mellusi went off for 144 yards, while Isaac Guerendo had 94 yards of his own. Wisconsin’s offensive line will dominate Notre Dame’s weak defensive front, creating time and space for both the running backs and QB Graham Mertz.
A Week 2 #CFB Top Performance
RB Chez Mellusi – Wisconsin
• 144 rushing yards 1 TD (7.2 ypc) pic.twitter.com/kttMOsql0z
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) September 13, 2021
Notre Dame has long been known for their ability to control the line of scrimmage, but this isn’t the Irish team of year’s past. Notre Dame is averaging just 105.7 rushing yards per game and have allowed a whopping 15 sacks through three contests. They won’t be able to generate much on the ground vs an elite Badgers rush defense allowing just 33 yards per game.
While this may be a revenge game for Notre Dame QB Jack Coan, there’s no team that knows him better than Wisconsin. The Badgers defense will bring the pressure on the fairly non-mobile pivot and force him to make a few mistakes. Wisconsin leads the nation in time of possession and they’ll control the lines of scrimmage en-route to a touchdown victory.
- Pick: Wisconsin -6.5 (-110)
SMU vs TCU Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | +9.5 (-110) | +290 | O 64 (-110) |
| TCU Horned Frogs | -9.5 (-110) | -380 | U 64 (-110) |
Pick #2: Mustangs Upset Horned Frogs
SMU is being given 10 points against TCU in Week 4 in a matchup they have a decent chance at winning outright. The Mustangs boast one of the most electrifying offenses in college football, averaging 44 points and 539 yards per game. They land a solid matchup against an average TCU defense allowing 290 yards per game.
SMU has the weapons on offense to at least keep this within the number. Oklahoma transfer QB Tanner Mordecai has already thrown for over 1,000 yards, while RB Ulysses Bentley IV has rushed for 250 yards. They’ll have a big day against a TCU defense that surrendered over 400 yards to a mediocre Cal offense last time out.
SMU’s Tanner Mordecai so far this season:
♨️ 4 TDs, 344 total YDS vs. UNT (W)
♨️ 7 TDs, 317 YDS vs. ACU (W)
♨️ 5 TDs, 446 total YDS vs. LA Tech (W)UNREAL 😤 pic.twitter.com/9zIHPVhdml
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 18, 2021
The Mustangs are getting a bit disrespected with this line, as they’ve covered the spread in two of three games thus far. TCU is 0-2 ATS this season and struggled in the secondary during Week 2. The Horned Frogs’ vulnerability to big plays was on full display last time out, and it will be several deep balls from Mordecai that keeps this one within the number.
- Pick: SMU +9.5 (-110)
Louisville vs Florida State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | -2 (-110) | -120 | O 62.5 (-110) |
| Florida State Seminoles | +2 (-110) | +100 | U 62.5 (-110) |
Pick #3: Cardinals Torch Seminoles
Florida State will look for their first victory over the 2021 season when they welcome Louisville to Doak Campbell Stadium in Week 4. The Seminoles are coming off a brutal 35-14 loss to Wake Forest in which they surrendered almost 500 yards of total offense. Louisville, meanwhile, is 2-1 on the season after an impressive Week 3 victory over UCF.
Louisville likely should’ve opened as heavier favorites, but there are reasons oddsmakers are treading lightly. The Cardinals opened up the season with three games in 12 games and QB Malik Cunningham got banged up in the second half against UCF. This is still a quality team that should handle the Seminoles by at least a field goal.
FSU is getting respected based on the fact they almost beat a Notre Dame team that we now know isn’t very good. The reality is that FSU is a struggling program that doesn’t exude confidence – even at home. QB McKenzie Milton is a great story, but he’s already thrown three picks and needs more starts before he’s back up to full speed.
Cunningham, who has racked up almost 1,000 yards of total offense, is a warrior and expected to suit up Saturday. He’ll be aided by some very talented playmakers in RB Jalen Mitchell and WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce. It may seem like a clear trap game for Louisville on the surface, but with a dual-threat pivot like Cunningham at the helm, the Cardinals should fly out of FSU with a victory.
- Pick: Louisville -2 (-110)
LSU vs Mississippi State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU Tigers | -2.5 (-110) | -140 | O 56 (-115) |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | +2.5 (-110) | +120 | U 56 (-105) |
Pick #4: Bulldogs Bounce Back vs Tigers
Mississippi State is in a prime bounce-back spot against LSU in Week 4 after losing a heartbreaker to Memphis last weekend. Following the loss, SEC officials admitted that a 94-yard punt return from Memphis late in the fourth quarter should have been overturned. While Mike Leach’s team can’t change the past, they can take out their frustration on the Tigers at Davis Wade Stadium.
Week 4⃣ #HailState🐶 pic.twitter.com/m1CAwkPf0V
— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) September 20, 2021
Mississippi State and LSU are two of the worst rushing teams in the SEC, which means this game should be decided by quarterback play and defense. Bulldogs QB Will Rodgers has thrown for more yards and been more accurate than LSU QB Max Johnson this year. In Johnson’s lone road start against UCLA, he got eaten up by the Bruins’ defense.
Both defense are allowing around 400 yards per game, but the Bulldogs have played the tougher schedule. One key stat in this game is Mississippi State leads the SEC in third-down defense and will face an LSU offense converting only 38% of its third downs. In a game between two high-powered offenses, the Bulldogs defense will come up with just a few extra stops to secure the victory.
- Pick: Mississippi State (+2.5) (-110)
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
