Week 5 College Football Picks Against the Spread

• Week 5 of college football features an enticing Saturday slate on Sept. 30
• Notre Dame is in a letdown spot against Duke, while Oklahoma battles Iowa State
• Read below for expert Week 5 college football picks against the spread

Week 5 of the 2023 college football season features several games with ATS betting value, including a letdown spot and a Big 12 rivalry game. We’ve collected our three top CFB picks against the spread to help you make money Saturday.

Among our top college football picks against the spread this weekend is a play on the No. 17 Duke Blue Devils as they aim to upset the No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. We’re also backing a couple of Big 12 underdogs that offer value to stay within the number.

Let’s dive into our top college football picks against the spread for Week 5 (Saturday, September 30th).

Notre Dame vs Duke Odds

All odds as of September 27th, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Browse the top sports betting sites for college football against the spread betting. Bettors in the Bluegrass State should check out Kentucky sports betting ahead of the September 28th launch. 

Pick #1: Duke (+5.5) vs Notre Dame

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in a potential letdown spot in CFB Week 5 following a heartbreaking loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes last weekend. UND must now travel to Durham, North Carolina to face a Duke team that is playing with plenty of confidence following a 4-0 start.

Many CFB experts were chalking up Duke’s Week 1 win over Clemson as the Tigers just being a bad team, but we saw this past weekend in their overtime loss to #4 Florida State that Clemson can still compete with the top programs in the country.

Duke’s defense is only allowing 9.33 points per game so far this season, and we’re unsure just how much energy this UND offense will have following their gruelling game against Ohio State. The Dukes have 29:55 of average possession, which means they’ll be able to slow the game down and control the clock.

Duke is on a remarkable 7-1 ATS run dating back to last season, and we don’t see a reason to buck the trend as they return him to face the Irish. The Blue Devils are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) conference.

If you’re looking for one final reason to take Duke against the spread, consider that quarterback Riley Leonard is completing 68% of his passes for 778 yards and two TDs with no picks. This has all the making of a hard-fought one-possession battle decided by a late field goal.

• Pick: Duke +5.5 (-110)

Iowa State vs Oklahoma Odds

We just barely cashed our +14.5 Cincinaitti against the spread pick against Oklahoma last weekend, and we’re fading the Sooners once again in our Week 5 CFB ATS picks. While OU should get the victory over the Cyclone, this betting line is too high for what typically has been a tightly contested rivalry.

The last three games in this Big 12 matchup have seen Oklahoma defeat Iowa State by an average margin of nine points. Yes, the two teams are heading in different directions this season, but there’s something about Matt Campbell’s team that gives Oklahoma trouble.

Matt Campbell's opening answer today on what he sees in Oklahoma and quarterback Dillon Gabriel. pic.twitter.com/qenQhdQYmL

— CycloneFanatic.com (@cyclonefanatic) September 26, 2023

A big reason we’re taking ISU to cover the spread is the play of the Cyclones’ defense. They are only allowing 13 points per game and an average of 134 passing yards. This is notable facing a pass-first QB like Dillon Gabriel, who threw for just one TD against Cincinnati’s stingy defense.

We’re well aware the ISU offense is only averaging 16.7 points per game, but their passing attack is having more success than their rushing attack. With the Cyclones possessing a talented WR room led by veteran Jaylion Noel, we expect them to find success against an OU defense that is top-five in the Big 12 when it comes to rushing, but bottom-five in passing.

• Pick: Iowa State +20 (-110)

Houston vs Texas Tech Odds

Concluding our Week 5 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Houston Cougars as significant underdogs against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. This line has come down to TTU -8 after opening at -10, but we still feel there’s some value left on HOU at over a touchdown.

The Red Raiders have really struggled defensively this season, allowing 24 points and 347.5 yards per game. In last weekend’s game against West Virginia, the Red Raiders were exploited on the ground for 157 yards by the Mountaineers.

Final: WVU 20, TTU 13

Back home next week vs Houston. pic.twitter.com/Grlwc1jd3L

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) September 23, 2023

The Cougars have an experienced QB in Donavan Smith, who is completing 62.3% of his passes for 1,012 yards and five TDS this season. We expect him to find success through the air against a TTU secondary allowing 226 yards per game.

Texas Tech is on a five-game winning streak in this rivalry, but the 2022 meeting was a wild 33-30 overtime affair in Lubbock. That game featured Donovan Smith under center for the other side, creating a fascinating storyline for this 2023 battle.

• Pick: Houston +8.5 (-110)

Current CFB ATS Picks Record: 6-9

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