Wisconsin vs Northwestern Picks and Odds

• Wisconsin and Northwestern take the field in a critical matchup in the Big Ten’s West division on Saturday, Nov. 21st, at 3:30 PM EST
• The Badgers (2-0) and Wildcats (4-0) have been two of the best defensive teams in the country so far this season
• Check out the odds for the game and key information about the matchup in the article below

It’s too early to say that the Big Ten’s West division is on the line, but the winner of Saturday’s matchup between Wisconsin and Northwestern (kickoff at 3:30 PM EST) will certainly put itself in great shape to punch a ticket to the conference title game.

Neither the Badgers nor the Wildcats have lost yet — but they also haven’t faced as formidable an opponent as each other. On paper, this has a chance to be a really good one.

Northwestern is the host, but Wisconsin are the 8.5-point favorites. Here’s a look at the odds for this hotly anticipated matchup:

Wisconsin #10 vs Northwestern #19 Week 12 Odds

Odds taken Nov. 18 at FanDuel

Head-to-Head History

Northwestern is no stranger to playing the underdog in this matchup, having filled that role in each of the last 10 meetings (dating back to 2006). The Wildcats have covered the spread in five of the past six games against the Badgers, including last year’s 24-15 win for Wisconsin (Northwestern had been 23-point underdogs).

A lot of the key characters from that game are gone. Both teams have new starting quarterbacks and a handful of new receivers. Oh, and Wisconsin lost its bell-cow running back, Jonathan Taylor, to the NFL.

One notable returnee, at least for Northwestern, is linebacker Chris Bergin. He leads the Wildcats in total tackles in 2020, averaging nine per game. Northwestern also has both of its top running backs from a year ago: Drake Anderson and Isaiah Bowser.

ATS Analysis

As you already know, both teams are perfect in terms of straight-up records this year. Their records against the spread are pretty good, too.

Wisconsin has covered — no, obliterated — both spreads so far this season. Favored by a combined 27.5 points, the Badgers have won by a total of 76.

Here's how we're coming 😤

Wisconsin at Michigan Highlights 🎥#OnWisconsin » #Badgers pic.twitter.com/90bCpt0O4M

— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) November 16, 2020

Northwestern is 3-0-1 against the spread, pushing on a 21-20 win at Iowa a few weeks ago. The Wildcats’ three victories have cleared the spread by 26, four, and three, respectively. They have not yet been an underdog.

Things to remember for Wisconsin Week:

• NU is 5-1 vs. the Badgers at Ryan Field in the last six meetings
• Last time NU and UW met as ranked opponents in Evanston: Oct. 21, 1995. @coachfitz51 was a LB and @KirkHerbstreit was a rising sideline reporter for ESPN2#GoCats pic.twitter.com/bIFnYW2z1h

— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) November 16, 2020

In terms of over/under marks, the contrast is clear: both Badgers games have hit the over, while all four Wildcats games have hit the under. Wisconsin is holding opponents to just nine points per game so far (best in NCAA), but they are also blowing them out of the water with 47 points per game (third in NCAA).

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not

Graham Mertz, Wisconsin’s redshirt freshman quarterback, is undoubtedly the hottest player in this matchup. He has seven touchdowns versus no interceptions and is completing passes at a 74.4 percent clip.

Northwestern’s defense as a whole is hot, but it’s hard to just pick one player. Eight Wildcats have combined to force 10 turnovers so far in a true team effort.

Call of the Game 📞

Eku with the strip. Paddy with the scoop. 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐤𝐞 '𝐧 𝐁𝐚𝐤𝐞.#GoCats | @jerseymikes pic.twitter.com/a5YjnsQIOk

— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) November 16, 2020

What’s lacking for Northwestern is a potent run game. Even with the return of Anderson and Bowser, Northwestern is averaging a pedestrian 3.6 yards per carry. Anderson went for 68 yards and a score on 16 carries last year, and the Wildcats will need that or more if they want to win this one.

Of course, you don’t need Northwestern to win outright in order to justify picking them. The Wildcats have covered consistently against the Badgers in recent seasons, and we like them as 8.5-point home underdogs to keep it rolling again this time around.

Pick: Northwestern +8.5 (-128)