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Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Oct 2, 2020 · 9:19 AM PDT

Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts have won consecutive games by a total of 46 points. Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire.
  • Our Best Bets were 0-3 in Week 3 (4-5 overall, -1.41 units)
  •  Indianapolis allows the fewest yards per pass and is PFF’s number one ranked coverage unit
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 4 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks

We all knew this NFL season was going to be different from a betting perspective, but through three weeks the results are pretty surprising. Home teams are 24-24 against the spread, as are away teams. Home underdogs are 8-8 ATS, while home favorites are 16-16.

Of course, there’s no guarantee these trends will continue, but one thing’s for sure, with no crowds home field doesn’t mean as much as it used to. For now, silent counts are a thing of the past, and road teams won’t be at a disadvantage when playing in what are normally deafening environments.

That’s good news for the Indianapolis Colts, as they’ll travel to Soldier Field in Week 4, looking to hand the Chicago Bears their first loss of the season.

Pick #1: Colts Cruise Past Bears

After a shocking Week 1 loss in Jacksonville, Indy has rebounded with blowout victories over Minnesota and the New York Jets.

Chicago meanwhile, has snatched victory from the jaws defeat in both Weeks 1 and 3, erasing multi-touchdown deficits each time.

Last week versus Atlanta, Nick Foles replaced Mitch Trubisky to cue a 4th quarter comeback, and it will be Foles who gets the nod against Indianapolis. Chicago opened up as a 2.5-point underdog in the Colts vs Bears odds, and that’s exactly where the line currently sits.

Colts vs Bears Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-105) -138 Over 43.0 (-110)
Chicago Bears +2.5 (-115) +118 Under 43.0 (-110)

All odds taken Oct. 1st at FanDuel

The sportsbooks aren’t buying the Bears 3-0 start, and it’s hard to blame them. Chicago has won each of its first three games by four points, and ranks 17th in DVOA. Their offense is 25th in yards per play (5.3), and ESPN’s win expectancy model ranks the Bears as the NFL’s 25th best team.

Indianapolis on the other hand, boasts the league’s top ranked defense by DVOA, and Pro Football Focus’ number one coverage unit. They’ve forced nine turnovers in three games, and allow the fewest yards per pass in the league.

On offense, the Colts are built to run the football which is a recipe for success against this Chicago defense. The Bears surrendered 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Atlanta last week, and are allowing enemy backs to run for 5.0 yards a carry.

This game projects to be a low scoring, smash mouth affair, which is exactly the kind of football Indianapolis excels at.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-105)

Pick #2: Dolphins Surprise Seahawks

Everybody is in love with Russell Wilson at the moment and it’s hard to blame them. The Seattle Seahawks are letting Russ cook and he’s responded with 925 passing yards and 14 TD in just three games.

But despite the Russ for MVP movement and the Seahawks’ 3-0 start, something interesting is happening in the betting market. Seattle opened as a 6.5-point road favorite in the Seahawks vs Dolphins odds, but the line is moving towards Miami.

Seahawks vs Dolphins Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Seattle Seahawks -6.0 (-110) -280 Over 54.5 (-105)
Miami Dolphins +6.0 (-110) +230 Under 54.5 (-115)

Now let’s not kid ourselves, the live move towards the Dolphins has nothing to do with Russ or the offense. Seattle is averaging 37 points and 408 yards of offense per contest. The problem is on defense.

The Seahawks have given up the most passing yards in NFL history through three games (1,292) and are allowing 28.7 points per game. They rank 31st in yards per pass allowed, 20th in completion percentage allowed and their pass rush is non existent. Seattle ranks 27th in pressure rate, despite blitzing at the league’s seventh highest clip.

Miami meanwhile, is certainly no juggernaut, but they are 2-1 ATS after a convincing win over Jacksonville. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been proving people wrong for 15 years, and has been a top-10 quarterback in two of three weeks this season.

Dating back to last season, he’s been a top-10 quarterback in nine of his past 14 starts and this is by far his softest matchup of the season. It may not be pretty, but Miami can certainly keep this game close.

Pick: Dolphins +6 (-110)

Pick #3: Browns Over Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter their Week 4 matchup against the Cleveland Browns with a laundry list of injuries. Their O-line has been decimated, and they’ll be without two starting linebackers and a pair of starting corners.

Despite the injury issues, Dallas still opened up as a 5-point favorite in the Browns vs Cowboys odds, although the line is moving in Cleveland’s favor.

Browns vs Cowboys Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Cleveland Browns +4.5 (-110) +190 Over 56.5 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-110) -225 Under 56.5 (-110)

This game features the highest total on the Sunday slate, and Cleveland’s offense is set up for success. The Browns have scored at least 34 points in back-to-back games, while Dallas has allowed 67 points over its past two outings.

The Cowboys have the 17th ranked defense by DVOA and are a mess against the pass. They’ll trot out PFF’s 31st ranked pass rush unit and only four teams have a worse coverage grade.

Dallas has been overcoming these defensive deficiencies by scoring at an elite rate, but Cleveland has the pieces to slow down the Cowboys offense.  The Browns run defense has limited opposing backs to just 3.25 yards per carry and their pass rush is rated sixth by PFF. Dak Prescott has taken the sixth most QB hits so far, and will see a heavy dose of edge rushers Oliver Vernon and Myles Garrett.

Pick: Cleveland Browns (+4.5)

Week 4 Quick Hitters

  • Washington (+14) vs Ravens: A potential trap game for Baltimore on a short week following its loss to the champs
  • Bengals (-3) vs Jaguars: Joe Burrow gets his first NFL victory against a Jacksonville team that was just exposed by Miami
  • Buccaneers (-7) vs Chargers: Tampa Bay’s defense will feast on mistake prone Justin Herbert, setting up short field for Tom Brady and the offense
  • Vikings (+3.5) vs Texans: Houston allows a league worst 188.3 rushing yards per game and Minnesota and Dalvin Cook are built to run the football
  • Lions (+4) vs Saints: New Orleans’ D has looked pitiful the past two weeks, while Detroit is a dropped TD pass away from being 2-1
  • Cardinals (-3) vs Panthers: Kyler Murray feasts on zone defenses and should have his way with a Carolina unit that’s allowed the ninth most pass yards
  • Rams (-12.5) vs Giants: New York has yet to produce more than 16 points in a game, while if not for a questionable PI call in the dying seconds last week, LA would be 3-0
  • Bills (-3) vs Raiders: Josh Allen is playing at an elite level and should expose a Las Vegas defense that’s allowed the league’s eighth most points
  • Chiefs (-6.5) vs Patriots: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have averaged 31.3 points per game in their last three meetings vs Bill Belichick’s defenses
  • Eagles (+7) vs 49ers: Both of these teams are decimated by injuries and even though San Fran is fresh off back-to-back blowouts this feels like too many points to lay
  • Packers (-7) vs Falcons: The Falcons defense is a train wreck. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is PFF’s highest graded QB and Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and points per game
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