After Week 7, Aaron Rodgers Is the New NFL MVP Favorite; Wilson Close Behind, Mahomes’ Odds Fade to +1600

• Patrick Mahomes was out last week but still leads the league in passing yards.
• Aaron Rodgers is coming off a game where he picked up six total touchdowns.
• Lamar Jackson is on pace for 5,008 yards and is being overlooked as a possible MVP candidate.

Early on, it looked like Patrick Mahomes was an easy shoe-in to win the MVP award, but things change quickly in the NFL.

As we move into Week 8 of the season, it’s Aaron Rodgers who is the favorite, according to the NFL MVP odds, with Wilson still as his main competition.

Which player is the best bet as we near the midpoint of the season?

2019 NFL MVP Odds

*Odds taken 10/22/19

Mahomes MVP Chances Fade

Mahomes was long the favorite to win this award. After all, he was the reigning NFL MVP from last season when he threw for 50 touchdowns. It looked like his momentum carried over through to 2019 when he started the year with 10 touchdowns in his first three games but he’s fallen off ever since.

Not only has Mahomes thrown for just five touchdowns in his last four games, he’s also injured his knee.

We’re not sure exactly when he’ll be back but at a minimum, he’s expected to miss three games. Even though he’s already missed one game, he still leads the league in passing yards and is tied for the lead in touchdowns.

Tom Brady walking into this seasons Super Bowl after the Mahomes injury. pic.twitter.com/KQe2190foF

— Trash Talk NFL (@TrashTalkNFL) October 18, 2019

However, missing two more games – or possibly more – is likely to sink him in this race. We’re hearing different timelines for his return as ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported three weeks and possibly sooner. Meanwhile, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport floated three-to-five weeks as the timeline.

Rodgers Shoots Up the Board

While Mahomes has faded in recent weeks, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has shot up the board. He was at +930 entering last week and has been as high as +1400 this season.

However, he’s now the favorite at +250.

Rodgers is fresh off his best effort of the season where he threw for 429 yards and compiled a total of six touchdowns against the Oakland Raiders. The Packers have now won three in a row, including wins at Dallas and against Detroit. It’s not as if they’re beating cupcakes.

Aaron Rodgers:
– 25-for-31
– 429 yards
– 5 passing TDs
– 1 rushing TD
– Perfect 158.3 rating #OAKvsGB | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/1qtg2Ike7V

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 20, 2019

The challenge is that Rodgers just doesn’t have the MVP-caliber numbers right now. Prior to last week’s breakout, he had just eight touchdown passes in six games. Of course, he’s in a new offense and it feels like they’ve turned a corner, so the numbers could continue to get better.

Rodgers has also played four home games versus two road games, and he’ll now embark on a stretch where four of his next five are away from home. I’m not expecting more six-touchdown performances in the next few weeks. As of now, I’d pass on betting him.

Wilson Rebounding From Worst Game

In my eyes, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is still the favorite to win the MVP. The Seahawks are 5-2 and unlike the Packers, they don’t have a good defense to fall back on. The Seahawks’ success is almost solely based on what Wilson produces on the field.

So far this season, Wilson has 1,945 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, just one interception and he’s added another 178 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He had a rough game on Sunday when he threw his first interception of the year while completing just 48.8% of his passes – a season-low.

Game recognize game. @Lj_era8 & @DangeRussWilson pic.twitter.com/tICaAkeY0Z

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 21, 2019

The analytics show that this Seahawks defense is one of the worst they’ve had in two decades and the offense lacks playmakers outside of running back Chris Carson. Wilson is going to get all of the credit on this team if they succeed.

Lamar Jackson Worth a Look

My best bet on the board right now is Lamar Jackson, who is available at +900. He’s being overlooked right now but he’s putting together an MVP-caliber campaign. When you take a look at the numbers, he’s compiled 2,226 total yards with 14 touchdowns and just five interceptions. That puts him on pace for 5,088 total yards and 32 touchdowns.

The Ravens are currently 5-2 and have games against Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and the New York Jets left, which should present some opportunities for Jackson to pile up the numbers. Against any opponent, though, he should be in the 300-yard range of combined yards on a weekly basis.

“Hell yeah, Coach. Let’s go for it!” @Lj_era8 pic.twitter.com/n7WMAQqoID

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 21, 2019

What you also have to like here is that Jackson is the key to this team’s success. The defense is OK, the receivers are so-so and Mark Ingram has done a decent job at running back, but this is Jackson’s show. If this team gets to 10 or 11 wins, he’ll be among the finalists. At +900, I see good value betting him.