Broncos vs Browns Odds, Lines, and Picks for Week 7 TNF: Baker Out, Keenum Set to Start
- The Cleveland Browns are 2-point home favorites against the Denver Broncos in the Week 7 edition of NFL TNF on October 21
- TNF Betting Record: 0-0 ML; 2-2 ATS; 1-1 O/U; -0.24 units
- QB Baker Mayfield (shoulder) is out for Cleveland
The Cleveland Browns are literally limping into their NFL TNF Week 7 matchup with the Denver Broncos. Their latest setback is the news that quarterback Baker Mayfield (shoulder) is out.
Two teams in search of redemption take the field in this game. Cleveland (3-3) has lost two in a row. After a promising 3-0 start, the Broncos are idling at 3-3.
Oddsmakers are going with the hometown discount for this one. It’s the Browns who are sitting as 2-point home favorites. The Broncos are 6-0 straight up over their last six visits to Cleveland.
Broncos vs Browns Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | +108 | +2 (-110) | O 41.5 (-105) |
| Cleveland Browns | -126 | -2 (-110) | U 41.5 (-115) |
Odds as of October 20th at FanDuel
The kickoff at FirstEnergy Stadium is set for 8:20 pm ET. FOX Sports is carrying the broadcast. Cloudy skies, 6 mph wind and a temperature of 52 degrees are in the forecast.
Line Dancing
Adding the absence of Mayfield to the numerous missing pieces of the Cleveland offense is conspiring to cause a quantum leap in the betting lines on this game.
The spread shortened from Cleveland -5.5 to Browns -2. Public betting trends show 56% of the bets placed against the spread are on the Browns.
Most losses since 2017#Giants – 51#Jets – 50#Jaguars – 47#Lions – 46#Bengals – 46#Washington – 44#Broncos – 44#Browns – 42#Raiders – 41#Dolphins – 41
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) October 18, 2021
The moneyline splits are showing 88% of the moneyline bets are on the Broncos at +108 odds. Denver’s moneyline shortened from +188.
The total also got smaller, dropping from 43.5 points to 42.5. There are 82% of public bets backing the Over.
Backfield Brown Out
Mayfield is also dealing with a torn labrum on his non-throwing left shoulder. He dislocated the shoulder when sacked by JJ Watt in last week’s loss to Arizona. Veteran journeyman and former Bronco Case Keenum will start in Mayfield’s place. He’s 1-7 over his last eight starts.
The good news? Cleveland is the NFL’s #1 rushing team. The Browns have gained 1,001 yards on the ground. Cleveland is tied for the best yards per carry average (5.2) and the most rushing touchdowns (12).
Per league source, Baker Mayfield was advised against playing Thursday by both team doctors and the 2nd opinion he got back Tuesday. Mayfield, however, could return as soon as Oct. 31 vs. Steelers if the inflammation in the shoulder goes down #Browns
— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) October 20, 2021
The bad news? The Browns are down to the third running back on the team’s depth chart. Leading rusher Nick Chubb (calf) is listed as out, although there were some suggestions that he might be available for Thursday’s game. Backup Kareem Hunt (calf) is done for 4-6 weeks.
That will leave the ball-carrying duties in the hands of D’Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton.
Broncos Bucking the D
Perhaps they should be renamed the Enver Broncos because suddenly they have no D. Usually the stout portion of the Broncos gameplan, the defense has evaporated during the current three-game skid.
I’ve been saying Vic needs to give up the defensive play calling for 3 years. Said it again in training camp.The Broncos need a Head Coach that’s going to make sound in game decisions and he’s been failing at that for 3 years and the defense stinks.I don’t get it #BroncosCountry
— Brandon Stokley (@bstokley14) October 18, 2021
In the three setbacks, Denver has given up 28 points per game. During their 3-0 start, the Broncos allowed a combined total of 26 points.
The Broncos surrendered over 400 yards of offense in two of the losses. Denver is allowing 42.11% of third-down plays to be converted. That’s 19th overall in the NFL.
Injury Report
It might be easier to list who’s healthy among Cleveland’s offensive starters. Beyond Mayfield, Chubb and Hunt, wide receiver Jarvis Landry (knee) is on IR. There’s a chance he could be activated for Thursday, though.
WR Odell Beckham Jr (shoulder), left tackle Jedrick Wells Jr (ankle), right tackle Jack Conklin (knee) and center JC Tretter (knee) are all questionable.
Broncos’ OLB Von Miller on Thursday night’s matchup vs the battered Cleveland Browns to @AricDiLalla: “I don’t know who the tackle I’m going against is, but I’m going to kill him.”
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 19, 2021
Defensively, left defensive tackle Malik Jackson (knee), right defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (ankle, chest, knee) and weakside linebacker Mack Wilson (calf) are questionable.
For Denver, QB Teddy Bridgewater (foot), tight end Noah Fant (foot) and LT Garrett Bolles (knee) are questionable.
Trendspotting
Cleveland has allowed eight receiving TDs over the past two games. The Browns offense has scored 14 points or less in two of the last three games.
Denver hasn’t held a lead over the last 10 quarters. The Broncos have turned the ball over six times in their three losses. Bridgewater committed four turnovers himself in last Sunday’s loss to the Raiders.
Teddy Bridgewater : 35/49 for 334 yards, 3 TD's, 3 INT's, 1 lost fumble & a 85 QB Rating (Sacked 5 times. Hit a career-high 17 times. Season-high 4 turnovers) pic.twitter.com/fcNDA0lEcE
— Lee Harvey (@AyeThatsLee) October 18, 2021
Denver’s won 12 of 13 games from the Browns. The Broncos haven’t lost in Cleveland since 1989. Getting two points on the Broncos feels like a gift.
Denver is 5-1-1 against the spread in the past seven games against Cleveland. The Broncos are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games.
Pick: Denver Broncos +2 (-110)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
