Chargers vs Raiders Week 10 Thursday Night Football Props: All Hail Hunter Henry

• Week 10 kicks off with the Chargers versus the Raiders on Thursday Night Football (Nov. 7)
• Our TNF props were 1-2 last week for -0.6 units (+0.3 units for the season)
• Hunter Henry has been a target monster since returning from injury

A Jimmy Garoppolo ceiling game and a Christian Kirk dud sank our TNF props last week, but we’re ready to bounce back with an AFC West slug fest in Week 10. The Los Angeles Chargers make their final trip to the Oakland Coliseum and after opening as a short underdog, they’re now favored versus the Raiders.

The Chargers have won back-to-back games and it’s been Hunter Henry leading the way in the receiving game.

Prop #1: Hunter Henry More Receptions Than Darren Waller

All odds taken Nov. 6

Since returning from injury in Week 6, Henry leads all tight ends in targets, receptions and yards. He has catch totals of 7, 4, 6 and 8 over that stretch, and his lowest total came in a game where LA only ran 42 plays. Now he gets to face a Raiders team that is much worse against the pass than the run, and struggles to defend Henry’s position.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 6, Hunter Henry leads all tight ends in targets (33), receptions (25), yards (328) and air yards (351).

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 4, 2019

Oakland has surrendered at least four catches to tight ends in every game but one this season, despite only facing one elite player (Travis Kelce) at that position. Waller, meanwhile, has caught just two passes in back-to-back games after a red-hot start and is fresh off playing a season low 78% of the Raiders offensive snaps.

Pick: Henry more Receptions Than Waller (-121)

Risk: 2 units to win 1.65 units

Prop #2: Hunter Renfrow Over/Under 29.5 Receiving Yards

Hunter Renfrow is starting to earn Derek Carr’s trust and has been rewarded with 11 targets over the past two weeks. He’s converted those targets into 142 yards and two touchdowns, and gets the best matchup of any Oakland pass catcher on Thursday Night.

Hunter Renfrow’s 82.5 overall grade and 80.5 receiving grade from Week 9 are both career highs ?

Some other key numbers from Sunday’s win:

-He caught 6 of his 7 targets

-4 combined first downs/TDs

-Generated a 138.4 passer rating when targeted#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/nOHJCiZB2v

— PFF OAK Raiders (@PFF_Raiders) November 5, 2019

Renfrow operates primarily out of the slot and will draw Desmond King in coverage. A shutdown slot corner a season ago, King has struggled this season, allowing 24 receptions on 27 passes thrown his way. Advantage Renfow.

Pick: Renfrow over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-136)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.74 units

Prop #3: Tyrell Williams Over/Under 51.5 Receiving Yards

While Renfrow has a good matchup on paper the same cannot be said for his teammate Tyrell Williams. Williams will run the majority of his routes at Casey Hayward, who is one of Pro Football Focus’ top graded graded corners, and has surrendered just 211 yards to enemy receivers all season.

59.2

The passer rating that Casey Hayward has allowed when thrown his way.

NFL cornerback ranking through week 8:https://t.co/UxGU2w1SDr pic.twitter.com/gtTgUmYVWS

— PFF LA Chargers (@PFF_Chargers) October 31, 2019

Williams has been wildly inconsistent in 2019, posting two games north of 90 yards receiving, but also four games below 50 yards. He saw just four targets in Week 9 and Carr has enough history with the Chargers to know better than to try and pick on Hayward.

Pick: Williams under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-129)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.78 units