Chiefs Down to 7-Point Favorites vs Titans Despite 70% of Money Bet Being on KC
- The Kansas City Chiefs are seven-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game
- Of all money wagered, 70% of the handle and 68% of bets are backing the Chiefs
- KC opened as a 7.5-point pick to win the game – read below for a preview and prediction
The last time the Kansas City Chiefs won their way to the Super Bowl, they did so as American Football League champions.
The only time the Tennessee Titans won the AFC Championship Game, they played the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl.
In other words, it’s been awhile since these teams enjoyed success in their attempts to get to the Super Bowl.
The betting public is of the opinion that the Chiefs are about to end their drought.
Among wagers placed, 70% of the handle and 68% of the bets are supporting the Chiefs to cover and win on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Sharps aren’t as sold on KC. Just 53% of the smart money is backing the Chiefs.
Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | +271 | +7.0 (-105) | Over 52.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -335 | -7.0 (-115) | Under 52.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Jan. 18th
Kansas City is 6-1 against the spread over the past seven games.
Chiefs vs Titans: An Upsetting Playoff History
This will be the fourth time in the history of these two franchises have met in the postseason. The home team has always been favored by at least six points. The away underdog has won outright in every instance.
Marcus Mariota scored one of the most unusual touchdowns ever the last time the @Titans played the Chiefs in the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/hVk4Ks9UtJ
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 16, 2020
In the 2017 AFC Wild Card playoffs, the Titans won 22-21 at Kansas City as 8.5-point underdogs. In the 1993 AFC Divisional Round, visiting KC toppled the Houston Oilers, Tennessee’s previous locale, by a 28-20 count as seven-point underdogs.
Their first playoff meeting came in the 1962 AFL Championship Game. The host Houston Oilers fell 20-17 in overtime to the Dallas Texans, as the Chiefs were originally known. The Oilers kicked off as the six-point chalk
Head-to-Head Favors Tennessee
Kansas City lost 35-32 at Tennessee in Week 10 of the regular season. Last season, the Chiefs lost 43-40 at New England during the regular season. Playing host to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs fell 37-31 to the Patriots.
The Titans have won four straight from the Chiefs. Tennessee has also won five of the last six games played at Kansas City. The Chiefs haven’t beaten the Titans at home since 2010.
Totaling Up the Money
The total for this game opened at 51.5 points. It’s since grown to 52.5 points. That still seems like a low number, considering that KC scored 51 points on its own last week.
Will Ryan Tannehill have more TDs than Pat Mahomes on Sunday??
.@nateburleson says you can #TakeItToTheBank. pic.twitter.com/ZMKWIWGKc9
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) January 16, 2020
Sportsbooks’ handle on the total shows 68% of money is on the over, as is 67% of the wager count. Sharps like the over at a more conservative rate of 55%.
The Chiefs are just 2-5 on the total over the past seven games. On the other hand, Tennessee has gone over in nine of the last 12 games.
For the Chiefs to Win
For starters, they can’t spot Tennessee a significant lead like the 24-0 hole KC dug against the Houston Texans. The Chiefs must start on time and play with a lead.
Patrick Mahomes wins everywhere pic.twitter.com/a4jkn3SYMa
— PFF (@PFF) January 17, 2020
Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes needs to find receivers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce early for chunk plays. By building an advantage on the scoreboard, the Chiefs can take running back Derrick Henry’s ground and pound game out of the equation.
Mahomes has never turned the ball over in a postseason game, and that’s big, too. Baltimore coughed the ball up three times last week, allowing the Titans to stop Ravens drives and start with short fields.
For the Titans to Win
It’s about Henry. He’s averaging 32 carries and 188.5 yards per game during the postseason. If the Titans control the clock, they keep Mahomes off the field.
Here's a video of @Titans RB @KingHenry_2 pushing grown men around for 52 seconds. 💪💪
(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/WTnxrGVbwC
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 17, 2020
Should Henry be neutralized, or Tennessee falls behind, it may be up to QB Ryan Tannehill to win the game. That’s not a scenario that figures to end well.
The Tennessee Waltz
The Titans have taken down the NFL’s #1 scoring defense (New England) and #1 scoring offense (Baltimore) in the postseason.
If the #Titans win Sunday, they would become the 1st team in the SB era to beat all 4 division champions consecutively to clinch a Super Bowl berth.
Week 17 – Texans (AFC South)
Wild Card – Patriots (AFC East)
Divisional – Ravens (AFC North)
AFC Championship – Chiefs (AFC West)— Emily Proud (@emily_proud) January 14, 2020
If they succeed Sunday, they’ll reach the Super Bowl by winning four straight road games against the AFC’s four division winners.
Pick: Tennessee Titans +7 (-105)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
