Colts vs Chiefs Props: Mahomes is Playing Madden
- Week 5’s Sunday Night Football matchup features the Colts heading to Arrowhead for a showdown with Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs
- Back to back 0-3 weeks has me reeling at 5-7 overall and -2.68 units
- Let’s take a look at 3 interesting props for SNF Week 5
In life it’s not always about how hard you hit sometimes it’s about how hard you get back up. Back-to-back 0-3 weeks has taken a toll on my psyche as well as my bankroll. Normally a firm believer in lower risk, logical bets, being down -2.68 units after 4 weeks has me climbing uphill and Week 5 offers a few props that can help get back up that hill in a hurry.
The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs play host the 2-2 Indianapolis Colts Sunday Night for a cap to Sunday’s Week 5 NFL action. Let’s take a look at three intriguing prop bets for tonight’s game.
Prop 1: Travis Kelce Touchdown Odds
| Travis Kelce Touchdowns | Odds |
|---|---|
| 2+ | +250 |
*All odds taken October 5
Three times Travis Kelce has found paydirt on multiple occasions since Patrick Mahomes took over the Kansas City offense. Sunday night we may see his fourth game of such success.
The Indianapolis Colts once solid looking defense has continued to lose key pieces to injury. With star linebacker Darius Leonard out and both starting safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers sidelined, the Colts will have issues protecting the middle of the field.
Last week in Oakland, their first without both Leonard and Hooker, the Colts defense was non-existent against a very average offense. Now their depleted defense gets to face a very far from average offense.
Who does that leave to attempt to cover the deep middle against Travis Kelce, the NFL’s best TE? Wait for it, George Odum and Khari Willis: not exactly household names. Between the two they have one year of experience and three starts. Good luck boys!
Kelce has continued his dominance in 2019, recording over 85 yards receiving in every game, although the one score he has mustered is a little under his norm. With Mahomes slinging the ball, Kelce has scored 11 times in their 20 regular season games together.
With a banged up Colts defense offering so much inexperience up the middle look for Kelce to have a party to cap off a dirty birthday week.
Happy birthday to Travis Kelce, the sauciest tight end in the league ?? @tkelce pic.twitter.com/VCgWeabPHa
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) October 5, 2019
Pick: Kelce 2+ Touchdowns
Risk: 1 unit to win 2.5 units
Prop 2: Pat Mahomes Passing Touchdown Odds
| Pat Mahomes Passing Touchdowns | Odds |
|---|---|
| 4+ | +271 |
Okay, admittedly four passing touchdowns is a bit of a reach for just about any quarterback, but this isn’t any quarterback – it’s Patrick Mahomes. He threw 50 TDs in only his first year as a starter.
If you have been living under a rock and haven’t yet laid your eyes on the spectacle that is Pat Mahomes, I strongly urge you to take in the Sunday nighter. Mahomes is the Madden video game brought to real life. He plays at a different level then everyone else. His aggressiveness and cannon for an arm is unmatched and will test the Colts inexperienced safety tandem early and often.
Patrick Mahomes off the back foot and Demarcus Robinson with the one-handed touchdown ??@PatrickMahomes @Demarcus pic.twitter.com/uFZMrMScWX
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 22, 2019
Admittedly, Mahomes is not perfect. Just last week he threw for zero touchdowns. He did that once in the 2018 regular season as well and all he did was follow it up with three straight games of four passing TDs.
He has 60 passing touchdowns in his first 21 career starts, averaging just under three a game. Thirteen of his 21 starts he’s thrown for at least three TDs. Sunday night, he gets to attack a depleted Colts secondary, and his brilliance will remind so many other franchises just how bad their quarterback situation actually is.
Pick: Mahomes 4+ Passing Touchdowns
Risk: 1 unit to win 2.71 units
Prop 3: Either Team to Score 40+ Points Odds
| Either Team 40+ Points | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +229 |
| No | -303 |
By now it’s no secret, I’m looking for Pat Mahomes and his Madden mindset to light up this Colts secondary like the 4th of July. The Chiefs are tied for first in scoring averaging at 33.8 points a game.
The Colts are coming off a loss to the Raiders where they allowed 31 points. They give up 25.5 points per game, good for a tie for 24th in the NFL. This will be the first game missing both starting safeties and Darius Leonard. Injuries are mounting, leaving the Colts very vulnerable this week facing the most dangerous QB in the NFL.
This has the potential for a complete disaster where we may see a 50- burger posted.
The final injury report for #INDvsKC. pic.twitter.com/A396vZREOF
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 4, 2019
The Chiefs defense are certainly no world beaters themselves, and I could go on about how well Jacoby Brissett is playing but it’s the Chiefs I am expecting to hit the 40 threshold, with the Colts as added insurance in case things go very awry. It’s a nice little bonus.
To throw some numbers at it, through four weeks 40 or more points have been scored eight times.
Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs did it five times in 2018. They have yet to do it in 2019. This will be the week the leagues highest scoring team adds themselves to the 40-burger list for 2019.
Pick: Yes +229
Risk: 1 unit to win 2.29 units
Nick Ferris is a seasoned fantasy football vet of over 20 years. He's an expert in everything from best ball to daily fantasy sports. Although arm chair quarterback is as close he ever got to the field - or are we counting 7v7 touch? - he has been fortunate enough to coach some youth football.
