Despite Hot Start, Odds Are Heavily Against DeAndre Hopkins Breaking Single-Season Receiving Yards Record
- Arizona Cardinals’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is listed at +700 odds to break Calvin Johnson’s NFL record of 1,963 receiving yards in a season
- Hopkins needs to average 123.7 yards per game over his next 13 games to topple Johnson’s mark
- A Hopkins vs Johnson comparison and analysis can be found in the story below
With 356 receiving yards in his first three games this season, Arizona Cardinals’ dynamic wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has given himself a longshot hope of breaking Calvin Johnson’s eight-year-old NFL record of 1,964 yards in a season.
To break the record, Hopkins would need to average 123.7 yards per week over the next 13 weeks to topple the mark. To become the first player to record 2,000 receiving yards, Hopkins would have to average 126.4 yards.
Now in the prime of his career, Hopkins is in a position to chase that record.
Odds DeAndre Hopkins Breaks Calvin Johnson’s Receiving Yards Record
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes (1,965 Yards or More) | +700 |
| No (1,964 Yards or Less) | -1600 |
Odds as of Sept. 30
Johnson Boasted a Size Advantage Over Hopkins
Detroit Lions’ receiver Calvin Johnson was a 6-foot-5, 237-pound leaper. Quarterback Matthew Stafford often would lob a high pass in Johnson’s vicinity and Johnson would go up and he would bring down the ball like he was an NBA forward grabbing a rebound.
Hopkins is 6-foot-1, 212 pounds
In the 2012 record-setting season, Johnson totaled 100 or more yards in a game 11 times and registered more than 200 receptions yards twice.
Calvin Johnson turns 35 today:
🏈 6x Pro Bowler
🏈 3x All-ProMegatron was a human highlight reel 🎥
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/JhITGzdPta
— ESPN (@espn) September 29, 2020
He averaged 16.1 yards per catch that season. By comparison, Hopkins is averaging 13.1 yards per catch during his career.
The Lions finished 4-12 in 2012 and were often trailing in games. That meant the Lions were often passing, and Stafford was always looking for Johnson. In the final eight weeks of that season, Stafford targeted Johnson an average of 15 times per game. He gained 1,197 yards over his final eight games.
Johnson was 27 when he set the receiving yards record, while Hopkins is 28 in this first season with the Cardinals.
Johnson vs Hopkins First Three Games Comparison
| 31 | Targets | 37 |
| 24 | Receptions | 32 |
| 369 | Total Yards | 356 |
| 15.3 | Yards Per Catch | 11.1 |
| 123 | Yards Per Game | 118.6 |
| 1 | Touchdowns | 1 |
| 1 | Wins | 2 |
Hopkins Centerpiece of Cardinals’ Offensive Scheme
Over the first three weeks, Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray targeted Hopkins an average of 12.3 times per game. As the season progresses and Murray and Hopkins grow more comfortable with each other, that average should grow.
Even based on the 12.3 average, Hopkins would be targeted 197 times on the season. In Johnson’s record-setting year, he was targeted 204 times.
Hopkins was targeted 192 times when he played with Houston in 2015, but last season he was targeted only 150 times.
But the Lions liked to get Johnson down the field and throw to him, while the Cardinals tend to throw it shorter with the hope that Hopkins will turn it into a longer gain.
Hopkins is sure-handed. He has turned targets into receptions 86.4% (32 of 37) of time over the first three games.
Most receiving yards through 3 weeks:
DeAndre Hopkins – 356
Calvin Ridley – 349
DK Metcalf – 297
Stefon Diggs – 288
Alvin Kamara – 285
Robby Anderson – 278
Terry McLaurin – 269
Amari Cooper – 267
Keenan Allen – 265
Julian Edelman – 259
Tyler Lockett – 259— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) September 30, 2020
Hopkins’ Health History is a Plus
Since entering the NFL in 2013, Hopkins has only missed two games. He’s been eligible for 115 games and played 113 of them. This guy stays healthy, and that is crucial to any record chase.
This is a player who plays through minor injuries. The consistency of his production suggests he is a player who can be effective when he’s not at 100-percent. He has topped 1,100 yards receiving in five of his past six seasons.
DeAndre Hopkins games with 10+ catches:
2019: 1
2020 (3 games): 2 pic.twitter.com/MqhRSeXUK4— PFF (@PFF) September 27, 2020
This Isn’t Hopkins’ Season to Break the Record
Murray is still a young quarterback, and prone to make the kind of mistakes that younger quarterbacks make. His reads aren’t always perfect and he’s been known to force passes into strong coverage, as happened last week when he threw three interceptions against the Lions. Murray is a gifted runner, which means he doesn’t stay as long in the pocket as some quarterbacks.
While Hopkins’ numbers have been strong in the first three weeks, two of those games featured weaker opponents. Neither the Lions nor the Washington Football Team are expected to make the playoffs. The Cardinals’ next opponent is the Carolina Panthers who are 1-2 after three weeks.
Hopkins has been an elite receiver since his second NFL season in 2013, but he has never had more than 1,572 yards. Adding almost 400 yards to that total is a daunting challenge.
Kevin Allen has covered most major events, including the Olympics, Super Bowl, World Series, NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final. He covered the NHL for USA Today from 1986-2020, receiving the Lester Patrick Award in 2013 and was honored by the Hockey Hall of Fame in 2014 with the Elmer Ferguson Award.
