How Many Super Bowls Will Mahomes Win with Chiefs After Signing New Contract? Over/Under Set at 2.5
- The Kansas City Chiefs have signed Patrick Mahomes to a whopping 10-year, $477 million contract extension
- The new deal has potential to keep Mahomes in Kansas City for the next 12 seasons
- See the odds on how many Super Bowl’s Mahomes and the Chiefs could capture in that timespan
The Kansas City Chiefs have signed Patrick Mahomes to the biggest contract in professional sports history, which will keep him as a member of the franchise for the next 12 seasons.
Odds are now up on the board as to how many Super Bowls he’ll win in that 12-year window, so let’s take a look at whether he’ll win more or less than 2.5 championships in that span.
Odds on Super Bowls Won by Patrick Mahomes Over 10 Year Contract
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | -140 |
| Under 2.5 | +100 |
Odds taken July 7th
Three Super Bowls Is a Tall Order
The first thing you have to keep in mind with this prop is that last year’s Super Bowl does not factor. That means Mahomes still has to win another three Super Bowls in the upcoming 12 seasons. To put that into perspective, let’s take a look and see which other quarterbacks have been able to accomplish that.
Taking a look at the entire list of quarterbacks that have ever won the Super Bowl, only four players have won at least three times: Tom Brady (6), Terry Bradshaw (4), Joe Montana (4) and Troy Aikman (3). Mahomes would actually finish with four in total if he hits the over – becoming one of four quarterbacks ever to do so.
Aikman, Montana and Bradshaw all played in eras where it was much easier to build a dynasty. During Aikman’s run, the Dallas Cowboys could spend what they wanted and were not restrained by a salary cap.
Sure, the New England Patriots were able to build a modern-day dynasty but when you take a look at the rest of the NFL, no other team has been remotely as consistent. Taking a look at the last 10 NFC Champions, eight different teams have won it. That shows just how much change the salary cap and revenue sharing brings about.
Why Lock Your Money In For So Long?
There has always been a debate in sports betting as to just how much value futures have. Of course, they often make some sense as a part of your portfolio. There is value on the board to be found if you do your homework. However, futures are also very risky because a lot can go wrong. That’s in one season; with this prop, it’s 12.
The main thought in my head with this prop is why would you ever want to lock your money in for a 12-year bet? And even if I did, I would hope for a much better payout than +100 or -140 – regardless of which side of the bet you like.
From that perspective, regardless of what you think of this prop, it makes no sense to lock your money in for that long a period of time. You’re better off taking your bet and investing it into the S&P 500 index, which is a much safer and much more lucrative investment (nearly tripled from 2010 to 2020).
What’s the Best Bet?
Given what we know about the salary cap and how teams struggle to maintain their consistency, I’d be more inclined to bet the under. Back in 2002, Donovan McNabb signed a 12-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles when Reid was the team’s head coach and the team won zero Super Bowl titles.
Mahomes is different, in my view, and the game has changed a lot to the point where Reid’s offenses make more sense these days. They’re even the favorites for this year, according to the Super Bowl 55 odds. Nonetheless, while I lean under with this prop, there’s no way that I would lock my money in for any type of bet for 12 years.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
