Injury-Plagued 2-2 Start Results in 49ers’ 2021 Super Bowl Odds Fading to +2400; Are They Worth Betting at This Price?
- The reigning NFC champion San Francisco 49ers are off to a 2-2 start to the 2020 NFL season
- San Fran’s Super Bowl odds have lengthened to +2400
- Just three of the past 54 Super Bowl-losing teams have come back to win the game the following season
Four games into the NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers are already on their third option at quarterback. When it comes to cooking up a Super Bowl-winning recipe, that’s not listed among the ingredients.
Yet that’s only one of a myriad of problems facing the defending NFC champion 49ers.
History, fate and reality all appear to be conspiring against the 49ers. Ravaged by injury, the Niners are off to a 2-2 start to the season.
Situated in the rugged NFC West, that’s already causing alarm bells to sound. San Francisco’s average betting line has lengthened to +2400 in the Super Bowl odds. FanDuel lists them at +2100.
Super Bowl 55 Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +400 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +550 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +800 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1300 |
| New Orleans Saints | +1300 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1400 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +1500 |
| Buffalo Bills | +1700 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +2100 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2200 |
Odds as of Oct. 5th at FanDuel
When the 2021 Super Bowl future book opened, the Niners were the NFC favorites with a betting line of +850.
Total Turnaround
A year ago, the 49ers were destiny’s darlings. They raced to an 8-0 start, finishing 13-3. That was more wins than the Niners had claimed during the 2016, 2017 and 2018 seasons combined.
This year’s been the complete opposite. San Francisco lost its season opener to the Arizona Cardinals. Beginning with Week 2 against the New York Jets, the injury bug ravaged the team.
In Sunday’s 25-20 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Niners played minus 19 players who were either out or on injured reserve.
Injuries or not, @arikarmstead isn't making excuses. pic.twitter.com/7OX83hg0zI
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) October 5, 2020
These included starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, NFL defensive rookie of the year Nick Bosa, All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman as well as Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, the top two running backs on the club’s depth chart.
Bosa is done for the season. Garoppolo (high ankle sprain) hasn’t even resumed practicing. Speculation is he’s out 4-6 weeks.
Coleman is on IR. Sherman could be activated this week and Mostert might be ready for San Francisco’s Oct. 18 game with the Los Angeles Rams.
Jimmy G Is Missed
Among that list, the Niners are missing the key player for their offense (Garoppolo) and their defense (Bosa). Garoppolo’s value to the team is easily measured in numbers.
Under Kyle Shanahan as head coach, the Niners are 22-5 in games that Garoppolo has started and completed. The team is 5-22 in games that someone else has been under center for the 49ers.
We're done with the "is Nick Mullens better than Jimmy Garoppolo?" conversation, right?
— Marcas Grant (@MarcasG) October 5, 2020
In Sunday’s loss to Philly, third stringer CJ Beathard replaced an ineffective Nick Mullens under center.
Garoppolo isn’t on a level with Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson but he’s an efficient QB. He doesn’t cost his team games.
History Conspiring Against 49ers
The only NFC team to lose the Super Bowl and return to win the following season was the 1971 Dallas Cowboys. The other teams to achieve this rare feat were AFC clubs – the 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2018 New England Patriots.
The Niners don’t need to look far for evidence of this fact of life. The Rams, their division rivals, went from NFC champs in 2018 to 9-7 and out of the postseason in 2019.
#49ers pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah, declared out with an arm injury, is feared to have suffered a biceps tear, source said. He’ll have an MRI to confirm, but potentially another major injury to an SF defender on the edge.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 5, 2020
History also shows that teams making dramatic turnarounds tend to slide back down the ladder more often than not the following season. Chicago, Houston and Indianapolis all went from double-digit losses in 2017 to double-digits wins and postseason appearances in 2018. Only the Texans were playoff participants last season.
In 2019, the 49ers and Buffalo Bills went from double-digit losses to double-digits wins. The Bills look to still be ascending, while the Niners are at best treading water.
A soft start that’s including three games against teams with losing records in 2019 and a trio facing week NFC East squads has helped keep the 49ers afloat.
“Losing sucks when you have high goals. We want to get back to the Super Bowl.” George Kittle #49ers
— Tracy Sandler (@TracyFGSN) October 5, 2020
They get another easy touch this Sunday against Miami but then the terrain grows rugged. In a seven-week stretch San Francisco faces the Rams, at New England, at Seattle, Green Bay, at New Orleans, at the Rams and Buffalo.
Forget about the Super Bowl, Making the playoffs could prove a tall order for San Francisco.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
