Josh Allen Interceptions vs Josh Allen Sacks (+9.5): Odds on Which Will be Greater
- Two prominent Josh Allens will star in the 2019 NFL season, one at QB for Buffalo, the other at edge rusher for Jacksonville
- The Bills’ QB threw 12 interceptions in his rookie season in 2018, while the Jags’ DE was the 7th-overall pick this April
- Which Josh Allen will be the best Josh Allen in 2019?
It’s an all-out Josh Allen competition in this prop as competitive lines posted on two young, budding stars in the NFL: one is the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills, who is fresh off an encouraging-but-trying rookie season. The second is a sack artist joining the vaunted Jacksonville Jaguars defense.
Which player is the best bet on this head-to-head prop?
Josh Allen (Buffalo QB) vs Josh Allen (Jacksonville DE) Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen (QB) – Interceptions | -9.5 -115 |
| Josh Allen (DE) – Sacks | +9.5 -125 |
*Odds taken 05/01/19
Josh Allen’s Interceptions
Allen had a challenging rookie season with the Bills that resulted in just five wins and seven losses. What we’re focusing on here is his passing and whether or not he’ll be able to curtail the turnovers. Allen had 12 picks in his 12 games last season, which is concerning because he only had 10 touchdowns.
The Bills spent the offseason retooling all of the parts around him, though, so he shouldn’t be hung out to dry like he was last season. His top receiver was Zay Jones, who had a measly 652 yards, while no other receiver caught more than 27 passes. The Bills brought in Cole Beasley, John Brown and Tyler Kroft to surround him with better weapons.
Q: Will the Buffalo Bills win over/under 6.5 games this year?@AdamSchein: Oh, way over. If it was 8.5, I’d take the over. Hey Vegas, a little respect here for my Buffalo Bills. I believe at the end of the day, Josh Allen is going to have a monster second season. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/m4onXvgJty
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) April 30, 2019
Allen was also sacked 28 times in 12 games, so it was clear that the Bills needed to do a better job of protecting him. They signed the top center in free agency, Mitch Morse, and also spent a second-round pick on OT Cody Ford.
Jaguars Draft Josh Allen
Few people expected Josh Allen to be around when the Jags were drafting at No. 7 in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he fell to them. As a result, they’ve now added a very nice piece to a defense that was already elite. Allen was a star for Kentucky, winning the Chuck Bednarik Award, the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, and was named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year last season.
Allen was an absolute monster, recording 17 sacks with five forced fumbles. The question is, how many sacks can he pick up in 2019?
Jacksonville grabs Josh Allen at No. 7 ? pic.twitter.com/wIQ1lDSfVH
— ESPN (@espn) April 26, 2019
Rookies tend to do well at this position – especially high-drafted ones. Myles Garrett had seven sacks in his rookie season while Von Miller had 11.5. Bradley Chubb, who was the top defensive end in the 2018 NFL Draft, finished with 12 sacks last season.
Allen has landed in a fairly good situation. With Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell there already, Allen won’t be thrown into the fire. And with a stellar defense at all of the other levels, Allen should have plenty of opportunities to get after the quarterback.
Sacks Versus Interceptions
This prop tends to favor the Jaguars’ Josh Allen simply because quarterbacks don’t often throw enough picks to make it worth laying the -9.5. Taking a look at last year’s numbers, Ben Roethlisberger led the league with 16 interceptions. Allen would have tied him had he played the full season, but that was his rookie year without much help.
#MelKiper believes in #JoshAllen #GoBills ? pic.twitter.com/QTurw3M7ml
— Brian Jennings (@buffalobadboy12) April 29, 2019
The reality is that most quarterbacks were in the 10-14 range but let’s just assume Allen will push for 16 picks this year. If he hits 16, Allen of the Jaguars can cover the spread if he gets at least seven sacks. That’s quite doable given what other rookies have done. Now if the Bills’ passer throws fewer than 16 picks, the Jags defensive end only needs to get maybe five or six sacks to cover.
This spread is too high. Take the Jaguars rookie +9.5 to cover here.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
