Justin Herbert Overtakes Joe Burrow as the Favorite in 2020 NFL OROY Odds After Week 5
- Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is now the +125 favorite to win the NFL OROY
- He’s overtaken Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, who’s at +260
- See updated NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and analysis below
The naysayers who scoffed when the Los Angeles Chargers selected Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert with the sixth overall selection of the 2020 NFL Draft have gone silent.
Herbert was taken five notches below first overall choice, Joe Burrow, on draft day but today, it’s Herbert who is #1. Well, at least in terms of the odds to win the NFL OROY he’s moved to the front of the pack.
Following an outstanding performance on Monday Night Football, Herbert is now the +125 chalk in the NFL OROY odds. He moved past Cincinnati Bengals QB Burrow, whose betting line slipped to +260.
2020 NFL OROY Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Justin Herbert (Chargers) | +125 |
| Joe Burrow (Bengals) | +260 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) | +700 |
| CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) | +1500 |
| James Robinson (Jaguars) | +1500 |
| Jonathan Taylor (Colts) | +1500 |
| Justin Jefferson (Vikings) | +1500 |
Odds as of Oct. 13th
Just two of the last seven NFL OROY were QBs.
Herbert’s Monday Magic Show
Declared the official starting QB for the Chargers by coach Anthony Lynn – he’d previously be given the job following an injury to Tyrod Taylor – Herbert stepped up and showed everyone that he deserved the role.
Facing the Saints, one of the NFC favorites to go to the Super Bowl, Herbert lit it up. He posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating in a clean pocket during the game.
the rookie Justin Herbert LEADS THE NFL when pressured in adjusted completion rate and efficiency
better than Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers etc
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 13, 2020
At 22 years and 216 days old, Herbert became the youngest QB with four passing TDs in Monday Night Football history. The other three QBs 23 and younger to pass for four TDs in a MNF game? Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Dan Marino. Herbert is the only rookie to throw four TD passes on MNF.
Through his first four NFL games, Herbert has passed for nine TDs against three interceptions. He’s accounted for 1,195 yards through the air while posting a 107.1 QB rating and 68.8 completion percentage.
Prime Time Glitter?
Herbert opened at +1400 in the NFL OROY future book and drifted steadily. By Sept. 15, he’d peak at +2900.
The last two weeks, his odds have shortened in quantum leap fashion. He was at +1000 when he took the field for Monday’s game.
Is this sudden surge to the top of the NFL OROY betting line nothing more than the fact that Herbert put on a passing clinic in prime time? Well, it’s happened before this season.
Justin Herbert answers with this 64-yard beauty 😆
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/DurqnS2AUb
— ESPN (@espn) October 13, 2020
In Week 1, Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown in KC’s 34-20 win over the Houston Texans. He moved into the favorite’s role ahead of Burrow in NFL OROY odds at +175.
Edwards-Helaire hasn’t duplicated that performance since. He’s now the third betting choice at a distant +700.
Then again, in successive weeks Herbert’s gone toe-to-toe with the QB who’s passed for more yardage and TD passes than any NFLer (Drew Brees) and the QB who’s won the most Super Bowls (Tom Brady). Yes, his team lost both games. But he also threw for seven TDs the past two weeks.
Burrow In A Hole?
While Herbert was slicing and dicing the Saints, the Baltimore Ravens were welcoming Burrow to his nightmare. He was limited to 19-of-30 for 183 yards, one interception, and one lost fumble as the Bengals were dumped 27-3.
"Y’all ain’t hitting me no more.”
Joe Burrow learned his lesson after that Eagles hit 😅
(via @NFLFilms) pic.twitter.com/STEw2kDsN1
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 7, 2020
However, the week prior, he posted his first NFL win. Burrow became the first rookie to throw for 300 or more yards in three straight games. In other words, don’t count him out yet.
Joe Burrow vs Justin Herbert
| 1-3-1 | W-L | 0-4 |
| 6-3 | TD/INT | 9-3 |
| 260.8 | Passing Yardage Per Game | 298.8 |
| 86.3 | Passer Rating | 107.1 |
| 43.1 | QBR | 71.6 |
| 6.3 | Average Yards Per Attempt | 8.5 |
| 65.2 | Completion Percentage | 68.8 |
Herbert is silencing doubters who suggested he was soft and immature. He’s displaying a powerful arm and the ability to complete any type of pass. His presence is providing an entirely new look to the Chargers offense.
Justin Herbert looks like an absolute star in the making as a franchise QB. He’s another example of why imagination is an important part of the evaluation process. Several evaluators couldn’t see Herbert’s potential due to how he played in Oregon’s offense. Traits > production
— Bucky Brooks (@BuckyBrooks) October 13, 2020
In the NFL OROY, though, often to the steady goes the race. Herbert has faced just one top-10 defense (Tampa Bay) and one top-10 pass defense (Carolina). And at some point, he’s got to win a game if he wants to be NFL OROY.
Herbert’s been impressive but this is still Burrow’s race to lose.
Pick: Joe Burrow (Bengals) (+260)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
