Kirk Cousins Listed as a Top 7 NFL MVP Contender, Given +1600 Odds

• After Week 5, Cousins’ odds were a distant +15000
• In three-straight wins, Cousins has over 300 yards per game and 10 touchdowns
• The Vikings have a 5-2 record and sit in a playoff spot after Week 7

After an up-and-down start, the Minnesota Vikings are riding a three-game win streak. Based on how their season began, it might make sense to think running back Dalvin Cook deserves most of the credit, but instead, it’s been the efficient and effective work of quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Entering Week 8, Cousins has his shortest NFL MVP odds of the season.

NFL MVP Odds

*Odds taken 10/22/19. 

This is the first time this season Cousins has had odds shorter than +3800. Is he still a bargain, or are there better choices out there?

Cousins’ Recent Rampage

There’s a reason Cousins was a longshot +15000 MVP candidate as recently as a few weeks ago: he started the season very poorly, throwing just three touchdowns in his first four games while averaging fewer than 200 yards per game.

Kirk Cousins is playing the best football of his career pic.twitter.com/kdV38Z6uft

— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) October 21, 2019

He’s had a total turnaround since, with 10 touchdowns and more than 300 yards per game in his past three outings.

Mike Zimmer said Adam Thielen is "improving fast," adding, "He's got a chance' to play Thursday night. Vikings will see where Thielen's at tomorrow, Zimmer said.

— Ben Goessling (@BenGoessling) October 22, 2019

He’s finally clicking with his two stud wide receivers, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Of course, Thielen injured his hamstring on Sunday and may not play Thursday against the Redskins. The understanding is that it’s a short-term injury though, so it shouldn’t impact Cousins’ statistical potential too much.

Adam Thielen said his hamstring has gotten quite a bit better since Sunday, and added he's hopeful he'll be able to go Thursday.

— Ben Goessling (@BenGoessling) October 22, 2019

MVP Is a Quarterback’s Award

Looking back at recent NFL history, only one non-quarterback has won MVP since 2007 (Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, 2012). The award caters to quarterbacks because, as signal callers and leaders of the offense, they have more influence on the game than any other individual player.

The only non-quarterback with a shot this year is Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, who might pull it off if he’s somehow able to break Chris Johnson’s single-season scrimmage yards record.

Is Christian McCaffrey the MVP frontrunner?

🏈 1st in rushing yards
🏈 T-2 in rushing touchdowns
🏈 923 total yards
🏈 Panthers: 4-2 pic.twitter.com/Uc22sf2kGQ

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 15, 2019

Losers Don’t Win MVP

This is the simplest fact of all: players on non-playoff teams don’t win MVP. It simply does not happen.

So if you think the Vikings (5-2), currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC, aren’t going to make the playoffs, don’t put your money behind Cousins for the MVP award.

#Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

* Leads NFL in yards per pass attempt (9.1)
* Leads NFL in passer rating (114.3)
* Ranks 5th in TD passes (13)
* Ranks 4th in completion rate (69.8%)
* Has completed passes at 7% above expectation, 3rd best in NFL (Next Gen Stats)

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) October 21, 2019

Of the Vikings’ nine remaining games, five are against top-12 teams (Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks and Bears), according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) rankings by Football Outsiders. It’s quite possible that the final two weeks of the season, against the Packers and Bears respectively, decide everything for Cousins and the Vikings.

Decision Time

Without the benefit of a crystal ball, it was impossible to foresee Cousins’ gigantic odds leap from +15000 to +1600. So no, with him playing his best football of the season right now, he’s not quite the bargain he once was.

The competition is crowded with quarterbacks and Cousins’ slow start might be enough to keep him off the pace. An interesting pick is Lamar Jackson (+900), whose dual-threat game has helped the Ravens to a 5-2 record.

"Lamar Jackson is neck-and-neck with Ezekiel Elliott for rushing yards, and neck-and-neck with Tom Brady in passing yards. When you have a player doing those 2 things, it presents so many problems for the defense." — @getnickwright pic.twitter.com/1n2N2D6ew7

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) October 21, 2019

After beating the Seahawks on the road, Jackson will go head-to-head with the unbeaten Patriots on Sunday Night Football this week — on a stage that could really boost his MVP campaign.