Packers Still Listed as 4.5-Point Favorites Despite 64% of Bets Being on Seahawks – Odds & Picks

• The Seattle Seahawks-Green Bay Packers line’ opened at -3.5 but is currently up to -4.5
• 64% of the wager count and 52% of the sharp money is on the Seahawks
• 71% of the sharp money is on the “Over” in this game, according to sportsbooks

The Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers will clash in the final game of the Divisional Round. It’s an intriguing showdown because while we’re looking at a No. 5 seed visiting the No. 2 seed, the Seahawks weren’t too far off clinching the No. 1 seed in the conference and finishing ahead of Green Bay. The Packers are laying a short number here but what’s the best bet in this contest?

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers Handle & Odds

Odds taken Jan. 10

Run Defenses Will Be The Key

The key to Sunday’s game will be the run defenses on both sides. We know that the Seahawks like to run the ball as they compiled the third-most rushing attempts in the NFL this season. As for the Packers, their passing game was quite shaky at times and they play much better when they can run.

Aaron Jones averaged 4.9 yards-per-carry and had 18 total touchdowns in the team’s 13 wins. He averaged 2.6 yards-per-carry and notched just one touchdown in the team’s three losses. The question is which run defense will do the better job on Sunday?

Jones will be going up against a Seahawks defense that ranked 22nd in the NFL in run defense but coughed up an ugly 4.9 yards-per-carry. Only three teams had a worse number in that regard. They also allowed 22 rushing touchdowns, which was the third-most in the NFL.

As for the Packers, their run defense was gashed many times. They gave up 4.7 yards-per-carry and was 23rd in run defense. They were OK during the season-ending five-game winning streak, allowing 108 per game, but they were allowing 125.5 per game before that. Giving up 171 on the ground to the hapless Detroit Lions in Week 17 in a concern.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eb7jheJlsLQ

Both teams are going to try to run the ball here – especially with the temperature on Sunday expected to be around 22 degrees Fahrenheit (-6 celsius) along with snow. Running games are likely to decide Sunday’s story.

What’s With Aaron Rodgers?

There was a time this season when Aaron Rodgers was in the MVP conversation. However, that proved to be fleeting as the Packers offense – and the passing game, specifically – were quite inconsistent throughout the year.

Rodgers notched 323 passing yards in a near-loss to the Lions in Week 17 but take a look at his passing yardage numbers in the games prior to that: 216, 203, 195, 243, 104, 233 and 161. Those look like Marcus Mariota-type passing numbers and not Rodgers, who is supposedly elite.

While the blame isn’t solely on Rodgers – he doesn’t have very many reliable receiving weapons – but it’s hard to hide from a 50.4 QBR. The good news is he’s at home on Sunday where he tossed 14 touchdowns, threw just two picks and had a 101.6 passer rating this season. That should give him a big boost.

What’s the Best Bet?

The Seahawks always seem to play close games, so taking them on the spread probably makes sense. However, I see the Packers as the team that advances at the end of the day. The Seahawks defense just isn’t very good, giving up 4.9 yards-per-carry on the ground and ranking 27th against the pass. This sets up well for a big game for Aaron Jones.

If the Seahawks offensive line was in better shape (left tackle Duane Brown is questionable) and they didn’t lose their entire backfield in December (Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and CJ Prosise are all out for the year), I’d look for them to win. Absent of that, I see the Packers winning and cover the short-ish number here.