Packers vs Chiefs Betting Odds, Lines, Picks, and Predictions
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 7.5-point home favorites over the Green Bay Packers in Week 9 (Sunday, November 7th, 4:25 pm ET)
- Aaron Rodgers is out after testing positive for COVID, paving the way for Jordan Love to make his first NFL start
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
For at least one week, the Green Bay Packers will be quarterbacked by someone other than Aaron Rodgers. The reigning MVP tested positive for COVID earlier this week, and will miss Sunday’s game on the road in Kansas City.
The matchup versus the Chiefs was supposed to be a showdown between Rodgers and the 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes, but instead Green Bay’s 2020 first round pick Jordan Love will make his first career start.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with Fox providing the broadcast coverage, and sunny, 68 degree temperatures in the forecast.
Packers vs Chiefs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | +250 | +7.5 (-115) | O 48.5 (-110) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -320 | -7.5 (-105) | U 48.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Nov. 5th at FanDuel.
Kansas City opened as a 1.5-point favorite before the Rodgers news, with the line trending in Green Bay’s direction. Once Rodgers was ruled out the line was moved sharply in KC’s favor, as the Chiefs are now 7.5-point favorites. The game’s total also shifted dramatically, falling from 55.5 to 45.5.
Per our NFL public betting trends 74% of the spread tickets and 53% of the handle are currently backing the Packers.
Love Looks to Expose Chiefs D
Green Bay did get some good news this week, as starting receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard both cleared COVID protocols after missing last week’s win in Arizona.
Adams, the highest graded wideout this season per Pro Football Focus, has a cupcake matchup versus KC’s 30th ranked pass defense (per DVOA), and should be able to run circles around the Chiefs secondary. His presence should open up plenty of easy completions for Love, who’ll also lean heavily on his running backs.
Adams said Jordan Love has really started to look like the first-round pick that he is. Said he has been impressed with him in practice and is looking forward to seeing how he does Sunday.
— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) November 5, 2021
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 188 total yards in last week’s win over the Cardinals, and will look to run all over a shaky KC run defense. The Chiefs are the lowest graded run defense in the NFL per PFF, and have also allowed the fifth most receiving yards to enemy RB’s.
Matt LaFleur seems remarkably chipper given the news of the day. Guess he's watched the Chiefs defense tape
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) November 3, 2021
Love performed adequately in the preseason, completing 69% of his passes to second and third stringers, and couldn’t have asked for a better matchup in his regular season debut. In addition to their putrid run and pass defense grades, KC also ranks 31st in pass rush productivity.
KC Needs to Eliminate Turnovers
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs disappointing offensive production has to be one of the biggest surprises of the season. KC has failed to clear 20 points in three of its past four outings, and has been plagued by turnovers.
Mahomes’ 10th interception of the year 😅 (via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/vko1JajSx5
— Overtime (@overtime) November 2, 2021
Patrick Mahomes has thrown 10 interceptions, including at least one in seven straight outings. The Chiefs lead the NFL in giveaways with 19, two more than any other team.
Teams have clamped down on KC’s deep passing game all season, and last week was the latest example. The Chiefs averaged only 4.8 yards per play versus the New York Giants, and 15 of Mahomes’ 29 completions came at, or behind the line of scrimmage.
The #Chiefs with turnover issues.
The #Packers defense: pic.twitter.com/IuRHxBNZyB
— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) November 2, 2021
After a slow start, Green Bay’s defense has turned things around recently, holding five straight opponents to 22 points or less. The Packers have also been feasting on turnovers, racking up 10 over their last five outings, including three last week against the Cards.
Packers vs Chiefs Pick
It’s hard to argue that any quarterback’s absence affects the point spread as much as Rodgers’ does. In this case however, oddsmakers have gone too far. Green Bay’s key skill position players are back, and they’re simply a better team than the Chiefs at the moment.
The Packers rate out higher by DVOA, and have been red-hot since dropping their season opener. Green Bay has won seven straight both straight up and against the spread. Matt LaFleur, the fastest coach to 40 wins in NFL history, also has a fantastic track record as a road underdog. He’s 7-3 against the spread as a road ‘dog, with seven outright wins.
#Chiefs are now 3-12 ATS in their last 15 regular season games as a favorite dating back to last year.
— Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon) November 2, 2021
KC on the other hand, is 2-6 against the spread in 2021, and has covered just three times in its past 15 regular season games.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +7.5 (-115)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
