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Spread in Patriots vs Ravens Week 9 Matchup Opens at New England -3.5

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 8:12 AM PDT

The Ravens on the field against Washington.
The Baltimore Ravens are 3.5-point underdogs to the New England Patriots in Week 9. Photo by Keith Allison (Wikimedia) [CC License].
  • The New England Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites at Baltimore next week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens are 8-3 ATS off a bye in the John Harbaugh era.
  • The Ravens 26th-ranked pass defense could lead to their demise against the Pats.

The New England Patriots took care of business once again, easily turning aside the Cleveland Browns on Sunday by a final score of 27-13. They’ve now opened up as a 3.5-point favorite in Baltimore next week. Are the Patriots a good bet to stay undefeated and cover, or will the Ravens be able to cover the spread?

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
New England Patriots -3.5 (-107) -183 Over 45.0 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 (-113) +163 Under 45.0 (-110)

*Odds taken October 27th.

Patriots Easily Turn Aside Browns

The Patriots have not only had an easy schedule this season, the opponents they’ve faced have had a terrible habit of embarrassing themselves against them. The Browns were simply the next in line as they coughed up the ball on three straight snaps in the first quarter on Sunday, which essentially ended the game before it started.

The Patriots capitalized – with one fumble directly leading to a touchdown – and found themselves up 17-0 after the first quarter. Cleveland never got back into the game as they trailed from wire-to-wire.

What’s interesting to note is for the first time this season, the Patriots defense was gashed on the ground. They gave up 131 rushing yards to Nick Chubb as the Browns finished with 159 rushing yards and a 7.2 yards-per-carry average. That’s important to note as the Pats next opponent runs the ball very well.

Ravens Rested With A Bye Week

The Baltimore Ravens were one of the teams that were off this week, which means they’ll be fresh and rested for their showdown with the Pats next week. That’s important to note as the Ravens have been one of the best teams off a bye in the John Harbaugh era, covering the spread in eight of 11 games.

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Last we saw Baltimore, they were on the road in Seattle, smoking the Seahawks. Their rush offense has really come to life during the team’s current three-game winning streak. They’re averaging 202 rushing yards per game over that span. The Patriots have the league’s second-ranked run defense, so this will be a key matchup on Sunday.

How Will The Line Move?

We know that New England hasn’t really played anyone this season but I’m not expecting the Ravens to be the first team to beat them. Baltimore has been challenged passing the ball and while they’ll be able to run with success – especially with Lamar Jackson – I don’t think they can win solely using that weapon.

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The other factor here is the Ravens defense is a cut below what it’s been in recent years. They’re 26th in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed and that won’t work very well with the Patriots.

I am expecting some line movement in the Patriots vs Ravens odds as we’ll probably see money on New England. We’ve already seen the line creep up to -4.5 at sportsbooks as it doesn’t seem many people think the Ravens are for real. They have the win over the Seahawks but their other four wins have come against teams that are a combined 7-19-1.

 

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