NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 17 – SBD Formula is 43-30-2 This Season

• Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, January 2nd
• The SBD Formula is a red-hot 43-30-2 against the spread through 16 weeks
• Read below for analysis on the Week 17 NFL slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

It was bound to happen at some point, and finally the SBD Formula had a losing slate in Week 17 with its best bets against the spread. The SBD Formula went 1-4 with its top selections last week, dropping its record to 43-30-2 for the season. That’s still a 59% success rate for those keeping track at home, which is nothing to scoff at.

Despite the SBD Formula’s off week, we still nailed two of our three best bets against the spread in this column in Week 17 by trusting the projections, running our record to 9-3 over the past month. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling in Week 17.

Week 17 Against the Spread Picks

Odds as of Dec. 30th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Our betting card starts in Gotham City, where Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are poised for yet another lopsided victory, this time versus the Jets.

Buccaneers vs Jets Pick Against the Spread

The Buccaneers are currently 13-point favorites, a number the SBD Formula doesn’t think is nearly high enough. Tampa Bay has been a school yard bully all season versus bottom-tier teams, beating up on all five opponents they’ve faced who have six wins or less.

My @SBD formula goes just 1-4 on its top ATS picks this week

Now 43-30-2 on its top ATS picks https://t.co/vkPk9tehrJ

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) December 28, 2021

They’re 5-0 against the spread versus those squads, with an average score margin of +23.4. They feature the number one offense per DVOA and should absolutely feast on New York’s 32nd ranked pass defense.

Another reason to like the Bucs in this spot, is the fact that they don’t take their foot off the gas. They pass at the league’s highest rate (66.8%), regardless of game script. Tom Brady is still gunning for the MVP award, and a cupcake matchup versus the Jets is a great way for him to pad his stats.

Tom Brady leads the NFL in all of the following statistical categories:

passing yards (4,580)
completions (422)
pass attempts (632)
passing TD (37)

Yes, he also leads the league in age (44 years old).@Buccaneers | @TomBrady pic.twitter.com/KHQZp9uBDo

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 28, 2021

On the other side of the ball, no one runs successfully on Tampa Bay meaning New York will have to lean heavily on Zach Wilson’s arm. The rookie has failed to break 170 passing yards in back-to-back starts, while the Jets grade out as the sixth worst passing offense in the NFL.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13, 1 unit

Rams vs Ravens Pick Against the Spread

Next up, let’s target Baltimore as a 4.5-point home underdog versus the LA Rams. The SBD Formula has the Ravens pulling off the outright upset, and it will likely be up to Tyler Huntley to lead the charge. That’s because Lamar Jackson was absent in practice on Thursday, after hobbling around on the field on Wednesday.

More help: The #Ravens have activated QB Tyler Huntley, DT Justin Madubuike and S Tony Jefferson from the COVID-19 reserve list.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 30, 2021

Jackson has missed the last two games, and while Huntley was also out last week versus Cincinnati, he was excellent the week before against Green Bay. He helped the Ravens easily cover versus the NFC’s top seed, throwing for two touchdowns, and running for two more.

Jackson aside, Baltimore should be much healthier for this game, especially in the secondary, as they’re getting back a bevy of players who missed time last week due to injury or COVID. They are exceptional versus the run (6th per DVOA), and will likely force LA to be one-dimensional on offense.

"Matthew Stafford is a great talent BUT you gotta take care of the ball at this point in the season" ~@DariusJButler#PatMcAfeeShowLIVE pic.twitter.com/UuWiIBBfOF

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) December 27, 2021

That’s where things can south in a hurry for the Rams with Matthew Stafford under center. LA has lost four of its past five games versus teams with a winning record, while Stafford is 31-49-2 against the spread all-time versus above .500 competition.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +4.5, 1 unit

Dolphins vs Titans Pick Against the Spread

Last but not least, we have Miami catching 3.5-points in Tennessee. It’s quite possible that neither one of these teams is anywhere close to as good as their respective records indicate, but this number is too good to pass up given the Dolphins’ current seven-game winning streak. The SBD Formula agrees, and rates this game closer to a pick’em.

Should we be talking more about the @MiamiDolphins? @BMarshall thinks so 🐬 #FinsUp #InsideTheNFL @Tua pic.twitter.com/5y7TLSaJvh

— Inside the NFL (@insidetheNFL) December 30, 2021

Miami has held six of their past seven opponents to 17 points or less, and each of their past seven wins have come by at least 7 points.

The Titans on the other hand have dropped three of their past five overall, with their two wins over that stretch coming by three or fewer points. Tennessee has scored 23 or fewer points in all but one game since Derrick Henry went down, and without him the Titans just don’t boast an offense capable of separating from many teams.

Pick: Miami Dolphins (+3.5), 1 unit