Public Betting Patriots, But Sharp Money on Bills in Week 4 – Picks & Odds
- The 3-0 Buffalo Bills play host to the 3-0 New England Patriots on Sunday
- Sportsbooks report that 88 percent of money and 85 percent of bets they’ve handled are backing the Patriots
- We preview the betting odds and offer our best wager option
The betting public is in love with the 3-0 New England Patriots this week. Sportsbooks report that of all the bets they’ve handled on Sunday’s game between the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots and their AFC East rivals, the 3-0 Buffalo Bills, the vast majority is backing New England.
New England are seven-point favorites in the Patriots vs Bills odds & stats.
Of the bets laid on his game, 88% of them are supporting the Pats. And 85% of all money wagered on the game was also placed on a favorable outcome for New England.
However, the smart money is of a completely different mind as sharps are going big-time on the Bills. Buffalo is drawing 73.5% of action from this group.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -320 | -7 (-101) | Over 42.0 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | +260 | +7 (-119) | Under 42.0 (-110) |
*Odds taken 09/28/19.
New England has won five straight from Buffalo and 13 of the last 15 meetings between the two teams.
Patriots have Buffalo’s Number
The public obsession with New England is entirely understandable. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 30-2 against Buffalo is his career, and has not lost to the Bills since 2011.
Fun ? Fact Friday: Tom Brady has more Super Bowl MVP wins (4) than losses to the Bills (3) #Patriots pic.twitter.com/5H5Wgf4JzT
— The Camera Guys (@NBCSCameraGuys) September 27, 2019
In fact, since 2001, Brady has won more games in Buffalo (15) than any Bills quarterback. Tyrod Taylor and Drew Bledsoe each won 14 times at Buffalo’s helm over the same span of time.
Since 2001, Tom Brady has won more games in Buffalo (15) than any Bills QB
The Patriots do have some cause for concern, however. The list of New England players who are questionable for this game is lengthy and includes some key personnel – linebacker Dont’a Hightower (shoulder) running back Rex Burkhead (foot) defensive end Michael Bennett (shoulder) tackle Marshall Newhouse (illness), and tight end Matt LaCosse (ankle).
Wide receiver Julian Edelman (chest) was upgraded from questionable to probable on Friday.
Backing the Bills
The Bills have certainly displayed some resiliency. They battled back from a 16-0 deficit to beat the New York Jets 17-16 in their season opener. Last week, they blew a 14-point lead against the Cincinnati Bengals but rallied for a 21-17 victory.
A strong pass rush, an athletic QB & a lot of variety on offense.
BB previews the Bills on the Belestrator. pic.twitter.com/OpeguB5h2g
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 28, 2019
The Bills are 3-0 for the first time since 2011, which was also the last time they beat the Patriots at home. Buffalo took a 34-31 verdict over New England in Week 3 that season.
So you want to irrationally convince yourself the Bills are gonna win on Sunday? Here's how you do it.
1) NE hasn't scored more than 25 points in Buffalo vs a Sean McDermott defense
2) In his 2 games vs McDermott in BUF, Brady has 0 TDs and 1INT
— YardsPerPass (@YardsPerPass) September 27, 2019
New England has won 15 of the last 16 games at Buffalo. But things haven’t been as easy since Sean McDermott took over as head coach of the Bills. When facing McDermott, Brady has thrown for three touchdowns, four interceptions and a passer rating of 82.5. The Patriots have scored more than 25 points once in four games.
Public vs Sharps
The Bills are 3-0 against teams that are a collective 1-8 this season. The Patriots are 3-0 against teams that are a collective 0-9 this season.
Tom Brady discussing how enjoyable it is to look up at the end of games & see only Patriots fans left in Buffalo… Ouch. #Bills pic.twitter.com/Jw3aiBGq87
— Bradley Gelber (@BradleyGelber) September 26, 2019
New England beat the Jets by 16. Buffalo won by a point.
The New England defense hasn’t allowed a TD since the AFC Championship Game. The Buffalo defense hasn’t allowed less than 400 yards of total offense in the past 15 games, the longest such streak in the NFL.
.@AdamSchein is picking the Bills to beat the Patriots this Sunday:
"Buffalo matches up really well with the Patriots. Josh Allen is a stud…I will jump through a table when the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots."#BillsMafia | #T2S pic.twitter.com/B8xY9YZIig
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 25, 2019
The Bills are 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games against the Patriots. New England is 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 games at Buffalo.
But the Pats haven’t seen a dual-threat QB like Buffalo’s Josh Allen this season.
Listen to the sharps. Take the Bills and the points.
Pick: Buffalo Bills [+7 (-119)].
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
