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Texans vs Chiefs Divisional Round Bet Count and Money Breakdown – 61% of Bets on KC as 9.5-Point Favorites

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NFL Football

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 1:54 PM PDT

Patrick Mahomes
Sports bettors are sticking with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs as they get set to host the Houston Texans on Sunday in AFC Divisional Playoff action. Photo by Jordan Kelly/Icon Sportswire.
  • Kansas City Chiefs have steadily gained momentum at the sportsbooks since opening as 7.5-point favorites
  • The Chiefs enter the postseason riding a six-game SU and AYS win streak
  • Houston Texans have won three of four, but covered in just four of their past 11 outings

Sports bettors expect the Kansas City Chiefs to dominate when they host the Houston Texans in AFC Divisional Playoff action on Sunday. Since opening as 7.5-point favorites, Kansas City has made steady gains in the NFL odds at sportsbooks, climbing to 9.5-point chalk ahead of Sunday afternoon’s Texans vs Chiefs matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.

NFC Divisional Playoffs – Texans vs Chiefs Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Texans +9.5 (-107) +334 Ov 51 (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-107) -334 Un 51 (-105)

Odds taken Jan. 10

Healthy Mahomes, Hill Powering Chiefs Attack

Winners of six straight, the Chiefs enter the playoffs as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and pegged as a strong +335 bet in the Super Bowl odds. With Patrick Mahomes putting his early-season injury trouble behind him, the Chiefs have averaged 27.8 points per game during their six-game search, and are listed as +276 favorites to be the highest-scoring team on Divisional Playoff Weekend.

The Kansas City offense has also been bolstered by Tyreek Hill’s return to health. The Chiefs wide receiver suffered a shoulder injury in the team’s season opener but still caught two scoring passes while struggling to return to form in Kansas City’s 31-24 loss to the Texans in Week 6. Hill also battled through a hamstring injury in the second half of the campaign but averaged over 65 receiving yards per game over his final four appearances of the regular season.

Kansas City’s high-scoring ways have also earned the team considerable respect at the sportsbooks. A strong 62% of the betting handle has been laid on the Chiefs, along with 61% of the wager count, while 54% of sharp money is following the AFC West champions.

KC Defense Quietly Effective

But while the Chiefs have gained a reputation as a dominating offensive force, a steady defense has directly contributed to their current 6-0 ATS run. Kansas City has limited opponents to just 11.5 points per game during their six-game surge, surrendering nine or fewer points on three occasions during that stretch, to finish the campaign with the NFL’s seventh-ranked defense.

Despite such stingy play, the point total has steadily climbed this week since opening at 48.5 and is currently pegged at 51. Once again, sports bettors and sharps alike expect to see a high-scoring contest on Sunday, with 55% of the wager count and 59% of sharp money following the “Over”.

Sports bettors and sharps alike expect to see a high-scoring contest on Sunday, with 55% of the wager count and 59% of sharp money following the “Over”

Those betting figures have been influenced by the recent high-scoring matchups between these two squads. The “Over” has prevailed in each of the past two meetings between the Texans and Saints, who have each averaged over 60 points scored in those contests.

Recent Texans Contests Marked by Low Scoring

Offensive outbursts from the Texans have been rare of late. Houston is coming off a narrow 22-19 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills as 2.5-point home chalk on Wild Card Weekend, and have scored 24 or fewer points on seven occasions during a current 7-3 run for the “Under”.

The Texans have seen opponents run up the score in recent losses, allowing 38 points per game in each of its past three defeats. However, with the exception of a stunning 41-7 loss in Baltimore back in November, they have played steady defense on the road during the second half of the season, allowing fewer than 15 points per game over their past three victories. However, those efforts have failed to generate results for loyal sports bettors, with the Texans compiling a middling 4-6-1 ATS record over their past 11 contests.

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Porous O-Line, Slow Starts Hamper Houston

The Houston defense also received a big lift last weekend with the return of JJ Watt. The five-time Pro Bowl defensive end had been sidelined by injury since late October but played a key role in containing Bills quarterback Josh Allen last weekend while recording his fifth sack in eight overall appearances this weekend.

And while the Texans seized the opportunity to pick up the win over an injury-hobbled Chiefs squad earlier this season, they are likely to face a massive struggle in their bid to make it two in a row against Kansas City for the first time since 2010. The Houston offensive line must do a far better job of protecting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has been sacked 12 total times over his past two appearances.

In addition, Houston has blown first-half leads on two occasions during its current 3-1 SU run, in the team’s wins over Tennessee and Tampa Bay, and spotted the Bills a 16-0 lead before mounting an impressive comeback last weekend. The Chiefs will be far less forgiving under similar circumstances and will force the Texans to play error-free football in their bid to claim their first win in four all-time trips to Divisional Playoffs.

Picks: Chiefs -9.5 (-107); Under 51 (-105)

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