Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target
- One-point home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 games as a home underdog
- The Tennessee Titans are 7-0 ATS in their past seven games
- Which NFL teams are looking to be the best bets in the early Week 11 NFL picks against the spread? The following story will unearth these answers
In the Week 11 NFL picks against the spread, will history repeat itself for the Dallas Cowboys?
Last week, the Green Bay Packers were the NFC North team beating the Cowboys as home underdogs. This week, it’s the Minnesota Vikings’ turn. Dallas is set as 1-point favorites at Minnesota. But the Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games.
The NFL odds certainly weren’t picking the Washington Commanders to beat the Philadelphia Eagles last week. But it was Washington knocking Philadelphia from the ranks of the unbeaten. The Commanders are taking a 3-0 ATS record in their last three games to Houston as 3-point favorites over the Texans.
With a win last week over the Denver Broncos, the Tennessee Titans were extending their ATS unbeaten run to 7-0.
Should you be considering any of these teams as best bets in the NFL Week 11 ATS picks? Let’s take a look at that.
Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills | BUF-8.5 | BUF | 1 |
| New York Jets vs New England Patriots | NE -3 | NE | 1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers | KC-7 | KC | 1 |
Odds as of November 15 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the NFL.
Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Browns, Titans and Cowboys.
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NFL ATS Pick 1: Belichick Continues to Haunt Jets
First off, let’s talk about all the nice things going on with the Jets. They are 5-1 ATS over the past six games. And the Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Now, let’s discuss the Jets and Bill Belichick. Years ago, Belichick was briefly named coach of the Jets before thinking better of the idea. Ever since he’s been putting a beatdown on New York’s AFC team.
The AFC East is up for grabs. It’ll be a wild eight weeks. #nfl pic.twitter.com/tYSc5Bm8WS
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) November 13, 2022
New England has won 13 in a row SU over the Jets. The Patriots are 11-0 SU in the last 11 home games with the Jets as visitors. Factor in that the Jets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 divisional games and 1-10 SU in the last 11 games coming off the bye.
Pick: New England Patriots -3 (-110), 1 unit
NFL ATS Pick 2: Chiefs Beat Chargers, But Don’t Cover
The Kansas City Chiefs are going to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers. They are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road against them since the Chargers relocated from San Diego.
Covering the spread, though, that’s a different matter. Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in the past five games against the Chargers.
Pick: Los Angeles Chargers +7 (-110), 1 unit
NFL ATS Pick 3: Browns Get Throttled By Angry Bills
Despite successive losses, the Buffalo Bills remain the chalk in the Super Bowl odds. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Cleveland.
Next 2 #Bills opponents:#Browns – 26.4 points allowed per game #Lions – 29.3 points allowed per game
These need to be 2 games to get things right. #BillsMafia
— Dave Myers (@DaveMyersBIB) November 14, 2022
Buffalo is also 4-1-2 ATS as a favorite of 8.5+ points at home since the start of last season. The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against AFC East clubs and 1-7 SU in their last eight road games.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -8.5 (-110), 1 unit
- ATS season record 18-11-1
NFL Week 11 Against the Spread Quick Picks
- Titans (-3) vs Packers: Tennessee is 7-0 ATS over the past seven games. Green Bay is 2-9 ATS over the last 11 games.
- Ravens (-12) vs Panthers: Baker Mayfield returning as Carolina QB1 to face a familiar foe.
- Commanders (-3) vs Texans: The Commanders are 4-0-1 ATS over the past five games.
- Eagles (-6.5) vs Colts: Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in the last seven against Philadelphia. But the Colts are 1-3 ATS over the past four games.
- Giants (-3) vs Lions: Detroit is 1-12-1 SU in the club’s past 14 road games. The under is 1-16 in the Giants’ last 17 Sunday home games.
- Saints (-3) vs Rams: LA is getting QB Matthew Stafford (concussion), but are losing WR Cooper Kupp (ankle).
- Bears (+3) vs Falcons: Atlanta’s bubble is bursting, while Chicago QB Justin Fields is getting better every week.
- Broncos (-2.5) vs Raiders: Denver is 1-3 ATS at home. Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS on the road. Could both teams fail to cover?
- Bengals (-5) vs Steelers: Bengals are 6-1 ATS since opening the season 0-2.
- Vikings (+1) vs Cowboys: Dallas has won at Minnesota in each of the past two seasons. However, the Vikings are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog.
- 49ers (-8) vs Cardinals: San Francisco is 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine against Arizona. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in the last seven against NFL West opponents.
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
