NFL Week 16 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets and Underdog Picks

• Injuries under center a factor in NFL Week 16 upset picks
• Atlanta and Las Vegas hit the road as underdogs in dates with opponents dealing with passer injuries
• Read on for all the odds and trends as NFL Week 16 action continues

With just three weeks to go in the NFL schedule, the stakes are rising for a number of NFL teams battling both for playoff positioning and against injuries.

The Atlanta Falcons offer value as a betting underdog as they bring a stout defense to Baltimore to face the injury-hobbled Ravens as 6.5-point underdogs in the NFL odds.

Injuries could also be a factor as the Las Vegas Raiders look to extend their current run of favorable bounces with a visit to Pittsburgh as 2-point underdogs, while the Philadelphia Eagles can expect to encounter a struggling Cowboys defense in Saturday’s date in Dallas as 4.5-point dogs.

Here’s a look at our top picks to produce as underdogs in NFL Week 16.

NFL Week 16 Upset Picks

Odds as of December 24th at Caesars Sportsbook

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NFL Week 16 upset picks: Can Falcons D Stand Tall in Baltimore?

The Atlanta Falcons have struggled to generate points during a dismal 1-5 run, generating just 17.6 points per game, and 17 or fewer points five times over their past seven.

However, given the current state of the Ravens lineup, most notably the absence of injured quarterback Lamar Jackson, it will be another big performance from the Falcons defense that will be key to victory on Saturday.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (knee) was missing for this ninth straight practice. He’s not expected to play Saturday vs. Atlanta.

Tyler Huntley (right shoulder) was more active in practice today after being limited Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/uPWmCREdpk

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) December 22, 2022

The Falcons have surrendered just 19.7 points per game during their current three-game swoon, and the defense has been particularly effective against the rush, allowing no scoring runs over that stretch.

That is particularly bad news for the Ravens, who have failed to generate a scoring pass in three games without Lamar Jackson under center. If the Falcons can effectively slow down rusher JK Dobbins while sticking to their pass defense responsibility, they are poised to outlast the Ravens in a low-scoring contest.

Raiders Look to Extend Run of Good Fortune

The Las Vegas Raiders saw their recent stretch of good luck continue in last weekend’s shocking 30-24 last-second victory over New England. The Raiders have now claimed victory on the last play of the game three times during their current 4-1 run, including a pair of overtime wins as road underdogs.

The injuries to Steelers    key players Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson will excite Raiders fans. https://t.co/ykoLpYcKVZ pic.twitter.com/D101q9efzz

— RCFC Fan 2021 (@2021Rcfc) December 24, 2022

However, the Raiders have contributed to their own good fortune with stingy defense, particularly against the pass. Vegas defenders have surrendered an average of just 234 passing yards and four total TD passes over the past four games while racking up 15 sacks.

That doesn’t bode well for the Steelers, who face questions under center as rookie passer Kenny Pickett gets set to return to action after suffering a concussion. Indeed, the clear edge under center belongs to the Raiders in the wake of Derek Carr’s sixth multi-TD performance in seven outings. That should be enough for the Raiders to get past the offensively-challenged Steelers.

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No Jalen Hurts, No Problem for Eagles

The absence of injured star quarterback Jalen Hurts has contributed to the Eagles’ decline to 4-point underdogs in Saturday’s date with the Dallas Cowboys.

However, it is a stubborn Eagles pass defense that should be of far greater concern to the Cowboys. The Eagles defense has made life easy for Hurts up until now, allowing just seven total first-quarter points over the past three games, and no scoring passes outside of garbage time after recess during their 5-0 run.

That could emerge as a huge problem for a Cowboys defense that has seemingly lost its edge since enjoying an impressive first half of the season. Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence lit up the Cowboys for four TDs in last week’s 40-34 win over Dallas. That win came just one week after this team needed an epic fourth-quarter scoring drive to avoid losing to the lowly Houston Texans.

While Hurts’ absence denies the Eagles a dynamic dual threat, they have an array of other offensive tools at their disposal that can cause havoc in Big D.