Week 3 NFL Against The Spread Picks
- Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, September 26th
- Our best bets last week were 2-1 (2021 season: 2-4, -2.4 units)
- Read below for analysis on the Week 3 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks
After a rocky start to the NFL season, we bounced back in Week 2 posting a 2-1 record with our best ATS bets.
Week 3 brings us a chance to dig ourselves out of our early hole and potentially even sneak into the black.
Sunday’s slate (September 26th) is loaded with one score spreads (13 in total) and brings another opportunity to fade Jameis Winston and the talent deficient New Orleans Saints.
Week 3 ATS Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots | NE (-2.5) | NE (-2.5) | 1 |
| Washington Football Team vs Buffalo Bills | BUF (-7.5) | WFT (+7.5) | 1 |
| Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers | SF (-3.5) | GB (+3.5) | 1 |
Odds as of Sept. 23rd at FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM. See bottom for rest of Week 3 Picks.
Pats Squeak By Saints
The Saints are 2.5-point road underdogs in New England, fresh off a lifeless loss to the Carolina Panthers. As predicted, Jameis Winston turned back into a pumpkin last week, throwing two picks and absorbing four sacks. Winston has been hit on an NFL high 30% of his drop backs and now faces an excellent New England Patriots defense. The Pats have already racked up six sacks, 13 tackles for loss and five turnovers through two games.
2019 Jameis Winston has resurfaced pic.twitter.com/MMhwnyqwtt
— trey wingo (@wingoz) September 19, 2021
New Orleans is devoid of playmakers outside of Alvin Kamara, and if New England clamps down on him, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Saints. No New Orleans receiver caught more than two passes in Week 2, while Winston was the team’s leading rusher with a whopping 19 yards.
On the other side of the ball, Mac Jones has played mistake free football through two weeks, completing 74% of his passes. The Patriots want to lean heavily on the run and ease the burden on Jones’ shoulders and so far it’s been successful. New England is averaging 113 rushing yards per game, and is a Damien Harris fumble away from being 2-0 right now.
"One mistake won't define me" – Damien Harris on his fumble late in the 4th quarter vs the Dolphins today pic.twitter.com/9R8qRDOEaP
— NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) September 13, 2021
When they do take to the air Jones and company should find success, as only six teams have a worse pass rush grade then the Saints per Pro Football Focus, while New Orleans boasts a bottom-10 coverage unit early in the season.
Washington Covers Versus Buffalo
Next up, is the Washington Football Team getting 7.5-points in Buffalo. This line actually opened Bills -8.5, and while we’re not getting the best number, there’s still plenty of value on Washington.
Pittsburgh laid the blue print out for how to slow down Josh Allen and company in Week 1, and the Football Team actually has the personnel to replicate the strategy. Pittsburgh’s front four dominated without extra rushers in the season opener, racking up 20 hurries, 7 QB hits and 3 sacks. They held Allen to a 58.8% completion rate and his lowest QBR since Week 8 of last season (36.4).
Josh Allen was pressured 41% of the time in Week 1 and the Steelers basically didn't need to blitz at all.
How does he fare this week against the Dolphins?#BUFvsMIA
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) September 19, 2021
Washington’s pass rush is just as strong, with blue chippers up and down its defensive line. They’re the seventh highest graded pass rush unit per PFF, and are fresh off a four sack performance versus New York.
The Washington pass rush pressured Daniel Jones 17 times on 36 dropbacks (47.2% team pressure rate), led by Montez Sweat (@_sweat9) who finished with a career-high 7 QB pressures.#NYGvsWAS | #WashingtonFootball pic.twitter.com/5eWhKu2nE9
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 17, 2021
Allen meanwhile, is off to a slow start with only 449 passing yards and a 56% completion rate, while his counterpart is doing his best Ryan Fitzpatrick impression. Taylor Heinicke plays a hair on fire style similar to Fitzpatrick, the man he’s filling in for, and has thrown for at least 274 yards in all three of his career starts.
Washington has lost by 8 points just once in their last 14 games (and it was by exactly 8), and has covered in four of its past five as an underdog.
Green Bay Surprises San Francisco
Our final selection is the Green Bay Packers who are 3.5-point underdogs in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack bounced back in a big way on Monday Night, routing the Detroit Lions on the strength of four Aaron Jones touchdowns, three of which came through the air from Rodgers.
AARON JONES MANAGERS HOW ARE WE FEELING pic.twitter.com/iWle442wcJ
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) September 21, 2021
The 49ers meanwhile, had to scratch and claw their way past Philadelphia on the road, and will make their home debut. San Fran is off to a 2-0 start, but have major injury concerns in the backfield and secondary.
The Niners are down a starting corner and now Emmanuel Mosley is nursing a knee injury. The once vaunted San Francisco defense has been average at best this season, ranking 18th by PFF’s overall metrics, while boasting just the 14th highest graded pass rush.
Give Rodgers time to throw and he’ll eviscerate you. Rodgers has completed 82% of his throws in a clean pocket this season, for 307 yards and four scores.
I mean… just a wicked throw from Rodgers. Classic seam ball with defenders back turned. This is AR at his best… And the pass protection was outstanding last night
'Aaron Rodgers highlights are from the pocket…' pic.twitter.com/K0ir0TsLp4
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) September 21, 2021
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers want to keep the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands, but they’re running out of RB’s. Raheem Mostert is done for the season, while number two Elijah Mitchell and number three Trey Sermon appear doubtful for this contest.
San Francisco is 8-18-1 ATS as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan, while the Packers are 5 and 2 straight up as an underdog over the past two years.
Week 3 Quick Picks
- Jaguars (+7.5) vs Cardinals: Let down spot for Arizona. They barely snuck by Minnesota thanks to a missed field goal at the buzzer, and have the 49ers and LA Rams looming.
- Bears (+7) vs Browns: The Justin Fields era is officially underway. He’s a massive upgrade from Andy Dalton and gives Chicago a dimension on offense they’ve sorely been missing. Cleveland meanwhile is banged up, with Baker Mayfield nursing a shoulder injury and Jarvis Landry on IR.
- Ravens (-8) vs Lions: Detroit is PFF’s second lowest graded defense, and the 25th ranked run stopping unit. That doesn’t bode well for them with Lamar Jackson and the run heavy Ravens coming to town.
- Chargers (+6.5) vs Chiefs: The only defense that grades out worse than the Lions is Kansas City. The Chiefs are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games dating back to last season.
- Colts (+5.5) vs Titans: Frank Reich has led Indy to three straight victories in Tennessee. The Titans have surrendered an AFC worst 68 points, while the Colts have covered in four of their last five as an underdog.
- Falcons (+3) vs Giants: Daniel Jones is 4-10 ATS as a starter and Atlanta actually outgained Tampa Bay last week, and would have covered if not for two late pick-sixes.
- Steelers (-3) vs Bengals: Pittsburgh’s offense is an absolute disaster but their defense should be able to get pressure all day against Cincy’s 22nd graded pass rush. Expect an ugly, low-scoring affair.
- Broncos (-10) vs Jets: Might as well keep betting against New York until proven other wise. The Jets are 6-12 ATS since last season, the worst coverage percentage in the entire NFL.
- Rams (+1.5) vs Buccaneers: This game actually opened LA -1.5 but has done a complete 180. Still, there’s value on the Rams and they proved last season they can neutralize this high powered Tampa Bay attack. In 2020, LA forced two Tom Brady interceptions and held him to his lowest completion percentage in his Bucs tenure.
- Dolphins (+4.5) vs Raiders: This is more of a sell high on Las Vegas than anything. The Raiders are 8-18 ATS following a multi-game winning streak under Jon Gruden, and Jacoby Brissett will give Miami similar QB production to the injured Tua Tagovailoa.
- Seahawks (-1.5) vs Vikings: Minnesota is 7-11 ATS since the start of last season ranking behind only the Jets in cover percentage. Seattle meanwhile, is 14-6-2 ATS in its last 22 games where the line has fallen between -3 and +3.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
