Washington Capitals vs Columbus Blue Jackets (Game 4): Preview & Prediction
Don’t look now, but we’ve got ourselves a series! The perennially underperforming Washington Capitals breathed life into their Stanley Cup hopes on Monday with a 3-2 OT win in Columbus. The Caps can level the best-of-seven series at 2-2 in Game 4 tonight (7:30 PM ET, April 19) at Nationwide Arena.
The Jackets opened as small -111 home favorites on the moneyline. The over/under started at 5.5 with the odds shaded towards the over.
Below, find the full slate of opening odds, a comparison of the key stats and trends, significant injury news, and a final score prediction.
Opening Odds
| MONEYLINE | PUCKLINE | O/U GOALS |
|---|---|---|
| CAPITALS (-140) | CAPITALS +1.5 (+200) | OVER 6.0 (-114) |
| BLUE JACKETS (+127) | BLUE JACKETS -1.5 (-240) | UNDER 6.0 (+103) |
Depending which online betting site you were visiting, Game 3 was either a pick’em or the Capitals were small road favorites. Unsurprisingly, most of the sharp money went on the Jackets, who were solid at home this season (22-13-6) compared to Washington’s mediocre road mark (17-20-4).
But the hockey gods threw the usual dose of unpredictability into the playoffs with some pinball wizardry in overtime:
The lucky bounce was a long time coming for the hard-luck Caps, who have outshot the Jackets in every game of the series, yet dropped the first two at home, both in overtime.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from Game 3 is that Braden Holtby is back to being “the man” in the nation’s capital. The 2016 Vezina-winner was benched in favor of Philipp Grubauer in Game 1 and relieved the German part way through Game 2, after Grubauer surrendered four goals on just 22 shots.
Holtby had his worst season as a pro … but has never been the reason Washington’s stumbled in the playoffs.
Holtby had his worst season as a pro this year (.907 SV%, 2.99 GAA) but has never been the reason Washington’s stumbled in the playoffs, holding a .932 SV% and 1.98 GAA in 61 career playoff games.
Key Injuries & Absences
| CAPITALS | BLUE JACKETS |
|---|---|
| Andre Burakovsky: Out (UBI) | Lukas Sedlak: Out (concussion) |
| Alex Wennberg: Uncertain (UBI) |
Burakovsky missed Game 3, as well, aft. Jakub Vrana takes his spot on Washington’s second line with Nicklas Backstrom and TJ Oshie[.
Wennberg is still trying to work his way back from his own UBI. His status for Game 4 is unclear at this point. Sonny Milano will take Wennberg’s spot in the lineup if the Swede is a no-go again.
Team Stats
| CAPITALS | STATISTIC | BLUE JACKETS |
|---|---|---|
| 49-26-7 (17-20-4 Away) | REGULAR-SEASON RECORD | 45-30-7 (22-13-6 Home) |
| +20 (T 11th) | GOAL DIFFERENCE (LEAGUE RANK) | +12 (14th) |
| 3.15 GPG (T 9th) | GF/GAME | 2.95 GPG (16th) |
| 2.91 GAA (15th) | GA/GAME | 2.81 GAA (10th) |
| 47.35% (28th) | FENWICK % | 52.21% (7th) |
| 22.5% (5th) | POWER PLAY % | 17.2% (25th) |
| 80.3% (15th) | PENALTY KILL % | 76.2% (26th) |
| .909% (T 13th) | TEAM SV% | .912% (T 9th) |
Betting Results & Trends*
| CAPITALS | TREND | BLUE JACKETS |
|---|---|---|
| Won 1 | WIN/LOSS STREAK | Lost 1 |
| 6-4 | LAST 10 | 5-5 |
| 40-45 | PUCKLINE RECORD | 37-48 |
| 48-35-2 | OVER/UNDER SPLIT | 43-42-0 |
| Under 1 | OVER/UNDER STREAK | Under 1 |
*All statistics date back to regular season.
Score Prediction
| CAPITALS | 4 |
| BLUE JACKETS | 3 |
By all rights, the Capitals should be ahead in the series. They have generated 87 scoring chances through three games versus 73 for the Jackets and, as mentioned, outshot them in every game.
Sergei Bobrovsky (.925 SV%), Seth Jones (4 PTS; 32:43 TOI), and Artemi Panarin (2 G, 7 PTS) have been excellent for Columbus, but with Braden Holtby back between the pipes and looking more like his 2016 self than he did in the regular season, Washington should get the goaltending to reward their hard work in the offensive end.
Look for the road teams to stay perfect in this toss-up series.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
