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NASCAR Season Finale 500 Odds and Picks

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Racing

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 12:24 PM PST

Chase Elliott, left, and car owner Rick Hendrick celebrate in Victory Lane following their season championship victory in the NASCAR Cup Series auto race at Phoenix Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2020, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
  • The Season Finale 500 will take place on Sunday, November 8th, 2020 at Phoenix Raceway starting at 1:00 PM EST
  • Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano are the final four who are vying for the championship
  • Let’s take a look at the drivers on the board and see where the value lies

We’re on to the championship four this weekend and it’s hard to believe Kevin Harvick – who won a season-high nine races this year – won’t be among the finalists. Instead, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano will vie for the championship in Phoenix this weekend.

Of course, they’ll be joined by the other drivers in the field in Sunday’s Season Finale 500. The race will take place at Phoenix Raceway starting at 1:00 PM EST. With Chase Elliott on the pole, is he the best bet to win here or is there value with a different driver?

2020 NASCAR Season Finale 500 Odds

Driver Odds
Kevin Harvick +400
Chase Elliott +450
Denny Hamlin +450
Brad Keselowski +450
Joey Logano +500
Kyle Busch +1000
Martin Truex Jr +1100
Ryan Blaney +1800
Aric Almirola +4000
Alex Bowman +4000
Kurt Busch +4000
William Byron +6000

Odds taken Nov. 4 at DraftKings

Hop On Board With Harvick

It’s still hard to fully grasp that Harvick didn’t make the final four. He won nine races this season and finished in the top five spots 20 times. Nonetheless, he failed to make the cut after a mediocre showing at Martinsville last weekend.

Nonetheless, Harvick is probably out to prove a point this weekend. He’s always quite reliable at Phoenix Raceway as he hasn’t finished worse than ninth in 14 straight races. Ninth was the aberration as every other result was in the top six with a total of six wins. He should fare well here this weekend.

Value With Kyle Busch?

It clearly hasn’t been Kyle Busch’s year. The man who won the championship last season and collected a whopping eight wins has only picked up a single victory this season. However, that win was just two weeks ago and he appears to have some momentum. He has now finished in the top nine in seven of his last nine.

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Busch is fantastic at Phoenix Raceway as it’s one of his best tracks. His average driver finish here over the last three years is 2.71. He has 10 straight results of seventh or better with two wins and two runners-up. He’s flying under the radar a little bit this week but could be a good value play.

Past Winners at Season Finale 500

Year Driver
2019 Denny Hamlin
2018 Kyle Busch
2017 Matt Kenseth
2016 Joey Logano
2015 Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Almirola For A Top 10?

If you’re looking for someone off the grid who might have a chance for a Top 10 prop, take a look at Aric Almirola. Over his last six starts here, he’s finished in the top 10 in five of those outings. He has only led laps once in that span, so don’t expect him to win. However, another finish in the top 10 spots could be in the offing.

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Almirola hasn’t had a great end to the season as he was 13th or worse for five straight races before finishing seventh last weekend. However, that outing might bring him a little momentum on a track where he has been respectable of late.

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