Japan vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – Olympic Men’s Soccer Bronze Medal Game

• Japan and Mexico matchup in the Bronze Medal Game of the Olympic Men’s Soccer
• The match takes place on August, 6th, giving the two squads just a couple of days off
• Read below for the latest odds, betting analysis and a pick

After two dramatic defeats in the semifinals, Japan and Mexico are left to battle it out in the Bronze Medal Game on Friday. Each put up a fight against Spain and Brazil respectively, with Japan taking the Spaniards to extra time and Mexico falling in a penalty shootout to the tournament favorite Brazilians.

It wasn’t to be for the two underdogs, however. Instead of a guaranteed medal on Saturday, it’s a high-pressure encounter on Friday. The bookies can barely split the two, with Japan only narrowly favored at +160 compared to Mexico’s moneyline price of +165.

Both teams welcome players back from suspension in Takehiro Tomiyasu and Jorge Sanchez.

Japan vs Mexico Odds

Odds as of Aug 5 at DraftKings

Contrasting Styles

Where Mexico flies around the pitch and create chances for fun, Japan have been more reserved. They haven’t conceded a goal in 180 minutes of regular time in their two knockout matches. It was a resolute display against Spain until Marco Asensio’s heart-breaking extra-time winner, and even though the possession was as good as level against New Zealand, they were able to dominate the match with 21 shots to eight.

Mexico’s blueprint is different. They attack in numbers, and they generate opportunities even when relinquishing possession. It was six goals on 14 shots against South Korea despite having 45% of the ball, and when facing Brazil, they posed a threat despite the Brazilians really dominating possession.

🇪🇸 Marco Asensio the hero as Spain reach Olympic football final ⚽️#Tokyo2020 | #UCL pic.twitter.com/HbULoyRyrk

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) August 3, 2021

While it’s clear how both teams want to play, fatigue is clearly going to be a factor after each playing 120 minutes in the semifinals. Mexico’s high-octane game might flounder.

Group Stage Clash

Of course, we have a recent example of how it looks when these teams play. Japan got the better of the Mexicans in the group stage, running out 2-1 winners after goals from Takefusa Kubo and Ritsu Doan. They had a 2-0 after 11 minutes.

Such early goals clearly impact the pattern of the match. Mexico had 62% possession, though Japan was obviously happy to absorb pressure after taking an early lead.

Takehiro Tomiyasu vs France :

Pass Accuracy : 94%
Accurate Long Balls : 5/6
Duels Won : 4/5
Aerial Duels : 1/1
Tackles : 2/2
Interceptions : 1
Recoveries : 5
Clearances : 3 (1 headed)
Dispossessed : 0 times
Fouled : 1 time pic.twitter.com/kUGrJGpHF9

— Prazini Linguine 🧢 (@PravidVilla) July 28, 2021

It was a physical encounter, with five yellow cards in the match and both teams racking up the fouls. Similar can be expected on Friday with a medal at stake. It could be a feisty matchup in midfield, and the team which remains disciplined will inevitably get the upper hand.

Experience in a match of this magnitude is important. The central defensive partnership of Maya Yoshida and Tomiyasu gives a firm foundation to build upon. Tomiyasu’s return should help to cope with the scintillating Mexico attack, while Doan, Kubo and Yuki Soma provide the creativity in the final third.

Japan vs Mexico Statistics

Low Scorer

Mexico’s attack has been relentless in this tournament, but fatigue could limit them in this one. Japan also did a solid job of keeping them quiet in the group stage, and the return of Tomiyasu only fortifies a defense that has conceded two goals in their five matches so far.

It might go against the general trend, but there’s value on under 2.5 here. Mexico hit the ‘Over’ in their first four matches, yet they had to wait until the final few minutes to get on the score sheet against Japan. The host nation has shown how resilient they are defensively, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this follow a similar pattern to the semifinals.

These are two well-matched teams. It’s worth considering the draw after 90 minutes at +250.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals in regular time (-110)