Liga NOS Matchday 28 Odds & Picks: Risk vs. Value Plays

• It’s been far from smooth sailing out of the post COVID-19 return for Benfica and Porto, who are tied for the Liga NOS lead on 64 points entering Matchday 28
• Portimonense in a virtual must-win hosting Maritimo, seven points from safety in the relegation race
• Get all the odds and best bets for Matchday 28 in Portugal below

It’s been far from smooth sailing in the post-COVID  return for Benfica and Porto, who are tied for the Liga NOS lead at 64 points entering Matchday 28.

Fresh off a disappointing 0-0 draw at last-place Aves, Porto are -323 favorites for the Derby Da Invicta (Porto regional rivalry) against Boavista (+875), who will be on two days shorter rest.

Benfica (-303) play immediately prior (2:15pm ET) to their fellow title hopefuls (4:15pm ET) on Tuesday, as they host mid-table Santa Clara (+700) at the Estadio da Luz.

But if you’re looking for the games to wager, we move from the top of the standings to find a few more intriguing value plays. Check out our best betting predictions as we explore Matchday 28.

Liga NOS Matchday 28 Odds

All odds taken June 20

Portimonense vs. Maritimo

We have entered do-or-die season for Portimonense (3-12-12), who sit seven points back of safety and their 15th-place Monday visitors Maritimo (6-10-11).

It’s hard to believe, but Paulo Sergio’s Portimonense are actually unbeaten (1-2-0) since the COVID restart, while Maritimo are 0-1-4 in their last five away matches.

With their first-division survival on the line and considering Maritimo’s awful road form, Portimonense could be a value option at home.

Pick: Portimonense (+106)

Vit. Setubal vs. Rio Ave

Two teams that have gone in opposite directions over the past 10 matchdays in Portugal will meet on Tuesday in Setubal, where Vitoria (6-12-9) host Rio Ave (11-8-8).

In a season that once held the faintest hope of rare European qualification, Setubal have since slumped into their current nine-game winless drought (0-5-4) and down to 12th in the league table. Rio Ave, on the other hand, were one of the league’s hottest teams — enjoying a nine-game unbeaten run (5-4-0) — prior to COVID-19 and sat as high as fifth.

Carlos Carvalhal’s Rio Ave have struggled out of the break, however, with losses against Paços (2-3) and Benfica (0-1) casting doubt on European hopes. A road win on Tuesday at the Estadio Bonfim — where they’ve won in two of their last three trips — could be a nice bounce back.

Pick: Rio Ave (+116)

Sporting Braga vs. Vit Guimaraes

Our theme of even-ish picks continues on Thursday with the Derbi do Minho, as struggling Braga (14-5-8) host an also-muddling Guimaraes (10-7-7) in a game that would typically see serious fireworks and fan clashes.

Braga sit third in the league and have owned this rivalry of late, winning four of the last five meetings, including a 2-0 win at Guimaraes in November, but have also struggled out of the COVID break with a single point from three games against mid-table opponents.

Guimaraes have battled discipline and consistency issues since the restart, with two red cards in three matches — all draws — for Ivo Vieira’s men.

13 – Rúben Amorim remains unbeaten as a manager in the Primeira Liga (P13 W11 D2), including wins in his two home game in charge of Sporting CP. Rookie. pic.twitter.com/BjeTviGe2T

— OptaJoao (@OptaJoao) June 15, 2020

Braga have struggled since the mid-season departure of hotshot rookie manager Ruben Amorim, with a solitary win in four matches since he left for Sporting on March 4.

Pick: Guimaraes +0.5 (-119)