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2019 Vienna Open Semifinals​ Odds & Pick: Schwartzman vs Monfils

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 4, 2020 · 3:21 PM PDT

Monfils throws up a serve.
Can Gael Monfils win his Saturday semifinal with Diego Schwartzman? Photo by Tatiana (Flickr) [CC License].
  • Gael Monfils has a slight 2-1 edge with Diego Schwartzman in head-to-head matchups
  • Monfils has played just one player in the Top 100 so far this tournament (No. 72)
  • Schwartzman was 1-3 in his last three tournaments entering 2019 Erste Bank Open

The 2019 Erste Bank Open has mostly been a by-the-book tournament as the No. 1, 3, 4 and 5 seeds have advanced to the semifinals. On Saturday, No. 4 Gael Monfils will face off with No. 5 Diego Schwartzman in a matchup of two players who made deep runs at the 2019 US Open. Which of the two is the best bet?

Diego Schwartzman vs Gael Monfils Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Diego Schwartzman +1.5 (-107) +123 22.5 (-110)
Gael Monfils -1.5 (-113) -143 22.5 (-110)

Odds taken October 25, 2019

Monfils Has Mostly Cruised

Monfils entered the tournament as the No. 4 seed and among the favorites to win this event, so it’s not surprising to see him in the final four. He had to sweat a little bit in his opening match after he dropped the opening set, but he’s won every set since.

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Monfils has not had to play anyone that’s really all that challenging as his first two matches were against wild cards and then his quarterfinal matchup was with a qualifier. He’s done fairly well taking care of business as he’s lost just 23 games since dropping his opening set.

Schwartzman Has Impressed

Schwartman entered this tournament having struggled as he had dropped three of his last four matchups before the Vienna Open. He was actually just 1-3 in his last three tournaments overall; he’s already won three matchups at the Erste Bank Open to get to the semis.

While Monfils hasn’t really played anyone, the same can’t be said for Schwartzman. The Argentinean is coming off a big win over No. 2 Karen Khachanov, a player he had not previously defeated. Schwartzman also had to play Sam Querrey in the second round, who is a Top 50 player and Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the opener round, who is ranked 66th.

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For contrast, Monfils has only played one player ranked in the Top 100 so far, which was Aljaz Bedene, who is ranked 72nd in the world. It’s quite clear that Schwartzman has had the tougher path and he’s done well on it. He’s dropped just one set to date.

Schwartzman vs Monfils Statistical Comparison

38-22 2019 Record 35-16
1 2019 Singles Titles 1
1 Head-To-Head Record 2
1 Sets Lost at 2019 Vienna Open 1
1 Seeded Players Defeated at 2019 Vienna Open 0

Who is the Better Bet?

Monfils and Schwartzman have squared off three times and Monfils has the slight edge at 2-1. The two players have split their two clay-court matchups as Monfils won at Roland Garros in 2015 while Schwartzman won in Rio de Janeiro in 2018. Monfils won the hard-court match in Antwerp in 2018.

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Schwartzman is the dog here but I think he’s got a good shot to pull this off. He’s playing really well right now and Monfils has merely cut through some cupcakes. This match is a close toss-up but you’re getting +123 with the Argentinian. I’ll bet on him to pull this mild upset.

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