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2019 Vienna Open Semifinals​ Odds & Pick: Thiem vs Berrettini

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Oct 25, 2019 · 12:11 PM PDT

Thiem at the Erste Bank Open
Dominic Thiem has won 10 of his last 11 matches overall and now faces Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals. Photo by Marián 2 (Wikimedia) [CC License].
  • Dominic Thiem has won 10 of his last 11 matches overall
  • Matteo Berrettini has won 13 of his last 17 matches
  • Thiem and Berrettini have split their two meetings with Thiem winning on clay and Berrettini winning on the hard courts

Dominic Thiem and Matteo Berrettini – two players that were playing well heading into the 2019 Erste Bank Open – will now square off in one of the two semifinals on Saturday. They’re the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds in Austria and both were among the favorites before the tournament started. Who is the best bet for Saturday’s affair?

Matteo Berrettini vs Dominic Thiem Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Matteo Berrettini +2 (-114) +132 22.5 (-129)
Dominic Thiem -2 (-106) -152 22.5 (+109)

Odds taken October 25, 2019

Thiem Has Mostly Had an Easy Ride

Theim has mostly had an easy path to the semis in Vienna. He’s yet to play a seeded player and in the quarters, Pablo Carreno Busta retired after five games. Thiem did have to go to a tiebreaker in his opening match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but still won in straight sets, and he did drop a set to Fernando Verdasco before winning the final two.

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Overall, this has mostly been a breeze for Thiem, who has lost a total of 15 games so far.

Berrettini Has Been Pushed

The big-serving Italian has had a strong year on the hard courts but he’s had to sweat a little bit in the Erste Bank Open. His first match required the full three sets as Kyle Edmund won the first set off of him. After that, he needed two tiebreakers to win his second match and needed to win seven games in both sets of his quarters matchup.

The difference here is that Berrettini has actually played some tough opponents. He faced Grigor Dimitrov in the second round, which is an unusually challenging match that early, and then had to face another quality opponent in Andrey Rublev. Both players are seeded in the Top 30 of the ATP rankings.

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On the year, Berrettini is now a healthy 42-19 and has now won 13 of his last 17 matches.

Berrettini vs Thiem Statistical Comparison

42-19 2019 Record 43-16
2 2019 Singles Titles 4
1 Head-To-Head Record 1
1 Sets Lost at 2019 Vienna Open 1
0 Seeded Players Defeated at 2019 Vienna Open 0

Who Has the Upper Hand?

Berrettini and Thiem have only met twice before and they’ve split the two meetings. However, a deeper dive into the surface is a bit more telling. Thiem, a clay-court specialist, beat Berrettini at the 2018 French Open. However, Berrettini won their only hard-court meeting, beating him in straight sets in Shanghai a couple of weeks ago.

Thiem has been on fire of late as he won the tournament in Beijing and has won 10 of his last 11 matches. However, at a closer look, he hasn’t topped too many elite-level players outside of maybe Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is also a clay-court specialist.

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Thiem’s only loss in that stretch was to Berrettini and I’m expecting another one on Saturday. Berrettini has played far tougher competition in this tournament and he’s the better player on the hard courts. You also get him as a small dog here, so take him either on the spread or the moneyline.

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