Garcia vs Sakkari and Swiatek vs Sabalenka Odds & Predictions – WTA Finals Semifinals
- World No. 1 Iga Swiatek remains the heavy favorite to win the WTA Finals
- Swiatek faces Aryna Sabalenka Saturday, while Caroline Garcia plays Maria Sakkari
- Read on as we break down these matchups, and make predictions
It’s no surprise that Swiatek went through the group stages of this year’s WTA Finals undefeated. It’s more of a surprise that Maria Sakkari, after a challenging year, did the same. Both are favorites to win their semifinals Saturday. Read on for a detailed analysis of Garcia vs Sakkari and Swiatek vs Sabalenka.
Garcia vs Sakkari Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [6] Caroline Garcia (FRA) | +1.5 (-115) | +110 | O 22.5 (-107) |
| [5] Maria Sakkari (GRE) | -1.5 (-109) | -137 | U 22.5 (-118) |
Odds as of Nov 6 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the WTA Finals.
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For Sakkari, the opening round of group play this week was the toughest one. She played Jessica Pegula, who had just routinely dispatched her to win the Guadalajara Open a week before.
That was two tiebreaks. Her wins over Aryna Sabalenka and Ons Jabeur were routine by comparison.
And while she’s only a slight favorite to defeat Caroline Garcia, she carries much more momentum into their Saturday semifinal (4:30 p.m. ET)
Garcia vs Sakkari Head-to-Head
| 29 (Oct. 16, 1993) | Age | 27 (July 25, 1995) |
| Saint-German-en-Laye, France | Birthplace | Athens, Greece |
| 5-10 | Height | 5-8 |
| 10 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 4 (Sept. 10, 2018) | Career-Best Ranking | No.3 (March 21, 2022) |
| No. 6 | Current Ranking | No. 5 |
| $13, 494,141 | Career Prize Money | $7,582,028 |
| 43-20 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 40-22 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head Wins | 0 |
Big Step Forward for Garcia
For Garcia, everything was riding on her match against No. 8 seed Daria Kasatkina Friday. It was a winner-take-all affair with the victor advancing to the semifinals.
Somehow, Garcia got through.
By the end, she could barely move. But she had just enough fight. The question will be what she has left for Sakkari, who did not play on Friday and hasn’t lost all week.
Garcia vs Sakkari Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Cincinnati (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (2), 6-7 (6), 6-1 | Garcia |
| 2017 | Wuhan (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Garcia |
The good news for Garcia is that her history against Sakkari is excellent; she’s won both previous encounters.
The context is that both came when Garcia was on a serious roll.
In both cases, she was surging and ended up qualifying for a spot in the year-end finals.
Garcia vs Sakkari Prediction
For this match, it’s Sakkari who is on a roll.
And the 27-year-old from Greece is also by far the fresher of the two – physically and emotionally.
That might well prove to be the difference in a lengthy match.
Best Bet: Sakkari in Three Sets (+300)
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Iga Swiatek (POL) | -5.5 (+110) | -560 | O 19.5 (-132) |
| [7] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) | +5.5 (-139) | +400 | U 19.5 (+104) |
Sabalenka, with all the talent in the world, has spent much emotional energy in 2022 trying to overcome a fairly serious case of the serving yips.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head
| 21 (May 31, 2001) | Age | 24 (May 5, 1998) |
| Warsaw, Poland | Birthplace | Minsk, Belarus |
| 5-9 | Height | 5-11 |
| 11 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 10 |
| No. 1 (April 4, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $14,265,077 | Career Prize Money | $11,424,910 |
| 67-8 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 32-21 |
| 4 | Head-to-Head Wins | 1 |
Despite that, she was good enough to make the final eight.
Her comeback victory over Ons Jabeur, the No. 2 seed who wasn’t really a factor this week, was a huge mental and emotional win. But she’s not out of those particular woods, yet.
Swiatek Undefeated Into the Semifinals
For Swiatek, it has all seemed like smooth sailing.
There was little at stake in her final group match against American Coco Gauff. But from 3-3 in the first set, she won nine straighth games and sent the 18-year-old home winless.
22. Et un 🥯 de plus dans la vitrine !
Déjà qualifiée, @iga_swiatek n'a pas eu de pitié pour Coco Gauff. La Polonaise a infligé son 22ème "6/0" de la saison sur le circuit principal. pic.twitter.com/tLT40Q6Qmn
— Jeu, Set et Maths (@JeuSetMaths) November 6, 2022
It was the 22nd time in 2022 that Swiatek had dropped a bagel on her opponent. And it was her 15th consecutive win against a fellow top-10 player.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | US Open (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 | Swiatek |
| 2022 | Rome (SF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-2, 6-1 | Swiatek |
| 2022 | Stuttgart (F) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 6-2 | Swiatek |
| 2022 | Doha (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-3 | Swiatek |
| 2021 | WTA Finals (RR) | Outdoor Hard | 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 | Sabalenka |
The two met for the very first time at last year’s WTA Finals, with neither seizing the occasion very well but Sabalenka pulling through.
But they have already played four times this year. And only in the US Open semifinals in September was Sabalenka even able to take a set off Swiatek.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Prediction
It’s not that Sabalenka isn’t capable of beating a full-force Swiatek.
It’s just that she’s never done it.
And as much positive karma as she’s built this week, her road map against the world No. 1 this year is too much baggage to overcome in this semifinal.
Best Bet: Under 19.5 Games (+104)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
