French Open Men’s Singles Quarterfinals Odds & Previews Oct 7: Rublev vs Tsitsipas & Djokovic vs Carreno Busta
- French Open favorite Novak Djokovic highlights Wednesday’s Men’s Quarterfinal Action
- Youngsters Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas seek their first French Open semifinal berth
- See the odds for all matches within the story below
Predictably the the top three seeds in the French Open reached the quarterfinals.
Is Novak Djokovic a runaway train that can not be derailed, or at least not at this stage by Pablo Carreño Busta? Which 22-year-old, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Andrey Rublev holds an edge?
Betting on tennis used to be about the basics, who will win, and how long will the match last. At times that is still the best way to wager. Let’s look closely at the two quarters and see if we can find some bets that provide value.
Rublev vs Tsitsipas French Open Quarterfinal Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | +1.5 games (+102) | +128 | Over 41.5 games (-109) |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | -1.5 games (-129) | -157 | Under 41.5 games (-114) |
All odds from DraftKings taken Oct. 5
Rublev vs Tsitsipas History
Two up-and-comers meet for the sixth time in their young careers and second on clay. Rublev holds a three-to-two edge including a 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 victory on clay in the championship match in Hamburg on September 27.
Which Rublev Shows Up?
Rublev may have come to Paris with confidence after winning his third tour title of the year. However, he got in trouble right off the bat. He had to rally from a two set deficit to get by Sam Querrey in the first round.
His second match was a four set win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. After making easy work of Kevin Anderson, he lost the opening set but won three straight against Marton Fucsovics in the fourth round.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FaDGNKRfkA
The fact Rublev would have some struggles isn’t all that crazy considering his only two appearances before this year at Roland Garros were in the qualifiers in 2016, and dropping his only match in the main draw in 2017.
Before going on his current nine match clay court winning streak, Rublev was 6-3 on the surface this year. Historically his win percentage on clay is on par with his work on hard courts, and better than his grass form.
Tsitsipas Is Steadily Growing
In 2017, Tsitsipas qualified for his French Open debut and was dismissed in the first round. A year later he didn’t need to go through qualies, won his first match, and took a set off of Dominic Thiem in the second round.
Last year Tsitsipas reached the fourth round and fell to Stan Wawrinka 8-6 in the fifth set.
Tsitsipas grew up playing on clay courts in Greece and he has won better than 73% of his matches on his best surface. While his 2020 form on the clay wasn’t great prior to Hamburg, it has clearly where he is most comfortable. That said, he is seeking a second major semifinal after falling to Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open semis in 2019.
This feels like it should be a very tight and likely lengthy match. Options including having at least one tiebreak (-220), and it going four sets or more (-240) seem strong but the prices aren’t great. You can get +200 that it reaches a fifth set and between being evenly matched, the way they looked against each other recently, and how they have played in Paris, that is the call.
Djokovic vs Carreno Busta French Open Quarterfinal Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | -8.5 games (-107) | -1115 | Over 30.5 games (-122) |
| Pablo Carreño Busta | +8.5 games (-118) | +750 | Under 30.5 games (-104) |
Djokovic vs Carreño Busta History
Djokovic, an all time great who has won 17 grand slam titles, has won his first three career matches with Carreño Busta. Nobody could have seen what was coming when they got together most recently, at the U.S. Open last month.
Djokovic being disqualified gave Carreño Busta his first win against the top ranked player. They’ve met twice on clay with Djokovic taking both battles.
Can Djokovic Be Stopped?
Djokovic is an astounding 35-1 this year with the disqualification his only setback. In a French Open warm-up tournament on clay in Rome he dropped two sets, one in a tiebreak, and took care of Casper Ruud in the semifinals and Diego Schwartzman in the final in straight sets.
The world’s top ranked player dropped exactly five games in each of his first three matches in Paris this year, making easy work of Mikael Ymer, Ricardas Berankis, and Daniel Elahi Galan. In the fourth round he got by Karen Khachanov 6-4, 6-3, 6-3.
Djokovic has won the French Open just once, in 2016. He was upset in the Final by Wawrinka in 2015. In 2017 and 2018 Djokovic was knocked off in the quarters. Last year he fell to Thiem in the semis.
Does Carreno Busta Have a Puncher’s Chance?
Carreno Busta won just two total matches during his first four trips to Roland Garros, but recently things have improved. He was a quarterfinalist in 2017, and won two matches each of the last two years.
He came to Paris this year playing fairly well. After Djokovic was disqualified in New York, Carreno Busta upset Denis Shapovalov in five sets, and took Alexander Zverev to four sets in the semis. In a warm-up tournament for the French Open he got an unlucky draw and was demolished by Nadal in straight sets on clay in Rome.
At the French Open this year Carreno Busta beat John Millman and Guido Pella in straight sets before earning a four set victory over Roberto Bautista Agut. He dominated Daniel Altmaier to earn the trip to the semis.
Carreno Busta is 5-32 overall all time against Top 10 competition.
There is no compelling reason why this should be a competitive match. Djokovic to sweep is -175, and laying 8.5 games costs -121. Seeking improved odds and expecting a blowout +102 for under 29.5 games, +140 for under 28.5, and +265 for under 26.5 are all worthy of serious consideration.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
