Novak Djokovic vs Kei Nishikori Odds & Prediction – Olympic Men’s Tennis Quarterfinals
- Novak Djokovic is the heavy favorite to defeat home-country hero Kei Nishikori Thursday in Tokyo
- The Serb’s dominating 16-2 head-to-head against the Japanese explains the odds
- We look for some value beyond those odds in this quarterfinal Olympic matchup
A clash against the world No. 1 for the chance to play for a medal in his “home” Olympics must be a bucket-list moment Kei Nishikori has been waiting for his entire career.
What a shame, then, that the big stadium court in Tokyo will be deserted.
And that’s to Novak Djokovic’s advantage – as if he needed more elements in his favor.
Novak Djokovic vs Kei Nishikori Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -5.5 (-135) | -2000 | O 18.5 (-145) |
| Kei Nishikori (JPN) | +5.5 (+100) | +900 | U 18.5 (+105) |
Odds as of July 28 at DraftKings
Djokovic has Nishikori’s Number
The biggest problem Nishikori has against Djokovic is that the skills that brought him to No. 4 in the world are all things Djokovic does even better.
His consistency, legs and defense are what have gotten the 31-year-old this far. Djokovic has all those things – and so much more.
It’s not just that the Serb holds a 16-2 record against Nishikori. It’s that they’ve played 46 sets during their long rivalry, and Nishikori has won just nine of them. In those 16 losses, he has taken just four sets. He hasn’t beaten Djokovic since 2014.
Novak Djokovic vs Kei Nishikori Hard Court Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Australian Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 4-1 retd | Djokovic |
| 2018 | US Open (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2016 | Masters Canada (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 7-5 | Djokovic |
| 2016 | Masters Miami (F) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-3 | Djokovic |
| 2016 | Australian Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 | Djokovic |
| 2014 | US Open (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 (4), 6-3 | Nishikori |
| 2014 | Masters Miami (SF) | Outdoor Hard | W/O | Djokovic |
Nice Run for Nishikori
Nishikori’s recent history has been about coming back from a chronic elbow issue. But he began his Olympic campaign with a bang as he upset No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev in straight sets.
After that, he squared off against lesser-ranked players Marcos Giron and Ilya Ivashka and came through. His second set against Ivashka finished 6-0.
Three quarter-finals in a row at the #Olympics for @keinishikori!
After London 2012 and Rio 2016, the #JPN reaches the last 8 again at #Tokyo2020, defeating Ilya Ivashka 7-6(7) 6-0#Tennis pic.twitter.com/l2W3TUdUzx
— ITF (@ITFTennis) July 28, 2021
The 31-year-old’s rather pedestrian 15-13 won-loss record coming in belies the gradual improvement in his form. Being unseeded these days means meeting top players earlier on in tournaments.
Since Miami in late March, Nishikori has lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas, Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev. The German star beat him in three straight major events – Madrid, Rome and the French Open.
But even vintage Nishikori has struggled against Djokovic.
Novak Djokovic vs Kei Nishikori Head-to-Head
| 34 (May 22, 1987) | Age | 31 (Dec. 29, 1989) |
| Belgrade, Serbia | Birthplace | Shimane, Japan |
| 6-2 | Height | 5-10 |
| 85 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 12 |
| No. 1 (July 4, 2011) | Career High Ranking | No. 4 (March 2, 2015) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 69 |
| $151,876,636 | Career Prize Money | $24,738,177 |
| 37-3 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 18-13 |
| 16 | Career ATP Head to Head | 2 |
Djoko on a Mission
Against Hugo Dellien, Jan-Lennard Struff and No. 16 seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Djokovic has been dominant. Struff managed seven games; the other two, just four.
Nina Stojanovic enjoying the Novak Djokovic experience up close.@Ninockaaa @@DjokerNole pic.twitter.com/jv6bGUsoSz
— . (@tennisgifsmedia) July 28, 2021
Djokovic also decided to enter the mixed doubles with countrywoman Nina Stojanovic. They won their first round Wednesday; Djokovic will play the mixed doubles quarterfinals later in the day Thursday, after the singles quarterfinal.
Working on my splits with @teambelgium gymnastics 😉 🇧🇪🇷🇸🙌🏼 @ninaderwael @mae_gym #Tokyo2020 pic.twitter.com/xOOIBYldph
— Novak Djokovic (@DjokerNole) July 24, 2021
Social media is full of photos of Djokovic with other athletes from around the world. So he’s maximizing as much as he can, given the restrictions in Tokyo and seems to be having the time of his life being the resident rock star.
Although … it turns out he’s not such a great good-luck charm.
Important stat for Indian athletes in Tokyo. Every 🇮🇳 Olympian who has posed for a picture with Novak Djokovic has lost in their first match. Please keep the rest away from the Serb. pic.twitter.com/MhlwShrMEn
— jonathan selvaraj (@jon_selvaraj) July 26, 2021
Djokovic also is chasing history. With the first three Grand Slam tournaments of the year in his pocket, he’s looking for gold in Tokyo.
A title at the US Open would complete the “Golden Slam”. Only Steffi Graf in 1988 has ever accomplished that.
Empty Stands Mean No “Home-Field” Advantage
Djokovic won’t have to battle the “third man” on court – the crowd. Imagine what a moment it would be for Nishikori to try to cause a major upset with a full house of 10,000 going crazy – almost all of them in his corner. You’d give at least a shot, in that atmosphere.
That’s not to be, though.
While anything can happen – especially in the Olympics, and even more especially on the men’s side – this one doesn’t smell like a monumental upset.
The money line is fairly discouraging, but the odds for Djokovic to win in straight sets are more intriguing. So are the odds for Nishikori and +5.5 games (+100).
Best Bet: Djokovic in two sets (-330)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
