Roberto Bautista Agut vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Astana Open Quarterfinals

• Roberto Bautista Agut and Daniil Medvedev will meet for the sixth time Friday in Nur-Sultan
• It is the fifth straight time they will meet at the quarterfinals stage; Bautista leads their head-to-head 4-1
• Medvedev remains the favorite; scroll down as we break down the match and make our Agut vs Medvedev picks

Given the head to head in the matchup between Roberto Bautista Agut and Daniil Medvedev, it’s somewhat shocking the Russian is a fair favorite in their quarterfinal Friday, October 7 at the ATP 500 Astana Open.

Bautista Agut vs Medvedev Odds

Odds as of Oct. 6 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Astana Open

Bottom Half in Kazakhstan the Good Half

As loaded as the Astana Open draw was at the start (especially compared to its competitor in Tokyo), things thinned out a little when Jannik Sinner withdrew late, after injuring himself in his previous tournament in Sofia.

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As it was, Medvedev definitely had the “easier” half in the early going. And the fact that No. 8 seed Félix Auger-Aliassime, who was coming off an upset of world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in Davis Cup, lost his opening round helped his cause even more.

Of course, Medvedev is 4-0 vs Auger-Aliassime. Against Bautista Agut, who authored that first-round upset of the Canadian, Medvedev is … 1-4 in his career.

 Bautista Agut vs Medvedev Head-to-Head

And in those four defeats, Medvedev has only managed to take one set.

Despite his 2022 won-loss record of 39-14, the former world No. 1 has scuffled quite a bit this year.

He reached the Australian Open final, losing an absolute heartbreaker to Rafael Nadal after being up two sets to none. And even though he took over the No. 1 ranking a month later, a piece of his soul left the then-reigning US Open champion. And it doesn’t appear he’s gotten it back.

The only tournament Medvedev has won in 2022 was a small 250 in Los Cabos, just before the big North American summer hard-court events.

He did make two grass-court finals before Wimbledon. But then he wasn’t allowed, because of his nationality, to play Wimbledon.

In his defense, he’s almost always lost to very good players. Twice – in Montreal and at the US Open – he fell to Nick Kyrgios.

Bautista Agut vs Medvedev Match History

One key to those defeats was Medvedev’s relative lack of success with his first serve. He’s at 76 percent this season (about his career average overall) winning first-serve points.

But in those three defeats, he averaged below 70 percent. More pertinently, Bautista Agut’s success rate was far higher in all three matches even if he’s barely in the top 50 on the ATP Tour in that category this year.

The Russian still had nine break points against his serve in his one win, in Halle on grass this summer. The key was that Medvedev managed to save all nine.

Medvedev is known for a big serve, with a great trajectory down from his 6-foot-6 frame.

Bautista Agut? Not so much. He’s efficient. But as far back as Medvedev stands to return, and with Bautista Agut not often blowing his serve past anyone, it’s rather surprising.

Bautista Agut vs Medvedev Pick

The two are regular practice partners, in addition to all those on-court confrontations.

So there won’t be many surprises for either of them.

The key battle will be between Bautista Agut’s well-earned confidence against the Russian, and Medvedev’s desire to finish a tough season with a flourish.

Medvedev is still in very good shape in terms of making the ATP Finals in Turin in November. But he can’t take it for granted.

And it behooves him to up his form, as he’s defending finalist points both at the Paris Masters and the Tour finals.

Best Bet: Over 0.5 Tiebreaks (+160)