Spain vs Canada Odds & Picks – ATP Cup Finals

• While Spain cruised through the week, Canada had to overcome adversity to join them in the ATP Cup final.
• The matches (two singles and a doubles) take place in Sydney, Australia at 1:30 a.m. ET Sunday
• Read on as we break down the singles clashes and find the best value

Team Canada had to defeat Alexander Zverev and Germany Thursday to qualify for the  ATP Cup semifinals.

On Saturday, they overcame a loss by Félix Auger-Aliassime at the hands of Daniil Medvedev to eke out a win in the deciding doubles against Russia.

So Canada comes into Sunday’s final with some momentum. But Team Spain has marched through the week with barely a worrisome moment.

Pablo Carreño Busta vs Denis Shapovalov Odds

All Odds as of Jan. 8 at DraftKings.

Denis Shapovalov got the job done at No. 2 singles Saturday, but it wasn’t easy against underdog Roman Safiullin. He needed three sets and expended a lot of extra energy against a player who doesn’t have the same level of skill.

It was an uneven performance.

That level won’t be nearly enough against Carreño Busta, who has more or less owned him.

The only Shapovalov win came on clay, more than 2 1/2 years ago.

Carreño Busta does everything well, moves beautifully. And most importantly against a player like Shapovalov who is capable of great streaks of play, he’s able to keep his head above water as he waits for the level to drop.

Pablo Carreño Busta vs Denis Shapovalov Head-to-Head

Which, most often, it has.

Their last meeting at the 2020 US Open was a dramatic marathon. But in the end, the more mature and consistent player won.

Pablo Carreño Busta vs Denis Shapovalov Match History

The Spaniard is by far the toughest opponent Shapovalov will have faced this week.

Best Bet: Carreño Busta in three sets (+340)

Auger-Aliassime in With a Shot

Meanwhile, Roberto Bautista Agut is in as a slight favorite against Auger-Aliassime, who is 12 years younger and ranked higher.

The odds indicate most expect this to be a close one.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Félix Auger-Aliassime Odds

Nerves Factor Dependent on Situation

There are two possible scenarios.

The first is that Shapovalov loses to Carreño Busta in the first match. Auger-Aliassime would then have the pressure of winning to keep hopes alive.

The other is the pressure of being in a position to clinch the title.

The latter is easier, in a sense. Because the worst case is that the two Canadians could still team up and win the doubles – just as they did Saturday against the (previously) unbeaten Russian team of Medvedev and Safiullin after Auger-Aliassime’s loss.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Félix Auger-Aliassime

FAA With Winning Record

Auger-Aliassime leads the head-to-head 2-1. But the loss came in a similar type of team situation, in the finals of the 2019 Davis Cup.

That time, Bautista and Spain were the home favorites.

The 21-year-old Canadian posted a huge win over Bautista Agut at the US Open last summer. He almost blew a two-sets-to-love lead. But in the end he was able to turn the momentum around.

He knows he can beat Bautista Agut. Now all he has to do is quickly turn the page on the desultory loss to Medvedev, and get that positive muscle memory back.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Félix Auger-Aliassime Match History

Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+130)