Spain vs Poland Odds & Picks – ATP Cup Semifinals

• Spain is the favorite against Poland in the first ATP Cup semifinal tie in Sydney, Australia Friday
• The match will begin at 5:30 pm in Australia (1:30 am ET)
• All four singles players are undefeated in the round-robin portion. Read on for analysis and picks
  

Something will have to give in Friday’s ATP Cup semifinal between Spain and Poland.

Because all four singles players – Pablo Carreño Busta and Roberto Bautista Agut for Spain, Hubert Hurkacz and the surprising Kamil Majchrzak for Poland – have yet to lose a match in three round-robin ties.

In fact, they’ve combined for the loss of only one set. And that came from the highest-ranked of them all, Hurkacz, against Georgia.

Spain Expected in Final Four

Even without Rafael Nadal, Spain had a strong team with some depth. So it’s not surprising they would be in the semifinals.

Only Italy (with two top 10 players) and Germany with Alexander Zverev had better odds before the event began.

Pablo Carreño Busta vs Kamil Majchrzak Odds

Odds as of Jan. 6 at Barstool Sportsbook

But they had a friendly pool, too.  They swept Chile. They swept Norway (which didn’t have the depth beyond top player Casper Ruud).

And  then, they faced a Serbia that did not have Novak Djokovic.

The only match they lost was their final round-robin doubles, after all had been decided.

Team Spain and Team Poland claimed their spots in the final four 👏

Catch up on all the Day 5️⃣ action 👇 pic.twitter.com/3uNovqPq2O

— ATPCup (@ATPCup) January 5, 2022

First Meeting for Carreño Busta and Majchrzak

The experienced Carreño Busta has never played Majchrzak, who was inside the top 100 (barely) in 2019 but currently stands at No. 117.

He may even have to play the qualifying at the Australian Open next week. (Although, as of Friday in Australia, he’s the next one in when someone withdraws, so he stands a pretty good chance of squeezing in).

Pablo Carreño Busta vs Kamil Majchrzak Head-to-Head

Best Bet: Carreño Busta in two sets (-139)

Odds Slightly Favor the Spaniard

Dead even overnight in Australia,  Bautista Agut pulled ahead as the slight favorite over the higher-ranked Hurkacz early Friday morning.

But the match, which likely will have Poland needing to win to stay alive in the tie, is predicted to be very close. So it’s tough to find value.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds

Big Serve vs Dogged Determination

The challenge Hurkacz has with a player like Bautista Agut is that he ends up being the one whose movement is exposed.

Bautista Agut, a smaller man, moves beautifully. And he’s so consistent that he can keep digging until he finds that one shot that will then have his opponent on the run.

The Spaniard also has an excellent service return, which helps neutralize one of Hurkacz’s best weapons.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hubert Hurkacz

Bautista Agut Undefeated

The 33-year-old, who comes into the season ranked No. 19, didn’t lose a set in wins over Chilean No. 1 Cristian Garin, world No. 8 Casper Ruud and top Serb Dusan Lajovic, ranked No. 33.

But Hurkacz is a different story entirely. Because of late no-shows by the opposing No. 1s, he’s had an easy roll.

Hurkacz faced Aristotelis Thanos (ranked No. 1078) instead of Stefanos Tsitsipas and dropped three games.

Then he played Alexandre Metreveli instead of top Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili. He dropped the first set in a tiebreak, but still prevailed.

The 24-year-old then had a surprisingly easy time against the usually dogged Diego Schwartzman of Argentina.

So he’s run the gamut in three matches. But his biggest problem Friday will be that he’s winless against Bautista Agut in their two previous meetings.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hubert Hurkacz Match History

Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+130)