Taylor Fritz vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Odds & Prediction – Indian Wells Men’s Singles Semifinals
- No. 29 seed Nikoloz Basilashvili will face No. 31 Taylor Fritz in Saturday’s second Indian Wells semifinal
- It’s the first time all four finalists in a Masters 1000 tournament have been outside the top 25
- Read on as we break down the matchup and make a pick.
The last month of the tennis season typically has been a time with the top players are pretty worn out.
Lower-ranked players capitalize on that to post impressive, if surprising, results.
Add to that that the BNP Paribas Open – one of the biggest tournaments of the year – is being held, unusually, in October.
And given Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Dominic Thiem and others are absent, you have this: No. 36 Nikoloz Basilashvili vs No. 39 Taylor Fritz in the semifinals.
Taylor Fritz vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [31] Taylor Fritz (USA) | -2.5 (-125) | -185 | O 22.5 (-115) |
| [29] Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) | +2.5 (-115) | +140 | U 22.5 (-120) |
Odds as of Oct. 15 at DraftKings.
Fritz Comes Back From the Brink
Born and raised not far away, Taylor Fritz used to roam the grounds at Indian Wells with his pals as a kid.
On Saturday, he’ll play the biggest match of his life there. And he’ll be there because No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev absolutely let him off the hook in their quarterfinal Friday.
Zverev had two match points – one on Fritz’s serve, the second on his own. On that second one, he double-faulted.
Given a lifeline, Fritz pulled out arguably some of the most dominant tennis of his career to pull out the biggest win of his career: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (3).
“This is the farthest I’ve ever been in a big tournament. It’s easily the best win of my life, against a really tough opponent on arguably the biggest match I could possibly play. So it’s great,” Fritz said when it was done.
This is Fritz’s sixth trip to his “home” event. Only once before had he gone past the third round.
Now he has a legitimate shot at a huge title.
Taylor Fritz vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Head-to-Head
| 23 (Oct. 28, 1997) | Age | 29 (Feb. 23, 1992) |
| Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif. | Birthplace | Tbilisi, Georgia |
| 6-4 | Height | 6-1 |
| 1 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 5 |
| No. 24 (March 2, 2020) | Career High Ranking | No. 16 (May 27, 2019) |
| No. 39 | Current Ranking | No. 36 |
| $4,930,549 | Career Prize Money | $6,721,491 |
| 26-18 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 31-24 |
| 2 | Career Head-to-Head | 1 |
Basilashvili Shocks Tsitsipas
With a pedestrian 27-24 record coming in – only two players in the top 100, including teenager Holger Rune, have played more in 2021 – the Georgian probably wasn’t on anyone’s list coming in.
But he’s a player who despite his relatively modest stature by today’s standards is capable of taking over any match he plays with sheer firepower.
If he’s feeling it that day, or that week.
That happened when he won in both Doha and Munich this season; Basilashvili lost just two sets in 10 matches to earn those two ATP 250 titles.
On Friday against an under-the-weather Tsitsipas, Basilashvili had one of those days. And it was just good enough.
Taylor Fritz vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Dubai (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (4) | Fritz |
| 2021 | Doha (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (3), 6-1 | Basilashvili |
| 2017 | Chengdu (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 | Fritz |
Power vs Power in Upset Special
These two know each other’s game well enough from back-to-back matches in the Middle East earlier this year.
They also practiced together at Indian Wells, just prior to the tournament.
The way they’re likely to pulverize the ball– which already fluffs up quickly – the outcome will on hinge on who can do that and keep the ball inside the lines more often.
Both played about the same amount of time Friday. Neither will have a huge advantage on rest. And both will be coming off one of the biggest victories of their career, and playing their first career Masters 1000 semifinal.
The big difference Friday was that Basilashvili admitted he got really tight, very emotional, when it came time to close out the match against Tsitsipas (he managed, anyway).
But once Fritz fought off the match points, he looked more and more confident. That’s a feeling needs to bring into this semifinal.
June 2021: Undergoes knee surgery
October 2021: Reaches a first Masters 1000 semi-final
Resilience 💪 @Taylor_Fritz97 pic.twitter.com/MBc3BC9A26
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 16, 2021
Fritz’s advantage on serve will be even more pronounced on the slow court. And the American also will have the support of the home crowd which, even if smaller than during the tournament’s usual slot in March, will be fully for him.
It might well be enough to tip the balance in his favor.
Best Bet: Fritz in Three sets (+300)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
