Tommy Paul vs Denis Shapovalov Odds & Prediction – ATP Stockholm Open Final

• Looking for his second ATP title, Denis Shapovalov faces unseeded Tommy Paul in the Stockholm final
  
• Shapovalov is defending champion from the last time the tourney was played in 2019.
  
• This is Paul’s first career ATP singles final — read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction
  

At 24, Tommy Paul was the old geezer among the four semifinalists (two American, two Canadian) at the Stockholm Open this week.

And he was the only one who had not at least reached an ATP Tour singles final.

Until Friday, when he joined the club.

On Saturday, he’ll face Denis Shapovalov, who won the Stockholm Open two years ago. And given the tournament was not held in 2020 because of the pandemic, he’s the de-facto defending champion.

Tommy Paul vs Denis Shapovalov Odds

Odds as of Nov. 12 at DraftKings

Shapovalov Wins the All-Canadian Semi

The on-court battles between longtime friends Denis Shapovalov and Félix Auger-Aliassime have always had a flavor all their own.

But in 2021, Auger-Aliassime had the better of his older countryman, twice. The first was a straight-sets dismissal in the third round of the Australian Open.

A few months later, on clay in Barcelona, Shapovalov won just five games.

But on Friday, Shapovalov came out firing and fiery. A slow start in the quarterfinals against Arthur Rinderknech the previous day led to an early deficit and a match he barely squeaked out. He corrected that error.

Auger-Aliassime stayed the course and waited for the wave to crest. He broke, then was broken back. And it was all even until 5-5 in the second set.

At that point, Shapovalov injected another dose of energy, and lifted his level to a place Auger-Aliassime couldn’t match on the day in a 6-4, 7-5 victory.

Paul vs Shapovalov Head-to-Head

Paul on the Come-Up

Paul was a late bloomer compared to the other three, whom he called phenoms.

He was 18 when he won the junior French Open title in Paris. And it was his first tennis tournament in Europe – ever. He finished off his junior career by losing to another American, Taylor Fritz, in the junior US Open final and got to No. 3 in the rankings.

Friends first 🤗@TommyPaul1 makes his first career final after fighting back from a set and a break down and defeating Tiafoe 5-7 7-6 6-4!#StockholmOpen pic.twitter.com/IFPMPciWsE

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 12, 2021

His pro career has been as laid-back as the man himself. He’s struggled with injury. And perhaps he hadn’t quite had the pedal to the metal as much as he clearly has in the last six months.

Paul is 14-8 since Wimbledon, and has rarely lost to anyone but a top-level player in the last six months.

One Volley Turned the Tide

Frances Tiafoe looked on his way to a straight-sets win when he served for the match Friday. But he was broken. And then, at 3-3 in the second-set tiebreak, Paul decided on a serve-volley play that resulted in a winning volley off his toes that would have made former Stockholm Open champion and Swede Stefan Edberg proud.

Relatable 😂@FTiafoe #StockholmOpen pic.twitter.com/IhU8rhqnZp

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 12, 2021

It brought a relatable reaction from Tiafoe. And it completely changed the momentum. Paul took the tiebreak, and the match, 5-7, 7-6 (5), 6-4.

Shapovalov Title Defense, vs Paul’s Defense

The indoor court in Stockholm is medium-fast, which suit Shapovalov’s winner-generating game. But the balls they are using are slow and heavy, which Paul says he really likes.

But while the American is a shotmaker in his own right, his biggest assets are his speed and retrieval skills.

Shapovalov hits the ball so hard and so close to the lines when he’s firing, even Paul’s jets couldn’t track enough of the missiles down.

Denis Shapovalov improves to 3-12 in ATP SFs 😎 pic.twitter.com/wW2jsp4IU4

— Vansh (@vanshv2k) November 12, 2021

The question, then, becomes two-fold.

Will Paul have first-time finalist nerves?

And will Shapovalov be able to handle defending his first title, navigate the ebbs and flows in his own game, and deal with being the favorite?

This only the Canadian’s third ATP Tour final. And he’s won one of his first two. And it was on the same court.

Either scenario, or both, could occur. But Shapovalov often doesn’t make it easy on himself against quality opponents.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+150); over 22.5 games (+105)