NCAAF Betting – (11) Ole Miss, (4) FSU Face Wk 1 Crucible

(11) Ole Miss Rebels at (4) Florida State Seminoles (-4.5, 58 o/u)

One team with grand ambitions for the 2016 season is going to see its national title hopes take a big hit in Week 1 as the no. 11 Ole Miss Rebels (10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) take on the no. 4 Florida State Seminoles (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) at Camping World Stadium in Orlando on Monday (Sep. 5, 8:00 PM Eastern).

Ole Miss was the lone team to hand last year’s national champion Alabama a loss in 2015, shocking the Tide 43-37 in Tuscaloosa. But letdowns against Florida (38-10, road), Memphis (37-24, road), and Arkansas (53-52 OT, home) derailed the season.

Now the team has to replace three first-round NFL draft picks, including pass rusher Robert Nkemdiche and receiver Laquon Treadwell.

Much of the pressure to replace Treadwell – and second-leading receiver Cody Core – will fall on Washington transfer Damore’ea Stringfellow. In his first season with the Rebels, Stringfellow had a respectable 36 catches for 503 yards and five majors. He’ll be joined by senior tight end Evan Engram (464 yards, two TDs) to give Chad Kelly some decent targets to work with.

Kelly, arguably the best QB in the SEC, is coming off an impressive season throwing the ball (4,042 passing yards, 31 TDs, 13 INTs). He was no slouch on the ground, as well, adding 500 rushing yards (second on the team) and ten more touchdowns.

Without Treadwell and Core, coach Hugh Freeze will likely employ a more balanced attack. (Ole Miss finished tenth in the nation in passing last year, averaging 333.7 YPG.)

In the run game, Kelly should get a decent amount of help from his backfield. While leading rusher Jaylen Walton is gone, RBs Akeem Judd (421 rushing yards, three TDs) and Jordan Wilkins (379 yards, four TDs) are ready to assume the workload. The Rebels might not match their 40.4 points per game average from last season, but they should still field a very dangerous offense.

On defense, junior end Marquis Haynes, who recorded ten sacks last year, will ease the pain of losing Nkemdiche, while the return of tackle Issac Gross will help against the run.

Stuffing the Seminoles’ run-game would be quite the accomplishment, though. The Noles’ bell-cow, Dalvin Cook, is in the Heisman conversation and coming off a record-setting season. He set school records for rushing yards (1,691) and all-purpose yards (1,935) in 2015, averaging nearly 7.5 yards per carry.

Cook will have the luxury of running behind an experienced offensive line, which will feature seven players with at least some starting experience.

That strong o-line will be a comfort to starting QB Deondre Francois, as well, as the redshirt freshman gets his feet wet at the next level.

On D, FSU will get a boost from the return of DeMarcus Walker. The dynamic end flirted with entering the NFL Draft, but opted to return to Tallahassee for his senior season. He’ll be looking to improve upon his 10.5 sacks from a year ago and boost his 2017 draft stock.

Florida State is coming off a successful 2015, all things considered. It was thought to be a rebuilding year, being the first season after Jameis Winston moved on. But the team lost just two games in the regular season: one uber-tight road battle with then-no. 1 Clemson (23-13) and a one-score game at Georgia Tech (22-16).

Their bowl game upset at the hands of Houston (38-24) left a sour taste heading into the offseason, but shouldn’t diminish what head coach Jimbo Fisher was able to do.

Both teams were great bets against the spread last year and there are trends that lean both ways for Monday’s game: Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog; FSU is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. The Noles haven’t been good against the number in neutral site games (0-5 ATS in the last five), but this is a de facto home game for them.

The Rebels have the obvious edge at QB, but I see this game being won in the trenches. I like the FSU o-line to bully Ole Miss front-seven, letting Cook run wild and leading FSU to a cover.

Pick: Florida State (-4.5). 

Photo credit: Jayron32 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0] via Wikimedia Commons.