2018 NFL Win Totals: Value on the Vikings’ OVER?
- Despite winning 13 games last year, the Minnesota Vikings’ 2018 win total is at just 10.0.
- The reigning NFC North champs are sure to get a stiff test from Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.
- But the Vikes have one of the deepest rosters in the league and could be even better than last season.
Continuing our look at the best win total bets for the 2018 NFL season, today the Minnesota Vikings and shiny new quarterback Kirk Cousins are in the spotlight.
All the major sportsbooks have the Vikings over/under at 10.0 wins, though the odds are a little different from site to site.
Minnesota Vikings: Over 10.0 Wins
| Team | Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | 2017 Record | Avg. Wins Last 3 Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 10.0 (-130o/+100u) | 10.0 (-120o/+100u) | 10.0 (-125o/-105u) | 13-3 | 10.7 |
As with the 2018 Bengals win total, the over is the play when it comes to the Vikes.
1. The Opening Point Spreads Predict an 11-5 Record
| Week | Opponent | Opening Spread | Est. Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs 49ers | -4.5 | 65.9% |
| 2 | @ Packers | +2.5 | 43.7% |
| 3 | vs Bills | -10.0 | 81.3% |
| 4 | @ Rams | +3.0 | 40.4% |
| 5 | @ Eagles | +3.5 | 37.2% |
| 6 | vs Cardinals | -10.5 | 83.1% |
| 7 | @ Jets | -4.0 | 64.4% |
| 8 | vs Saints | -4.0 | 64.4% |
| 9 | vs Lions | -7.0 | 78.5% |
| 10 | BYE | ||
| 11 | @ Bears | -3.0 | 59.6% |
| 12 | vs Packers | -3.0 | 59.6% |
| 13 | @ Patriots | +4.5 | 34.1% |
| 14 | @ Seahawks | -2.0 | 55.1% |
| 15 | vs Dolphins | -10.0 | 81.3% |
| 16 | @ Lions | -6.5 | 71.4% |
| 17 | vs Bears | no line |
On average, Minnesota is a -3.4-point favorite for the first 15 games of the season, with a Week 17 home game against the Bears excluded, and they are at least 59.6% favorites in ten of their games.
If there wasn’t the possibility of starters being rested in Week 17, the Vikings would be about a 9.0-point favorite versus Chicago, given that they are a 3.0-point favorite in the Windy City in Week 11 and home-field advantage tends to swing the line about six points.
If the Vikings already have the division sewn up by Week 17 and are comfortable resting their stars, it’s safe to assume that they have already at least pushed on their 10-win total.
2. The Defense Will Be Great Again
The defense finished first in scoring last year (15.8 PPG) and returns all its key pieces while adding CB Mike Hughes (30th overall) and DE Jalyn Holmes (102nd overall) in the draft, plus former Pro Bowl DT Sheldon Richardson in free agency.
They weren’t reliant on turnovers — which tend to regress to the mean from year to year — either, generating just 19 takeaways (T23rd) and finishing only +5 (T12th) in turnover differential.
Barring injury, this group will be dominant in 2018.
“Barring injury” is a big caveat, though. Minnesota had tremendous injury luck last year, especially on defense. Virtually every impact player on that side of the ball played all 16 games, including LB Anthony Barr, DE Danielle Hunter, DT Linval Joseph, LB Eric Kendricks, CB Xavier Rhodes, FS Harrison Smith, and CB Trae Waynes, while stud edge rusher Everson Griffen missed just one game.
Injury luck is another variable that often regresses to the mean over the long term. That said, more and more, people are recognizing that staying healthy is a sort of skill of its own, and the Viking defense might just have it.
3. The Offense Could Be Even Better
The offense finished top-five in efficiency last year and now replaces Case Keenum with Kirk Cousins, a more accurate passer with a better pedigree. Cousins will be working with arguably the best WR tandem in the league in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, who combined for 2,125 yards last year.
Running back Jerick McKinnon (51 catches, 421 receiving yards) will certainly be missed, especially as a checkdown option, but Cousins should have the services of dynamic second-year RB Dalvin Cook instead.
Cook was outstanding during the first four weeks last year before tearing his ACL, racking up 354 rushing yards (88.5 YPG) at a 4.8 YPC clip, while adding another 90 receiving yards on 11 catches. He and the bruising Latavius Murray will give Minnesota a solid one-two punch in the backfield.
The offensive line improved from 2016 to 2017. The unit finished 19th in both run blocking and pass blocking according to FootballOutsiders, which doesn’t sound great, but was better than the 30th/17th from the year prior. All five starters are back and second-round OT Brian O’Neill joins the fray.
Offensive lines almost always improve the longer they remain intact — the individual linemen need time to learn how to play together as a cohesive unit — so there is certainly reason to think that the Vikes will be better in the trenches.
4. The Division Will Be Stronger, But Not That Strong
The Vikings had to contend with exactly zero Aaron Rodgers passes last year, going 2-0 against the Brett Hundley-led Packers. They pulled away for a 23-10 win in the Twin Cities and then pitched a 16-0 shutout at Lambeau in Week 16.
That’s not going to happen again this year. Rodgers is back, and it’s safe to assume the Packers will be really good.
The Bears are being pegged as a team that can make the leap, with some projecting Mitch Trubisky to make a Jared Goff-like improvements from his first to second year. Let’s slow our roll on that one. Sean McVay isn’t running the Bears offense and Todd Gurley isn’t leading the Bears backfield. Chicago’s win total is at 6.5 because sportsbooks recognize that this team is still intensely flawed, especially on offense.
The Vikings went 2-0 versus Chicago last year, holding them to a combined 475 yards of total offense and just 27 points. Expect more defensive domination.
The Lions are going to be pretty similar to last year and are also pegged as a sub-.500 team (7.0-7.5 win total, depending on the site). The Vikes split with Detroit last year because the offense put in its worst performance of the year in a Week 4 home loss (14-7). Note that Dalvin Cook was injured in the middle of that game, though, and the offense looked lost without him, something that was quickly remedied when McKinnon was integrated into the first-team offense at practice the next week.
All in all, the strength of the division shouldn’t scare you away from betting the over.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
