5 Week 3 NFL Props to Bet: Welcome back, Carson Wentz
- Carson Wentz returns to the field for the Eagles, and has a number of props surrounding his performance
- Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes have had electric starts to the season; do they continue?
- The Giants have struggled to score this season and it won’t get much better against the Texans
This picture will never….NEVER…get old:
Harvard Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. The Ryan Fitzpatrick She Told You Not To Worry About pic.twitter.com/d6GkapuBUI
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) September 16, 2018
Ryan Fitzpatrick is dripping swagger right now, and with good reason.
He’s red hot, and so is Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes.
While the two continue to put up ridiculous yardage and touchdown totals, another elite QB is ready to return to the field.
Earlier this week the Eagles announced that Carson Wentz will be back under center against the Colts. How will Wentz look in his return?
That’s where we start in our Week 3 props.
Prop #1: How many TDs will Carson Wentz through in Week 3?
| Total Passing TDs for Carson Wentz in Week 3 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2 Passing TDs | +110 |
| Under 2 Passing TDs | -250 |
Wentz had the Eagles offense humming all last season. But can he step right in and pick up where he left off?
It could be difficult.
In the Eagles’ first two games this year, Nick Foles threw one touchdown pass. That came in Week 2 against Tampa Bay.
Eagles announce that Carson Wentz has been cleared for contact, will start vs. Colts pic.twitter.com/1i1f4COviF
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 17, 2018
They’re not lighting things up through the air, averaging just 220 yards per game.
But Philly is facing a pass defense that hasn’t been able to generate a ton of pressure. The Colts have earned an overall grade of 62.0 from PFF through two weeks. They earned a 58.3 grade against the Redskins.
If that continues and Wentz will have a clean pocket. That means he’ll put up numbers. Philly will also have the emotional boost of having their dual threat quarterback back under center.
Indianapolis can be forced into turnovers too. Expect the Eagles defence to capitalize and get Wentz a couple of short fields to work with.
The Pick: Wentz drops three on the Colts (+110)
Prop #2: Can the Colts Pick Off Carson Wentz?
| How Many INT Will Carson Wentz Throw in Week 3? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 INT | -150 |
| Under 0.5 INT | +110 |
Now let’s see if Wentz can protect the ball.
Wentz played in 14 games last year and threw seven interceptions. While he never had more than one in a game, he started his season off with interceptions in Weeks 1 and 2.
Don’t expect things to go similarly this year.
Philly’s offense has also taken on a different look without Wentz and Alshon Jeffery. The Eagles are averaging 5.6 yards per play. A stark difference from last year’s 7.0.
“I and the whole offense, really this whole organization, always have high expectations. We expect to start fast, play fast, be clicking. So, I truly believe that’s a realistic expectation.” – Carson Wentz
The Colts lack of pressure will keep Wentz from making mistakes. The short passing game will also negate Indy’s top-ten coverage grade (77.4).
Expect the conservative game plan to continue as Wentz gets back into the flow of things.
The Pick: Wentz is flawless in his 2018 debut (+110)
Prop #3: Can Mahomes and FitzMagic Continue to Dazzle in 2018?
| Who Will Throw 4+ TD Passes in Week 3? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Only Patrick Mahomes | +275 |
| Only Ryan Fitzpatrick | +400 |
| Neither | -200 |
| Both | +1400 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes are the best two QBs in the NFL. Just like everyone thought they would be.
The two have combined for 18 touchdowns and 1,401 yards through two weeks. Both have thrown at least four TDs each week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes Statistical Comparison
| Quarterback | Completion % | Yards | TD/INT | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB | 78.7% | 819 | 8/1 | 151.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | 69.1 | 582 | 10/0 | 143.3 |
So does the streak continue?
The Chiefs have the 49ers and the Bucs have the Steelers.
Pittsburgh was whipped around by Mahomes in Week 2. They’ve surrendered a league-worst seven passing TDs, but six of those came in Week 2. They also could be facing a season-defining game amidst plenty of turmoil.
Meanwhile in Tampa…
The Notorious Ryan Fitzpatrick pic.twitter.com/uvtW6PbmXS
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) September 16, 2018
San Fran has given up their fair share of touchdowns too. They’ve kept proven passers Matt Stafford (3 TDs) and Kirk Cousins (2 TDs) under four though.
Throwing four TDs in three-straight games is no easy feat. It’d be even more unbelievable if two completed the hat-trick.
Pittsburgh is in prove-it mode, but FitzMagic continues. He hangs another four on Monday night. Mahomes comes up just short, finishing his day with three.
The Pick: Fitz-magic out-duels Mahomes with four TDs (+400)
Prop #4: Cookie Monster? Michael Thomas is the Target Monster
| How many Catches Will Michael Thomas Have in Week 3? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 9.5 catches | +145 |
| Under 9.5 catches | -190 |
Michael Thomas has been a machine so far.
After hauling in 16 balls in Week 1 against the Bucs, he added another 12 against Cleveland in Week 2. Despite the massive output, Vegas is still thinking he ends up with nine or fewer catches against the Falcons.
Thomas has typically threatened the nine catch mark on a game-by- game basis. He only had one double-digit effort last year, but it came in Week 14 against Atlanta. He also had two eight catch games and two nine catch games.
Michael Thomas 2018 Statistics
| Week | Catches/Targets | Yards | TD | Catch % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 vs TB | 78.7% | 180 | 1 | 94.1 |
| Week 2 vs CLE | /12/13 | 89 | 2 | 92.3 |
The Saints also don’t pay much attention to their other targets.
In Week 1, Thomas caught 57% of Drew Brees’ completions to receivers and tight ends. It was 55% in Week 2.
The Falcons gave up eight catches to Nelson Agholor and seven to Devin Funchess.
Michael Thomas eats once again.
The Pick: Michael Thomas goes OVER 9.5 catches (+145)
Prop #5: When will the Giants score in the first half?
| Will the Giants Score a TD Before Halftime? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -200 |
| No | +150 |
The New York Giants have a grand total of two touchdowns. One per game. Both coming in the fourth quarter.
So can the Giants buck the trend and get early touchdown? Not likely.
| Will the Giants Score a TD Before the fourth quarter? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -400 |
| No | +250 |
Houston gave up three touchdowns to Tom Brady in the first half of Week 1. The second half? Two field goals.
Against the Titans, they technically gave up two passing TDs. One of them came on a fake punt though. Excluding that, they’ve given up two offensive touchdowns in six quarters.
Eli Manning has been efficient early, but it hasn’t yielded results.
https://twitter.com/Giants/status/1042829492346085376
His completion percentage drops from 84 to 59 between the first and second half. He’s gained six first downs in the first half, and 13 in the second. His lone TD has come in the second too.
Saquon Barkley’s splits are drastic too. Because defenses have backed off in the second half, Barkley’s YPC goes from 2.2 in the first to 6.4 in the second. His yards per reception double, going from 4.0 to 8.8.
All this spells out a slow first half for the Giants against the Texans. Depending on how bold you’re feeling, you can take the third quarter prop. We’ll go conservative though and just stay with the first half.
The Pick: The Giants DON’T score a TD before halftime (+150)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
