Cale Makar Now Odds-On Favorite to Win 2020 Calder at -275; Quinn Hughes (+240) the Only Serious Challenger

• Cale Makar is averaging nearly a point-per-game and running away in the Calder race
• Quinn Hughes, another defenseman, is the closest player to catching him
• Only two of the past 15 winners have been defensemen – check our preview for a betting prediction

The NHL season is at its halfway mark, which means several storylines (playoffs, trades) are starting to heat up.

But there’s one storyline that has actually cooled quite a bit: the race for the Calder Trophy, the NHL’s rookie of the year award, which has one distinct frontrunner and several others lagging behind.

Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar is the frontrunner of the 2020 Calder Trophy odds, and off to a blistering scoring pace that has been hugely impactful for his team.

Odds taken Jan. 4

Makar’s substantial lead begs the question: can anyone catch him? Right now, it appears that Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes has the best shot (note: Victor Olofsson will miss five-to-six weeks with an injury, which was announced Friday).

The battle of Makar vs. Hughes is what we’ll explore here.

Numbers Game

The easiest way to understand Makar’s lead in the Calder race is to look at some basic NHL stats. In 33 games this year, Makar has nine goals, 31 points, a plus-5 rating, 70 shots on goal and 20:27 average time on ice (ATOI).

Cale Makar of the @Avalanche is the first defenseman to record his first 30 career regular-season points in 33 games or fewer since Detroit’s Nicklas Lidstrom in 1991-92 (33 GP). #NHLStats pic.twitter.com/Lpjcgyw3ta

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) January 3, 2020

Among NHL rookies, he ranks second in points, tied-third in goals, second in assists, tied-seventh in shots and third in ATOI.

Hughes has a respectable stat line himself, but it doesn’t compare. He has four goals and 29 points in 40 games, along with a minus-6 rating, 70 shots and 21:15 ATOI.

Reporter: "Does Quinn Hughes deserve to be in the All-Star Game?"@BoHorvat: "Absolutely. He's playing unbelievable for us right now. He deserves to be there."

🗳🤗🐻 https://t.co/GIztNRRBh0 pic.twitter.com/xY1l4W9D9F

— Vancouver Canucks (@Canucks) January 2, 2020

Yes, those point totals are nearly identical. But Makar has more points in fewer games and more than twice as many goals as Hughes — those factors matter.

No Playoffs Necessary

As it turns out, the Avalanche and Canucks are both nestled into the playoff picture right now (Colorado is in second place in the Central Division, five points clear of ninth place; Vancouver is in third in the Pacific Division, one point clear of ninth place).

Cale Makar's game-winning goal is a thing of beauty.#GoAvsGo https://t.co/kmxSdGSP8l

— x – Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) January 3, 2020

Recent history has shown, however, playoff appearances are not compulsory for Calder winners.

Six of the past nine Calder recipients were on teams that missed the playoffs, including Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson last season. With that said, if Makar makes the playoffs and Hughes doesn’t (or vice versa), that could be used as a sort of tie-breaker.

Value Added

Numbers tell part of the story, but context is always important when considering awards candidates. And contextually, Makar has been extremely valuable to the Avalanche.

He is second on the team in scoring (behind MVP contender Nathan MacKinnon), helping to prop up a team that has seen two of its top-line forwards — Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen — miss 16 games apiece due to injury.

Cale Makar's (@Cmakar16) out here playing this game on rookie mode. pic.twitter.com/d0xaPJo2G8

— NHL (@NHL) November 22, 2019

Hughes is plenty valuable as well, as the Canucks’ sixth-leading scorer and third-highest ATOI. Still, he has more support around him.

Decision Time

Makar’s biggest enemy is the unknown. If he misses significant time due to injury, it’s feasible that Hughes or some dark horse could make up the gap.

For reference, Makar is on track to play as many as 74 games. Pettersson played 71 games last year, the fewest by a Calder-winning skater since 1991-92 (excluding a pair of lockout-shortened seasons).

Unless an injury occurs, you should feel safe locking in Makar based on his pure numbers and team impact.

Pick: Cale Maker (-275)