2019 College World Series Odds: Vanderbilt Listed as Favorite; Arkansas, UCLA & Miss St Round out Top 4 Contenders
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The NCAA Super Regionals are taking place, followed by the College World Series
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Despite sitting second in the Division 1 rankings, Vanderbilt owns better odds than UCLA
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Is there anyone worth betting outside of the top five favorites?
While the NCAA’s most famous tournament is March Madness, the College World Series isn’t far behind. It’s a time of year when crazy comebacks, memorable walk-offs, and stunning moments reign supreme.
And typically it’s an underdog’s dream.
According to Sports Illustrated, just one first overall seed has stood victorious at the end in the past 20 years. That was Miami all the way back in 1999.
UCLA enters the tournament as this year’s number one, but aren’t the favorite to win it all.
2019 College World Series Odds
School | NCAA Rank | College World Series Odds |
---|---|---|
Vanderbilt | 2 | +400 |
Arkansas | 5 | +500 |
UCLA | 1 | +500 |
Mississippi State | 3 | +600 |
LSU | 12 | +1000 |
Louisville | 11 | +1200 |
Texas Tech | 8 | +1200 |
North Carolina | 15 | +1400 |
Ole Miss | 14 | +1400 |
East Carolina | 10 | +2000 |
Oklahoma ST | 9 | +2000 |
Stanford | 4 | +2000 |
Auburn | N/A | +2500 |
Florida ST | N/A | +2500 |
Duke | N/A | +5000 |
Michigan | N/A | +5000 |
*Odds taken 06/06/2019
Right off the bat, Stanford stands out. The fourth-ranked team in the country at +2000 could be a nice pickup. Their only issue is that they’re up against Mississippi State in their Super Regional.
College baseball will absolutely destroy you pic.twitter.com/8KrZLmHkMV
— Eric Single (@Eric_Single) June 2, 2019
Another team that’s interesting? Eighth-ranked Texas Tech at +1200. They lead a crowded middle class that just needs a few things to break the right way.
But when it comes down to it, just like in March Madness, all eyes are on the top seeds.
Comparing the Four Favorites
School | Record | Batting Average | Home Runs | ERA | WHIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vanderbilt | 49-10 | .319 | 82 | 3.80 | 1.29 |
Arkansas | 41-17 | .299 | 78 | 3.96 | 1.27 |
UCLA | 47-8 | .294 | 56 | 2.59 | 1.06 |
Mississippi State | 46-13 | .316 | 60 | 3.59 | 1.22 |
*Records do not include Regionals
Vanderbilt Has Earned Title of Favorite for College World Series
Despite being ranked second in the country, Vanderbilt had the best pre-regional record at 49-10. They were followed closely by 47-8 UCLA.
Vanderbilt’s offense is led by JJ Bleday, the slugging outfielder who just went fourth overall to the Miami Marlins.
Bleday hit an NCAA-leading 26 home runs, but finished 14th in RBI with 67. He’s insulated by Austin Martin, whose .414 average was fourth in the country.
Welcome to the club!
Check out some highlights of Vanderbilt OF JJ Bleday, whom the @Marlins selected with the fourth overall pick in the #MLBDraft tonight!
(Video courtesy of MLB Network)#JuntosMiami #OurColores pic.twitter.com/84ukU5t8cm
— FOX Sports Marlins (@FOXMarlins) June 3, 2019
Pitching-wise, sophomore Mason Hickman finished 38th in the country with a 2.20 ERA. He also mixed in a 0.95 WHIP.
The Blue Devils will be in tough against Vanderbilt, and from there the Commodores will be formidable.
Dominant Pitching Gives UCLA Edge at College World Series
While they don’t bring a ton of power to the plate, UCLA can get it done with contact and standout pitching.
They had some trouble with Loyola Marymount, seeing their 11-game win streak snapped in the regionals, but played much better over their final three games.
Jack Ralston (Hart) and Ryan Garcia (La Salle) are a combined 20-0 as starting pitchers for UCLA. Nate Hadley (Loyola) is 8-1.
— eric sondheimer (@latsondheimer) May 26, 2019
It looks like that loss was a blip on the radar. Between Ryan Garcia and Jack Ralston, neither starter has lost this season (20-0), and as a team, UCLA has dropped back-to-back games just once.
That was at the beginning of March.
Ryan Garcia and Jack Ralston Statistical Comparison
76.0 | Innings Pitched | 89.0 |
9 | Wins | 11 |
1.42 | ERA | 2.43 |
0.86 | WHIP | 1.10 |
101 | Strikeouts | 97 |
Garcia has been dominant in his career at UCLA, going 19-1 in three seasons. That track record led him to being a second round pick of the Texas Rangers.
Pac-12 players go No. 1 and No. 3 in MLB draft. How good does that make UCLA pitchers Ryan Garcia and Jack Ralston? Both more than held their own.
— eric sondheimer (@latsondheimer) June 3, 2019
Ralston, meanwhile, slipped all the way to the seventh round where the St. Louis Cardinals scooped him up. He finished last year with a 6.44 ERA and a 2.21 WHIP, but definitely acquitted himself well in year two.
What About Arkansas and Mississippi State in the College World Series?
Arkansas comes into this year’s tournament looking for redemption.
After all, a 2018 that looked like it was about to end in promise, essentially ended like this:
Arkansas has the offense to return to the final, as they finished within or just outside the top 20 in most major categories.
In terms of arms, it falls to fourth-year starter Isaiah Campbell. Campbell went 10-1 this season, pairing it with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.
Isaiah Campbell went 10-1 this season, pairing it with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, but Arkansas’ team ERA was 49th in the country.
It speaks to their depth, or lack thereof, that Arkansas’ team ERA was 49th in the country.
For Mississippi, what’s going on with JT Ginn?
Major drama in Starkville as ace starter JT Ginn comes off the mound during his warmup pitches for the 4th inning
Southern keeping it tight, 2-1, and now are getting into the Bulldogs bullpen due to injury#Southern
— Brian Holland (@BHollandSports) May 31, 2019
Ginn wasn’t great to close out the SEC tournament, and now his health is in question with little information available.
That’s not to say he’s the only arm Mississippi State has. They had the 19th-best ERA in the country this year. But Ginn’s presence would mean big things for the Maroon and White’s odds.
Who to Bet for the 2019 NCAA College World Series
Vanderbilt is likely the most well-rounded team in the tournament. While it isn’t trendy to ride a favorite, if you think they’re a sure thing, +400 isn’t terrible.
If you’re after a bit of a dark horse, then try Texas Tech on for size. At +1200 they offer good value, and were top 20 in batting average (17th), On-base percentage (12th), and slugging percentage (20th).
But in tournaments where bats can go ice cold, I’ve always been a fan of pitching, and UCLA has the best staff. Sure there’s the curse of the number one seed, but that’s really just a narrative built off of luck.
With two dominant arms, it makes sense to bank on the Bruins.
Pick: UCLA (+500)