2021 John Deere Classic Sleepers & Longshot Picks

• The John Deere Classic tees off Thursday (July 8th) at TPC Deere Run, in Silvis, Illinois
• Kevin Streelman has four top-20 results in his past five starts and finished 7th here in 2019
• Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot bets

Let’s face it. Nobody is referring to this year’s field at the John Deere Classic as a star studded group. Golf’s elite are across the pond at the Scottish Open this week, which opens the door for the next tier of players to compete for the trophy at TPC Deere Run.

The tournament gets underway Thursday (July 8th), and while the field lacks big names there is still plenty of value to be found on the odds board.

2021 John Deere Classic Odds

Odds as of July 5th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

	Promo: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets + NBA No Sweat SGP	Learn More
	Promo: Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets	Learn More
	Promo: Up To $1,500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back	Learn More

Like last week in Detroit, this week’s tournament in Silvis, Illinois is going to be a birdie fest. The winning score has been at least -20 in nine of the past 11 years and there’s no reason to think it won’t take another ridiculously low total to win this year.

Approach play and putting are notoriously the two most important statistics at this event, and our first target just happens to be a world class ball striker.

Streel Is the Real Deal

Kevin Streelman ranks third in this field in ball striking, and fourth in strokes gained approach over the past 50 rounds. His outright odds are as short at +1900 at some online sportsbooks, so grabbing him at +2800 feels like a steal.

Kevin Streelman making moves👀 pic.twitter.com/7qxcurIayy

— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) May 23, 2021

The two-time winner on Tour missed the cut at the Travelers two weeks ago on the number, but his previous four starts were hot fire.

He posted four straight top-20 results, with two of those finishes taking place at Major Championships (PGA and U.S. Open). He’s gained strokes ball striking in 10 straight starts, and has been positive with the putter in five of his past six outings. He finished 7th at TPC Deere Run in 2019, and is long overdue for his third career victory.

Pick: Kevin Streelman to Win (+2800)

Feel the Power

Seamus Power needed a withdrawal just to get into last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, but he made the most of his opportunity. The Irishman finished 8th on the strength of some fine approach play and putting, and carded just a single bogey all week.

What a run of late by Seamus Power. Been living the Monday Q this year.
8 events ago he was outside the top 200, in danger of missing KFT finals, and looking for starts just to get to 15 for his pension.
Now 7 straight made cuts, two top-10's and a real chance at the playoffs

— Monday Q Info (@acaseofthegolf1) July 4, 2021

He’s now racked up four straight top-19 finishes. Not bad for a guy who was ranked outside the top-200 a few months ago. Power has gained 10.9 strokes with his irons over the past two weeks and ranks top-10 in this field in strokes gained approach, putting, ball striking, par-5 scoring and birdie or better percentage over the past 12 rounds.

Seamus Power Stats – Last 12 Rounds

Normally, we see his outright odds in the triple-digits and his top-10 odds much longer than they currently are, but his form is just too good to ignore.

Pick: Seamus Power Top-10 Finish (+350)

Top-20 Value Picks

1. Hank Lebioda (+275): Riding some of the best form in the field, Lebioda enters this week fresh off a 4th and 5th place finish in consecutive weeks. He ranks fifth in this field in birdie or better percentage over the past 12 rounds, and first in strokes gained putting. Lebioda trunk slammed in his only previous start at this event, but has made six straight cuts and finished inside the top-20 in four of those starts.
2. Scott Stallings (+335): Only four players in this field have gained more total strokes over the past five years at TPC Deere Run than Stallings. He’s posted three top-18 or better results since 2015, and had the irons cooking last week in Detroit. Stallings gained 5 strokes on approach, and was +2.1 on the greens en route to a 25th place finish. Given his recent form and course history, a top-20 result is well within his range of outcomes.
3. Roger Sloan (+400): The ball striking was off last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but he still scrambled his way to a 21st place finish. He’s posted a 10th and 18th place result in his only two starts here, and ranks 13th in total strokes gained at TPC Deere Run since 2015.