2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The 2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am from the historic Pebble Beach Golf Links begins on Thursday (Feb. 3rd)
• Justin Rose is trending towards a return to the winner’s circle, and finished third the last time he teed it up at Pebble Beach
• Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

It’s Pebble Beach week on the PGA Tour, as some of the game’s best players and their celebrity friends tee it up at one of the most iconic courses in the world.

The Pro-Am portion of this tournament is back after a COVID-break in 2021, meaning we’re in store for more Bill Murray hijinks, as well as an unavoidable Carlton dance or two.

Justin Rose came through for us in the Top-10 market last week at the Farmers, and we’re going right back to him this week as the first selection in our sleepers and longshots card.

2022 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds

Odds as of Jan. 31st at DraftKings , FanDuel and BetMGM.

Rose’s outright price is as low as +2000 around the online sports betting industry, but if you shop around you can find +2600 and even longer odds.

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Rose Rounding Back In to Form

The former number one player in the world has found something over his past five rounds. It started two Sundays ago at the American Express, when he gained his most strokes ball striking in a single round in over two years. Rose followed up that performance with four more solid rounds at the Farmers last week.

Few more shots like this in the final round @FarmersInsOpen tomorrow please! pic.twitter.com/HAvg7YoOpZ

— Justin ROSE (@JustinRose99) January 29, 2022

He carded three rounds of 69 or better, including a Sunday 68 to finish T6. Rose was actually in contention to tie the clubhouse lead on 18, but his second shot into the Par-5 finishing hole found the water.

The Englishman gained 5.4 strokes on approach last week, the most in a single tournament for him since the 2019 WGC St. Jude. Already one of the world’s premiere short game players, if he’s really solved the swing issues that plagued him for the past two seasons, it’s only a matter of time before he finds the winner’s circle again.

Nice being back in the mix! @FarmersInsOpen (-13 T6) #Team🌹 pic.twitter.com/pDLXlSHKcL

— Justin ROSE (@JustinRose99) January 30, 2022

The last time he showed up at Pebble Beach, he finished T3 at the 2019 U.S. Open.

Pick: Justin Rose to Win Outright (+2600)

Kuchar Ready to Contend Again

Rose isn’t the only player in the field who’s seen his world ranking plummet. Matt Kuchar, who’s game fell apart in the second half of 2020, is finally trending back up. He finished seventh last time out at the Sony, on the heels of his best tee-to-green performance in nearly two years.

Kuchar has actually gained strokes ball striking in three of his past four measured events, something he didn’t do previously in nearly a year, and has the perfect game to attack this venue. All three courses in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am rotation are short, narrow tracks with small greens. They put a premium on wedge and short game play, two of Kuchar’s biggest strengths.

Matt Kuchar out here living.

3️⃣🆙#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/Mdzyeqp4uN

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 27, 2021

I’m not looking to back Kuchar in the outright market yet, but +550 for a top-10 is an enticing proposition.

Pick: Matt Kuchar Top-10 Finish (+550)

Top-20 Value Picks

1. Chez Reavie (+300): Short, narrow courses where wedge play is emphasized is where you want to target Reavie. Over the past 100 rounds he ranks third in proximity from 125-150 yards, and 15th in proximity from 100-125 yards. It’s no surprise he’s found a lot of success here. Over the past fours years he has finishes of 16th and second, and also finished T3 at the 2019 U.S. Open, along with Rose, at Pebble Beach.
2. Nick Taylor (+300): The Canadian is trending in the right direction with four straight made cuts. The 2020 Pebble Beach Pro-Am has also flashed four consecutive tournaments worth of positive ball striking numbers, and has a top-10 result in addition to his win here over the past five years.
3. Ryan Armour (+600): One of the most accurate hitters on Tour, Armour is a short course specialist. He ranks 11th in proximity from 125-150 yards over his past 50 rounds, and is fresh off a T20 at the Sony, another short track, where he gained 6.3 strokes on approach. If he flashes that type of ball striking again this week, a Top-20 result is well within his range of outcomes.