Mid-Season NHL Awards Odds – Norris Trophy

Welcome back to our NHL mid-season awards odds series. So far, we’ve looked at the favorites for the Calder (rookie of the year) and the Jack Adams (coach of the year). Today, we handicap the race for the Norris Trophy.

The history of the NHL’s Norris Trophy – awarded to to the top defenseman in the league – is dominated by repeat winners; three players – Doug Harvey, Bobby Orr, and Nicklas Lidstrom – have won 22 out of the 59 times it’s been awarded.

However, recent years have bucked that trend (due in part to Lidstrom’s retirement) and four of the last six awards have gone to first timers: Zdeno Chara (2009), Duncan Keith (2010), Erik Karlsson (2012), and PK Subban (2013). (Though Keith took home his second last year.)

So will this year see a another new honoree or an old standby?

Let’s take a look at the odds for the top contenders just past the midway point of the year.

Shea Weber (Nashville Predators) – Odds: 1/1

Somehow Nashville’s Shea Weber has not won the Norris yet. This seems likely to be the year. He is the best skater on one of the top teams in the league. Weber’s 36 points rank sixth among defenseman and his 12 goals are tied for fourth.

He is also among the NHL leaders in shifts, minutes, and plus/minus. While Weber doesn’t not have the point totals of some of his competitors, his overall body of work and his team’s success make him an even money favorite to win the award.

Kevin Shattenkirk (St. Louis Blues) – Odds: 8/1

The Blues Kevin Shattenkirk is third among NHL defensemen in points and is first in power play points with 24. St. Louis is contending for not only the Central Division title, but the President’s Trophy. If The Blues overtake Nashville to win the division, Shattenkirk will have at least something on Weber. That said, Shattenkirk plays almost four minutes less than Weber per game (largely due to St. Louis depth on defense). Given that he has the likes of Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester to help out on the back end, Shattenkirk is at 8-1.

Mark Giordano (Calgary Flames) – Odds: 10/1

The diminutive (for a defenseman) Giordano is a rock on a fairly thin Flames blueline. In Calgary’s 53 games this season, Mark Giordano has nearly matched his totals from all of last year. The veteran blueliner leads all defensemen in points and is second in assists. The Flames are likely to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2008-2009, and Giordano’s presence is a big reason why. He’s 10-1 to take the prize.

Dustin Byfuglien (Winnipeg Jets) – Odds: 10/1

For a handful of seasons, Winnipeg’s Dustin Byfuglien played in the shadow of Keith in Chicago. Now leading the Jets defense, Byfuglien’s gritty play is a difference maker. He is second among defenseman with 13 goals, seventh in total points, third in shot attempts, and is number one by a large margin with over 100 penalty minutes. The Jets should be in the playoffs for the first time since returning from Atlanta, and Byfuglien deserves a good portion of the credit. He is 10-1 to win the Norris.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Phoenix Coyotes) – Odds: 20/1

Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson will probably win a Norris Trophy at some point. He leads rear-guards in goals with 16 and tops all Coyotes in that category. Ekman-Larsson is second among NHL defensemen in shots, and is number one among all players in game winning goals. However, the Yotes are having a dismal season and it seems likely that “OEL” will have to wait at least a year to take home the statue. He’s 20-1 this season.

Honorable mention:

Drew Doughty (Los Angeles Kings)

Kris Letang (Pittsburgh Penguins)

Duncan Keith (Chicago Blackhawks)

John Carlson (Washington Capitals)

(Photo credit: Casey Fleser from Nashville, TN (Uppercut (59 / 365)) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)