2020 AL Rookie of the Year Odds See Luis Robert, Kyle Lewis in Dead Heat
- White Sox OF Luis Robert and Mariners OF Kyle Lewis are tied atop the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year odds
- Lewis has exploded onto the scene and leads Robert in most categories
- Who presents better value for bettors: the preseason favorite or the red-hot sleeper?
Sometimes it’s the highly-touted prospect that takes home Rookie of the Year honors. Sometimes it’s a name that comes out of nowhere. The American League ROY race could still go either way.
Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert has been near the top of the AL Rookie of the Year odds since the market opened in February. He was third on MLB’s “prospect watch” in 2019 and came into this season with a lot of hype.
On that same list, Kyle Lewis was the 10th … among Mariners prospects, having been held back by injuries.
One-third of the way through this 60-game season, they are now co-favorites to win the AL Rookie of the Year award at odds of +300.
2020 AL Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds at BetMGM |
|---|---|
| Kyle Lewis, SEA | +300 |
| Luis Robert, CHW | +300 |
| Randy Dobnak, MIN | +600 |
| Jesus Luzardo, OAK | +800 |
| Brendan McKay, TB | +1000 |
| Casey Mize, DET | +1000 |
| Nate Pearson, TOR | +1200 |
| Jo Adell, LAA | +1400 |
| Evan White, SEA | +1600 |
| Brady Singer, KC | +1800 |
| AJ Puk, OAK | +2000 |
| Forrest Whitley, HOU | +2000 |
| Wander Franco, TB | +2500 |
| Deivi Garcia, NYY | +4000 |
| Nick Madrigal, CHW | +4000 |
| Ryan Mountcastle, BAL | +4000 |
Odds as of Aug. 18th.
Robert opened as second-favorite behind Casey Mize, but it didn’t take long for the Cuban to take over top spot. Since March 19th, he’s been on a steady climb. The latest update is the only instance in 2020 where his odds haven’t improved.
A big reason for that is Lewis. Once a top college prospect who suffered a serious knee injury after turning pro, Lewis’ first appearance on the board sees him tied for top spot.
Offense Dominating AL Rookie of the Year Conversation
Both players have absolutely raked to start the season, and are multi-category stars.
After 23 games each, they’ve got a healthy lead on their competition.
Kyle Lewis vs Luis Robert
| .345 (1st) | Batting Average | .286 (6th) |
| 5 (T-1st) | Home Runs | 5 (T-1st) |
| 17 (1st) | RBI | 13 (3rd) |
| .420 (2nd) | On-Base Percentage | .341 (6th) |
| .529 (4th) |
Slugging Percentage | .536 (3rd) |
| 1.1 | WAR | 1.2 |
Ordinal number in parentheses represents rank among AL Rookies.
If Lewis was having a slightly more pedestrian start, Robert would be alone in top spot.
It took Kyle Lewis 136 MLB at-bats to reach 10 home runs. Fewest at-bats by Mariners to reach 10 HRs:
Dae-Ho Lee (2016) 101
Alvin Davis (1984) 111
Jose Cruz Jr. (1997) 120
Kyle Lewis (2019-20) 136— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) August 11, 2020
After belting 39 homers and 145 RBI with a .367 average and .655 slugging percentage in college, Lewis’ numbers fell off in the minors. In about 100 more games, his average, slugging percentage, and OBP all fell 100 points.
The power wasn’t really there either. In 18 games last year, things started to come around though. While his average stayed at a respectable .268, he hit six homers in 18 games.
🚨 Luis Robert HR (5) 🚨
433 feet 🚀
115.5 mph exit velocity 🔥
1st career multi-homer game 👀 pic.twitter.com/fnmfl2lCje— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 18, 2020
For Robert, there has never been any question about his numbers. In fact, coming to North America has seen his slugging totals increase slightly. So if we’re looking at longevity this year, Robert likely has the edge.
AL Rookie of the Year Field is Shallow
When looking at the names on the table above, most of them don’t have enough time to make a dent in the race.
Some (Madrigal) have a lot of ground to make up, while others (Puk) have been hurt. Others just haven’t gotten the call, and if they have, they aren’t getting the reps.
That said, Randy Dobnak is an interesting name to follow.
Randy Dobnak in 2020
| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/BB | IP | OPP BA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Dobnak, MIN | 4-1 | 1.42 | 0.87 | 14/6 | 25.1 | 1.78 | 1.0 |
While Rich Hill and Homer Bailey may be close to returning, it’ll be impossible to pry Dobnak out of the Twins’ rotation. He has been the best pitcher on a staff that includes Jose Berrios.
ERA leader Randy Dobnak doesn’t care about Statcast, he just gets outs. pic.twitter.com/XnKsLSsE6S
— Cooper (@CoopCarlson) August 16, 2020
He’s actually got a brief, yet dominant, track record in the majors, too. He posted a 1.59 ERA in nine games (five starts) last year, with a 2.90 FIP.
We’ll See Separation in ROY Race
While Kyle Lewis’ hot start may have you wanting to invest, hold off for the time being.
See how the next 10-15 games go. If he continues to dominate, there should still be similar value there; it’s hard to see bettors completely abandoning Robert given his pedigree. If Lewis slips up and you think he can rebound? That’s the time to invest.
Allowing for a little bit of correction from Dobnak, he’s still the only other name o consider in a field that’s relatively weak and running out of time. Otherwise, bank on Robert going wire-to-wire.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
