Astros No Longer Favorites in AL Pennant Odds for First Time Since Opening Day

• The New York Yankees have won 14 of their last 16 games
• The Yankees averaged 8.2 runs per game over their final 14 contests in June
• Their pitching staff continues to struggle as they had a 5.46 ERA in June

Stop the presses! For the first time since the start of the season, the Houston Astros are no longer favored to win the American League Pennant. It’s not that they’ve played badly, but rather that the New York Yankees have been on another level of late. Which team is the best bet for this futures prop ?

2019 American League Pennant Odds

*Odds taken 07/04/19

Yankees Are on Fire

While the Astros and Yankees have the same number of wins (55), there’s no question as to who the better team right now is. The Yankees have won 14 of their last 16 games, which includes taking three of four from the Astros.

If you take a look at a bigger snapshot, the Yankees were 17-13 at one point this season. Since then, they are 38-16. Their offense has been crushing it as their 6.8 runs per game in the month of June was the best in baseball. The only question is whether offense alone can carry them through the playoffs.

Pitching is Still a Concern for New York

The Yankees were 16-9 in the month of June but much of their success was due to their offense. As mentioned, their bats produced 6.8 runs per game as the team was first in RBI’s per game and was second in the league in OPS. They actually averaged 8.2 runs per game over their final 14 contests. No wonder their AL Pennant odds are now +200.

However, their pitching staff was nothing short of a disaster in the month of June as their team ERA was 5.46 (26th in the Majors) and allowed opponents to bat .285. Only the Toronto Blue Jays staff posted a worse number. To put that in perspective, no other American League team that’s currently in playoff position finished worse than 10th with that stat.

Starting Rotation is a Concern for Yankees

There’s no question that the Yankees have what’s arguably the best batting lineup in the big leagues, but pitching is what counts in the fall. Do they really have enough to get them through the playoffs? James Paxton was brought in to be the staff ace, but he has a 4.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He needs to step up.

Even if he does, who else is there? Masahiro Tanaka and JA Happ would be their Game 2 and Game 3 starters as of right now. Tanaka has been good (1.18 WHIP) but you’d rather him as your no. 3 starter. Happ, meanwhile, has a lofty 5.23 ERA this season.

Astros Were Banged Up

The Yankees have pulled in front of the Astros in terms of the odds, but remember that the Astros are pretty banged up. Of course, the Yankees have dealt with injuries too but the Astros are still without Carlos Correa and had to live without Jose Altuve and George Springer for a while. If they’ve faded a little bit, you can take that into account as a reason why.

Astros Are the Better Bet

When you look at the whole picture, the Astros are the better team. Sure, the Yankees have better bats, but their lack of quality at the top of the rotation could really hurt in the playoffs. Teams tend to skate by in the regular season with decent starters but when the chips are on the table, they’ll really miss having an ace.

As for the Astros, they have the Cy Young front runner in Justin Verlander and can back him up with Gerrit Cole, who has a 1.04 WHIP and 3.28 ERA, and Wade Miley, who has a 3.28 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That trio – especially having to see Verlander and Cole twice in a seven-game series – gives the Astros the edge.

Add in a batting lineup that is maybe not as prolific as the Yankees but is still pretty darn good, and you have a good opportunity to buy-in on the Astros right now.

Pick: Houston Astros (+200)