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Braves vs Dodgers Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Probable Pitchers

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Oct 18, 2021 · 11:30 AM PDT

Atlanta Braves' Eddie Rosario celebrates a walk-off hit
Atlanta Braves' Eddie Rosario is congratulated by teammates after hitting the game winning RBI single during the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of baseball's National League Championship Series Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021, in Atlanta. The Braves defeated the Dodgers 5-4 to lead the series 2-0 games. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
  • The Dodgers are -196 home favorites over the Braves in Game 3 of the NLCS
  • Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34) will pitch for the Braves against Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47)
  • A look at the odds and matchups can be found below with a prediction

The Los Angeles Dodgers will try to get back into the National League Division Series when they host the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 at 5:08 pm ET Tuesday at Dodger Stadium.

The Braves (93-74, 47-36 road) won the first two games of the best-of-seven series over the weekend in Atlanta. That gave the Braves five wins in a row and 17 victories in their last 20 games.

The Dodgers (110-60, 60-24 home) have lost back-to-back games for the first time since Sept. 8-9. In between those pair of consecutive losses, Los Angeles went 22-5.

The Dodgers are big favorites in Game 3, which will be televised by TBS.

Braves vs Dodgers Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Atlanta Braves +164 +1.5 (-142) Over 7.5 (-114)
Los Angeles Dodgers -196 -1.5 (+118) Under 7.5 (-106)

Odds as of October 18th at FanDuel.

The moneyline has inched up after the Dodgers opened at -187. The low temperature is forecast for 52 degrees with partly cloudy skies and wind from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

Probable Pitchers

Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 regular season) will take the mound for the Braves against Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47).

Both will be working with six days of rest after being asked to pitch on three days of rest in the National League Division Series.

Morton vs Buehler

Charlie Morton
VS
Walker Buehler
14-6 Record 16-4
3.34 ERA 2.47
3.32 xERA 3.08
1.04 WHIP 0.96
3.72 SO/W 4.08

Morton lasted 3.1 in innings against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers in Game 4 and did not factor in the decision as the Braves went on to clinch the best-of-five series. He gave up two runs on four hits while striking out five and walking two.

In his last six starts, Morton has a 1-2 record despite a fine 2.70 ERA. He has notched 20 quality starts in 35 outings this season, though the Braves are just 18-17 when he takes the hill.

Morton has an 8-4 record with a 3.05 ERA in 16 road starts. In eight starts in the daytime, Morton is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA.

Morton faced the Dodgers twice in the regular season, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and is 2-2 against them lifetime with a 4.42 ERA in seven games (six starts).

At Dodger Stadium, Morton is 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA in three games (two starts). He famously allowed one run in four relief innings to get the win for the Houston Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series at Chavez Ravine.

Morton has a 7-4 career record in the postseason and a 3.44 ERA in 15 games (14 starts).

Buehler went on short rest in Game 4 against the San Francisco Giants at home and got a no-decision. He allowed one run and three hits in 4.1 innings with four strikeouts and two walks.

Buehler won his last two regular season starts but is 0-1 with 3.38 ERA in two postseason starts.

Of Buehler’s 35 starts this year, 28 have been of the quality variety and the Dodgers are 23-12 in those games. He has been very good at home with an 11-2 record and 2.04 ERA in 20 starts and is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA in six starts during the day.

Against the Braves, Buehler is 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA in six career starts. He faced them once this year in the regular season and had a no-decision Aug. 31 when he yielded two runs in seven innings.

Buehler will be making his 14th postseason start. He is 3-2 with an outstanding 2.50 ERA.

Start for Arcia?

Braves manager Brian Snitker might work utility player Orlando Arcia into the starting lineup as he is 4 for 9 against Buehler with two home runs.

Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is 4 for 8 with a double off Buehler. Center fielder Adam Duvall is 1 for 9, though.

Batting Averages vs Starting Pitchers

Braves Batters Batting Average vs Buehler Dodgers Batters Batting Average vs Morton
Travis d’Arnaud .500 Gavin Lux .500
Orlando Arcia .444 Matt Beaty .500
Dansby Swanson .364 Justin Turner .353
Ozzie Albies .267 Mookie Betts .300
Austin Riley .250 Cody Bellinger .273
Joc Pederson .250 Albert Pujols .242
Freddie Freeman .200 Chris Taylor .200
Adam Duvall .111 Trea Turner .111
Guillermo Heredia .000 AJ Pollock .000
Ehire Adrianza .000 Corey Seager .000
Johan Camargo .000 Austin Barnes .000
Will Smith .000

Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner is 6 for 17 versus Morton with two doubles and one homer. Turner is expected to be back in the starting lineup after being limited to a pinch-hitting appearance in Game 2 because of neck soreness.

Right fielder Mookie Betts has had some success with Morton, going 9 for 30 with two doubles and a homer. However, second baseman Trea Turner (1 for 9), left fielder AJ Pollock (0 for 11) and shortstop Corey Seager (0 for 9) are a combined 1 for 29 against the veteran right-hander.

Braves vs Dodgers Pick

The team have split eight games this season, but the Dodgers have won all three in Los Angeles. They swept a series from the Braves from Aug. 30-Sept. 1.

The Braves walked off the Dodgers for the second night in a row Sunday when Eddie Rosario’s RBI single in ninth inning gave Atlanta a 5-4 victory in Game 4. Rosario had four hits.

The Dodgers were in the same situation in last year’s NLCS against the Braves. They fell behind 2-0 and 3-1 before coming back to win the series and eventually the World Series.

Los Angeles has a veteran team and is tough at home, so don’t expect any panic. The Dodgers will get back in the series with a win.

The Picks: Dodgers moneyline (-196); Under 7.5 (-106)

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