Braves vs Phillies Odds, Predictions, and Probable Pitchers (July 24)

• The Philadelphia Phillies are home favorites against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday night
• Left-hander Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.50) will pitch for the Braves and face Vince Velasquez (3-4, 5.00)
• The odds and pitching matchups can be found below with a prediction

Two teams chasing the first-place New York Mets in the National League East meet when the Atlanta Braves visit the Philadelphia Phillies at 6:05 p.m. ET Saturday at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies (48-48) are in the second place and four games behind the Mets while the Braves (47-49) are five games off the pace and in third place.

The Phillies ended a three-game losing streak Friday night with a 5-1 victory over the Braves in the second game of the four-game series. The Braves have lost five of their last eight games and are underdogs Saturday.

Braves vs Phillies Odds

Odds as of July 24th at DraftKings.

The Phillies opened as -115 favorites on the moneyline and the odds quickly rose to -120.

Probable Pitchers

Left-hander Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.50) gets the ball for the Braves and will face Vince Velasquez (3-4, 5.00)

Smyly vs Velasquez

Smyly had a no-decision his last time out last Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays. He allowed three runs and four hits in 5.2 innings while striking out six and walking two.

Smyly seemed happier with getting a rare hit.

DREW SMYLY YES SIR pic.twitter.com/TC2kphKa3C

— kacee hearts austin riley (@johnnyangeI) July 18, 2021

Smyly has recorded five quality starts in 16 outings this season. He is 5-2 with a 4.34 ERA in nine road games and 4-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 11 starts at night.

In both starts against the Phillies this season, Smyly has not been involved in the decision but has been charged with eight runs (seven earned) in 9.1 innings. Prior to this year, Smyly had faced the Phillies just once and that was a reliever.

He has a 6.10 career ERA against Philadelphia and is 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA in six starts at Citizens Bank Park as he spent part of the 2019 season with the Phillies.

Velasquez is 0-2 with an 8.78 ERA in his last three starts but pitched well in his last outing. Facing the visiting Miami Marlins last Saturday, Velasquez tossed five shutout innings and allowed only one hit, though he did not factor in the decision while striking out four and walking two.

Vince Velasquez, Dirty 81mph Knuckle Curve. 😨 pic.twitter.com/owrDYy4vG9

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 30, 2021

Velasquez is 2-1 with a 4.04 ERA in 10 games, including seven starts, at Citizens Bank Park in 2021 and has a 3-2 record at night with a 4.34 ERA in 12 games (nine starts). Just three of his 15 starts have been on the quality variety.

The Braves have been a historically tough matchup for Velasquez as he is 1-6 lifetime against them with a 4.57 ERA in 15 games (13 starts). He faced them once this season and got a no-decision May 8 on the road despite yielding one run in 5.1 innings.

Batting Averages vs Starting Pitchers

Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies appears poised for a big game. He is 6 for 16 (.375) against Velasquez with three triples and two home runs and has also hit a double in five of his last six games.

Albies is a giant among small infielders.

Braves prove that Ozzie Albies is taller than Ronald Torreyes and Jean Segura is not happy with his teammate pic.twitter.com/Oph0rfPeWt

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 23, 2021

Phillies second baseman Jean Segura has thrived against Smyly in a small sample size, going 2 for 2 with a double and two walks. Segura has driven in a run in five straight games, tying a career best.

Left fielder Andrew McCutchen is 3 for 9 with two homers off Smyly but shortstop Didi Gregorius is 1 for 12 (.083).

Third baseman Alec Bohm returned to the lineup Friday night and went 1 for 4. He had been on the COVID-19 injured list since July 11.

Braves vs Phillies Pick

The Phillies are 8-5 against the Braves, including 6-1 at home, and are 29-14 against Atlanta at Citizens Bank Park since the start of the 2017 season.

On Friday night, Bryce Harper stole three bases, including home, to spark the Phillies’ win. J.T. Realmuto hit his 10th homer and Jean Segura had a tiebreaking, two-run double.

Harp wreaking havoc on the basepaths 😤 pic.twitter.com/Fp7nBoHC2b

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 24, 2021

While it is hard to buck that trend, it is also difficult to pick Velasquez to beat the Braves. Let’s go with the hot hand of Smyly.

The Pick: Braves +100